I'm Back...

Sorry for the lack of posts recently but you know how the holidays get. Oscar world is getting very exciting with numerous critics awards being dolled out (which I will have a breakdown for you in no time at all), and buzz shifting dramatically away from Dreamgirls. I have reviews of Dreamgirls, Pursuit of Happyness, and Apacolypto on the way along with complete prediction changes.

Things are heating up dramatically.

If you would like me to research the history of any given critics group for their past accuract let me know which one and I will include it on the breakdown later this week. Let me know...

The Globes Are...Interesting...

'Bobby" gets a Best Drama nod, Ryan Gosling gets snubbed, Leonardo gets two lead nominations, Chiwetel Ejiofor for "Kinky Boots", "Babel" leads the race with nods, Toni Collette for lead actress, two Clint Eastwood director nominations missing, Foreign Film being the most exciting race, and the wide open nature of supporting actor are just a few of the strange developments that the Globe revealed.

Who gets help?

Babel gets a huge boost here and could likely defeat The Departed in Drama race. HFPA loves the type of movie Babel is (set internationaly with four languages).

Dicaprio and Eastwood get double nominations each which mean nothing other than they could split their own vote come voting time.

Dreamgirls could lose to Borat, which would be ridiculous and further proof that HFPA is a sucker for political commentary despite its cinematic merit.

Emily Blunt for Supporting Actress!!! I loved her performance in The Devil Wears Prada and was hoping it would get the type of recognition Will Ferrell got last year. Who knows, maybe it could be more for her?

United 93 gets completely shut out, but then again so did Munich, Capote, and Crash last year.

Big help for Peter O'Toole is was starting to fade from memory in the shadow of Forest Whitaker, same thing for Will Smith.

HUGE boost for Mark Wahlberg and Ben Affleck here, could Affleck walk away with a win? Eddie vs. Jack vs. Ben vs. Brad. WIDE OPEN here.

Big help for Adriana Barraza and Maggie Gyllenhaal who seemed to be all but forgotten in the major critic groups.

Dreamgirls and Little Miss Sunshine get snubbed from the Screenplay categories and Half Nelson gets shut out completely. Not a huge surprise there.

Flags of Our Fathers gets the snub that everyone was expecting and Little Children takes its place.

It is important to understand that the Globes are not exactly a precursor. The voting ballots for the Oscars will be turned in by the time the show airs, but the nominations have some effect, but a minimal one at best. The Globes are an awards show by themselves and the HFPA do not act to influence anything other than themselves. This is why so many view the Globe nominations as crazy, but they are only mixed up when viewed under the scope of the Oscars. So relax, and enjoy the circus

Updates coming soon with predictions. A LOT to think about.

Globe Nominations

Picture, Drama:
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Little Children"
"The Queen"

Actress, Drama:
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"

Actor, Drama: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Picture, Musical or Comedy:
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Thank You for Smoking"

Actress, Musical or Comedy:
Annette Bening, "Running With Scissors"
Toni Collette, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Beyonce Knowles, "Dreamgirls"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Renee Zellweger, "Miss Potter"

Actor, Musical or Comedy:
Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"
Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Aaron Eckhart, "Thank You for Smoking"
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "Kinky Boots"
Will Ferrell, "Stranger than Fiction"

Supporting Actress:
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Emily Blunt, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Supporting Actor:
Ben Affleck, "Hollywoodland"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"
Brad Pitt, "Babel"
Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed"

Director:
Clint Eastwood, "Flags of Our Fathers"
Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima"
Steven Frears, "The Queen"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

Screenplay:
Guillermo Arriaga, "Babel"
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, "Little Children"
Patrick Marber, "Notes on a Scandal"
William Monahan, "The Departed"
Peter Morgan, "The Queen"

Foreign Language:
"Apocalypto," USA
"Letters from Iwo Jima," USA/Japan
"The Lives of Others," Germany
"Pan's Labyrinth," Mexico
"Volver" Spain

Animated Film:
"Cars"
"Happy Feet"
"Monster House"

Original Score:
Alexandre Desplat, "The Painted Veil"
Clint Mansell, "The Fountain"
Gustavo Santaolalla, "Babel"
Carlo Siliotto, "Nomad"
Hans Zimmer, "The Da Vinci Code"

Original Song:
"A Father's Way" from "The Pursuit of Happyness"
"Listen" from "Dreamgirls"
"Never Gonna Break My Faith" from "Bobby"
"The Song of the Heart" from "Happy Feet"
"Try Not to Remember" from "Home of the Brave"

San Francisco Critics Love 'Little Children'

Best Picture – Little Children
Best Director – Paul Greengrass, United 93
Best Actor – Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
Best Actress – Helen Mirren, The Queen
Best Supporting Actor – Jackie Earle Haley, Little Childen
Best Supporting Actress – Adriana Barraza, Babel
Best Screenplay – Little Children
Best Foreign Film – Pan’s Labyrinth

BFCA Noms

Almost everything nominated is in my top five or the FYC sections...I think I am on the right track here. Look for some prediction updates after the Globes announce their nominations.


BEST PICTURE:
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Queen
United 93

BEST ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Blood Diamond”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Departed”
Ryan Gosling – “Half Nelson”
Peter O’Toole – “Venus”
Will Smith – “The Pursuit of Happyness”
Forest Whitaker – “The Last King of Scotland”

BEST ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz – “Volver”
Judi Dench – “Notes on a Scandal”
Helen Mirren – “The Queen”
Meryl Streep – “The Devil Wears Prada”
Kate Winslet – “Little Children”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Ben Affleck – “Hollywoodland”
Alan Arkin – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Adam Beach – “Flags of Our Fathers”
Djimon Hounsou – “Blood Diamond”
Eddie Murphy – “Dreamgirls”
Jack Nicholson – “The Departed”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Adriana Barraza – “Babel”
Cate Blanchett – “Notes on a Scandal”
Jennifer Hudson – “Dreamgirls”
Rinko Kikuchi – “Babel”
Catherine O’Hara – “For Your Consideration”
Emma Thompson – “Stranger Than Fiction”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE:
Babel
Bobby
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
A Prairie Home Companion

BEST DIRECTOR:
Bill Condon – “Dreamgirls”
Clint Eastwood – “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Stephen Frears – “The Queen”
Paul Greengrass – “United 93”
Martin Scorsese – “The Departed”

BEST WRITER:
Michael Arndt – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Guillermo Arriaga – “Babel”
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta – “Little Children”
Zach Helm – “Stranger Than Fiction”
William Monahan – “The Departed”
Peter Morgan – “The Queen”

NYFCC Winners

New York Film Critics Circle Awards...

PICTURE: United 93
Runners Up: The Queen and The Departed

DIRECTOR: Scorsese, The Departed
Runners Up: Stephen Frears, The Queen and Clint Eastwood, Letters...

ACTOR: Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
Runners Up: Ryan Gosling and Sacha Baron Cohen

ACTRESS: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Runners Up: Judi Dench and Meryl Streep

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Runners Up: Eddie Murphy and Steve Carell

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Runners Up: Shareeka Epps and Catherine O'Hara

SCREENPLAY: The Queen
Runners Up: The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine

Washington DC Film Critics Weigh In...

PICTURE: United 93
DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
ACTOR: Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
ACTRESS: Helen Mirren, The Queen
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Little Miss Sunshine
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Thank You For Smoking
BREAKTHROUGH: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
ENSEMBLE: Little Miss Sunshine
FOREIGN FILM: Pan's Labyrinth
DOCUMENTARY: An Inconvenient Truth
ANIMATED: Happy Feet

LAFCA Awards 'Letters' and 'The Queen'

Picture:
Letters From Iwo Jima
Runner Up: The Queen

Director:
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Runner Up: Clint Eastwood, Flags of our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima

Actor:
TIE Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat AND Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland

Actress:
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Runner Up: Penelope Cruz, Volver

Supporting Actor:
Michael Sheen, The Queen
Runner Up: Sergi Lopez, Pan's Labyrinth

Supporting Actress:
Luminata Gheorghiu, The Death of Mr. Lazarescu
Runner Up: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Screenplay:
The Queen
Runner Up: Little Miss Sunshine

New York FIlm Critics Online Awards...

Picture: The Queen
Director: Stephen Frears, The Queen
Screenplay: The Queen
Actor: Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Supporting Actor: Michael Sheen, The Queen
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls TIE Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration
Ensemble: Little Miss Sunshine
Breakthrough: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Documentary: An Inconcenvient Truth
Foreign Language: Pan's Labyrinth
Animated: Happy Feet
Score: The Illusionist

Top Ten:
Babel
The Fountain
Inland Empire
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Thank You For Smoking
Volver
Water

Boston Film Critics Speak Out

Best Picture:
The Departed
Runner Up: United 93

Best Director:
Martin Scorcese, The Departed
Runner Up: Paul Greengrass, United 93

Best Actor:
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Runner Up: Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

Best Actress:
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Runner Up: Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal

Best Supporting Actor:
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
Runner Up: TIE: Michael Sheen, The Queen and Alec Baldwin, The Departed/Running With Scissors/The Good Shephard

Best Supporting Actress:
Shareeka Epps, Half Nelson
Runner Up: Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Ensemble:
United 93
Runner Up: The Departed

Screenplay:
The Departed
Runner Up: The Queen

Forgein Language:
Pan's Labyrinth
Runner Up: Volver

Documentary:
TIE: Deliver Us From Evil/Shut Up and Sing

New Filmmaker:
Ryan Fleck, Half Nelson

AFI Announces Top Ten

Babel
Borat: Cultural Learnings Of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Half Nelson
Happy Feet
Inside Man
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
United 93

Anyone notice an absense? AFI left out The Departed for The Devil Wears Prada and Inside Man

HUGE shocker!

Prediction Updates

Post NBR predictions are up and running without any huge changes. Actually, most of the more significant shifts are in the "For Your Consideration" sections. I am also ordering the predictions according to most likely to receive a nomination, instead of the my old way of alphabetizing it. Check it out.

More predictions after Globes and LA Critics announce

P.S. I LOVE how open the supporting Actress race is. Brittany Murphy????

NBR: Naturally Bizarre Recognition

Commentary Below

Variety Reports - LETTERS OF IWO JIMA BEST FILM!

Best Film: LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
Best Director: MARTIN SCORSESE, The Departed
Best Actor: FOREST WHITAKER, The Last King of Scotland
Best Actress: HELEN MIRREN, The Queen
Best Supporting Actor: DJIMON HOUNSOU, Blood Diamond
Best Supporting Actress: CATHERINE O'HARA, For Your Consideration
Best Foreign Film: VOLVER
Best Documentary: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
Best Animated Feature: CARS
Best Ensemble Cast: THE DEPARTED
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: RYAN GOSLING, Half Nelson
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: (2)
JENNIFER HUDSON, Dreamgirls and RINKO KIKUCHI, Babel

Best Directorial Debut: JASON REITMAN, Thank You for Smoking
Best Original Screenplay: ZACH HELM, Stranger Than Fiction
Best Adapted Screenplay: RON NYSWANER, The Painted Veil


The top 10 from the National Board of Review:

"Letters From Iwo Jima"
"Babel"
"Blood Diamond"
"The Departed"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"Flags Of Our Fathers"
"The History Boys"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Notes on a Scandal"
"The Painted Veil"


Um....wow. No Dreamgirls, no 9/11 films, no Little Children, no The Queen. I was on the edge of including Letters from Iwo Jima for the win, but I wasn't sure if the film was seen enough. The Devil Wears Prada and Blood Diamond get some pretty big boosts here, but I can't imagine that they would be put into the final five.

Djimon Hounsou and Catherine O'Hara get HUGE kudos here and their performances are now back on the market. The Painted Veil and Stranger Than Fiction grab some screenplay noms that are somewhat expected, but still surprising.

Forest Whitaker gets a renewal of the buzz that had long since faded, and is now reentering the frontrunner battle with Peter O'Toole.

This is very very interesting now.

Quick Thank You

Last Tuesday, I put up a counter at the bottom of the blog to see how much the page is being viewed, and I am proud to say that after one week, I have 424 hits. That is probably small pickens to the larger bloggers out there, but I just started. Thanks to those who read. Thanks so much.

It's Question Time

You will have to answer this one a little later than tonight since it lines up with the NBR announcements.

Given that the NBR's top ten had all five Best Picture nominees last year, which five of the top ten do you think will get the nominations? And if NBR missed one movie that will get the nod, what is it?

Go to town! Be realistic.

Updates on Predictions...

I will have a full update on predictions tomorrow night barring the release of the NBR announcements. But for fun, here are the NBR predictions from moi.

Best Picture: The Queen vs. The Departed vs. Little Miss Sunshine
Advantage: The Departed

Top Ten:
The Queen
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Babel
United 93
Little Miss Sunshine
Flags Of Our Fathers
Little Children
Half Nelson
Children Of Men

Best Actor: Ryan Gosling vs. Peter O'Toole
Advantage: Gosling

Best Actress: Helen Mirren vs. Kate Winslet vs. Maggie Gyllenhaal
Advantage: Mirren

Best Supporting Actress: Rinku Kikuchi vs. Jennifer Hudson
Advantage: Hudson

Best Supporting Actor: Jack Nicholson vs. Alan Arkin vs. Brad Pitt
Advantage: Nicholson

Best Director: Martin Scorsese vs. Stephen Frears
Advantage: Scorsese

Breakthrough Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen vs. Adam Beach
Advantage: Adam Beach

Breakthrough Actress: The loser of supporting actress vs. Shareeka Epps
Advantage: Epps

Best Adapted Screenplay: Little Children vs. Thank You For Smoking
Advantage: Little Children

Best Original Screenplay: Babel vs. The Queen
Advantage: Babel

Best Debut Director: Ryan Fleck

Best Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth

Best Foreign Language Film: Volver vs. Pan's Labyrinth
Advantage: Volver

Best Ensemble: Little Miss Sunshine vs. United 93
Advantage: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Animated Feature: Happy Feet vs. A Scanner Darkly
Advantage: Happy Feet

Quickies

Babel

Alejandro González Iñárritu's recent depiction into the morose connectivity of us all brings up a lot of seemingly important and timely questions without ever truly answering any of them. Though technically beautifully crafted, Iñárritu's story of the intertwining lives surounding the attack of an American tourist (Blanchett) in Morocco and the subsequent search for understading loses its impact simply because it tries too hard. Instead of being a subtle foray into the paradox of lost communication in a time of universal similarity, Babel gets bogged down by a hit-you-over-the-head simplicity that has doomed other films such as The Woodsman to mediocrity.

The acting is superb and the diretion to match, but nothing can make up for the script that tries too hard. Yes, we get that we don't understand each other any more, but what more can the film offer other than that all too obvious assertion? Ultimately, the most interesting storyline, Rinku Kikuchi's brilliantly crafted deaf-mute character, seems to be the least involved with any of the film's other major players. Sure, she acts as the only representation of someone who literally cannot communicate her words or emotions, but it remains unclear if Babel is a story that uses one event as a microcosm for a larger issue, or one event plus a random person.

It could not have been crafted more beautifully with its precise direction, emotionally draining acting, and haunting score, but Babel falls apart, ironically, in it's overcommunication.

Grade: C+

Satellite Noms Announced

The Satellite Awards tend to nominate a larger group of people, and because they separate their nominations into comedy and drama like the Globes do, they tend to make things pretty exciting. The Satallite Awards narrow the field, but by nominating almost 7 films/performances per category, they introduce some new names too. Which is just fun. Here's the breakdown...

Dreamgirls - 11
Flags Of Our Father - 10
Babel - 8
The Departed - 6
Little Miss Sunshine - 5
The Queen - 4
Litte Children - 4
Notes On A Scandal - 3

Duh! - The Ones We Expect

Helen Mirren - Nominated for lead actress. Helps her buzz which many feared would fade. A win would be nice though.

Dreamgirls - Knocking out 11 nominations, it leads the pack for the first time, which is not the last time the film will have that distinction.

Judi Dench - Will she ever not be nominated?

Jack Nicholson - Heeeeeeeere's Jack!

Nice! - The Ones That Needed It

Ryan Gosling and Half Nelson - Gosling is starting to become an automatic mention with his ISA nomination and Half Nelson sweeping the Gothams. A snub here would have hurt though. It helps that the film picked up the best pic nod as well.

Kate Winslet - Buzz has practically dissappeared. This puts her back on the map.

Forest Whitaker - Same situation as Winslet. Snub was possible here...good that it didn't happen.

Adam Beach and Flags - Not on anyone's top five anymore. This nod helps bring him back into discussion, along with a film many are dropping from their predictions.

Abigail Breslin - If she had been dropped here, a lot of doubt would have surrounded her buzz.

Aaron Eckhardt, Gretchen Mol, and Annette Bening - For similar reasons. They NEED buzz.

What!? - The Ones That Are Confusing

Leonardo Dicarpio - Lead for Blood Diamond and supporting for The Departed!? Category Confusion strikes again!

Aurora Borealis - Joshua Jackson and Donald Sutherland get nods for lead and supporting respectively. Is there anything here? The movie was well received by the critics, so I guess you never know.

Will Ferrell and Joseph Cross - Nice to get the critical praise, but it probably stops here for them, lest the globes shake things up.

Toni Collette - With all the hooplah about Breslin and Arkin, no one has been even close to predicting her in most top ten lists, let alone top five. Cool, but out of nowhere.

Where!? - The Ones That Are Missing

Will Smith - Huge buzz usually translates to letdowns a la Memoirs and it appears like Smith might be another one. Perhaps the performance is good enough to make an incredible trailer, but not a movie. But he will probably bounce back. We need more info!

Michael Sheen - Wow, this could hurt him. The movie belongs to Mirren as it is, and if he can't separate himself a little bit, then he could be forgotten.

Eddie Murphy - Surprising! Some prognosticators have Murphy taking home gold come Kodak Theater time, but he fails to deliver here. Could just be a blip in the radar, but I think supporting actor is WIDE open.

United 93 or WTC - They were not having the 9/11 films. Not even a little bit. This could be indicative of the future, but hopefully only for WTC, since United 93 is a vastly superior film than most in the running for the short list. cough Babel cough.

Shareeka Epps - This could have sent her buzz out of the house, but she fails to garner a nod here. Perhaps she's being Gyllanhaal'ed.

Adriana Barraza - Eeek! Many thought she was on the upswing for her powerhouse of a performance in Inarittu's ensemble, but the lack of a nomination here says otherwise.

Things are just getting interesting and I can't wait to see how this pans out.