The Opened Envelope

Final Predictions

2008-02-24T15:24:00.002-06:00

So I sort of fell off the map recently with some school stuff piling up, but I couldn't possibly miss out on making my final predictions. So here goes...

Best Picture: No Country For Old Men
Best Director: The Coens
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actress: Julie Christie
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan
Best Original Screenplay: Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country For Old Men
Best Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Best Foreign Film: The Counterfeiters
Best Documentary Feature: Sicko
Best Documentary Short: Sari's Mother
Best Short Animation: Madame Tutlie-Putli
Best Short Live Action: At Night
Best Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Best Cinematography: The Assassination Of Jesse James...
Best Costume Design: Atonement
Best Editing: No Country For Old Men
Best Makeup: La Vie En Rose
Best Original Score: Atonement
Best Original Song: "Falling Slowly" - Once
Best Sound Editing: Transformers
Best Sound Mixing: Transformers
Best Visual Effects: Transformers

There Will Be Blood

2008-01-29T16:55:00.000-06:00

So I just screened There Will Be Blood, and that film is simply amazing. There is a level of significance and sophistication that is so clear and powerful that its almost hard to watch. I found myself literally gasping at seemingly unimportant moments that were just immaculately created. The oil-lined grave would be one of them. God that was a creepy image.

The score was particularly incredible and the AMPAS' disqualification of it is an absolute tragedy. Johnny Greenwood's score expresses chaotic melancholy and sense of crumbling reality that is present in the protagonist's world view. Incredible work.

And to say that Daniel Day Lewis deserves an Oscar is an understatement. This performance is so good he should get an automatic Oscar next year too. It doesn't seem like one award really does this work justice. DDL gives one of the best performances I have ever seen, and he is truly mesmerizing.

A Masterpiece.

FYC Ad Of The Day

2008-01-25T12:59:00.001-06:00

Stunning.

2008 Anticipated List

2008-01-24T22:29:00.000-06:00

Not the MOST anticipated because I haven't gone through everything, but these few seem to have a lot of potential. Some are total popcorn movies, while others have some serious Oscar likability.

BURN AFTER READING - Coen Brothers, Pitt, Clooney, Malkovich, Swinton, and Frances McDormand.....are you serious?

CHOKE - Really baity character descriptions and a character with Alzheimer's...works almost every time if done well.

CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON - David Fincher, Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, Mini-Fanning, and Tilda Swinton...are you serious part 2?

TRANSIBERIAN - Woody Harrelson bouts with Ben Kingsley (playing a Russian villian)...on a train. Need I say more?

THE CHANGELING - Clint Eastwood...nuff said.

ROCKNROLLA - If the writer and director of Snatch and Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels decides to give the world another London crime dramedy...who am I not to love it?

MAMMOTH - Michelle Williams and Gael Garcia Bernal. Hot Like Fire.

THE DARK KNIGHT - Been wanting this since Batman Begins came out.

IRON MAN - Love me some comic books, and I love me some Robert Downey Jr.

CHARLIE BARTLETT - Just looks like fun. And I loved Anton Yelchin in Alpha Dog

LEATHERHEADS - George Clooney can do anything. And he does it in such a cool way!

It's a fun crowd.

Winners

2008-01-24T17:00:00.000-06:00

I posted my predicted winners on the right in asterisks.

We have a Brokeback Mountain/Crash Remix on our hands. Except No Country For Old Men would lose to a good movie like Juno and There Will Be Blood, while Brokeback lost to a stupid one.

That's just how I feel.

Later Platers.

Diablo Cody on Letterman

2008-01-23T15:05:00.001-06:00

Got this from AwardsDaily.

I just fell in love...as much as one can with an on camera persona one has never met....ya. I love her.

She is what she is, and that says A LOT in Hollywood. Also, she is genuinely funny...not just "toil over a script to make it funny" but actually funny. You can see Juno radiating from her and that is what makes her writing natural and just plain brilliant. So many writers are afraid to put themselves in their work because if no one likes my psuedo-autobiographical then that means that they don't like me! (Insert Self Esteem issue here) As a result, most writers end up writing superficial surface level screenplays that lack heart and soul.

I think we will see amazing things from her. Can't wait!

Watch out for Juno to upset for a Best Picture win. No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood could split votes and Juno could go home with a statue...let's hope! Juno has a disturbingly impressive box office showing, with no signs of stopping, and Juno could win 3 of its 4 nods. Sorry Mr. Reitman, it's not happening.

You guys think Juno has a chance?

Later Players.

Heath Ledger Dead

2008-01-22T16:15:00.003-06:00

This is so sad.

There aren't really any words here. He was an incredibly talented actor who had just begun to show what he had to offer.

Condolences.

FROM THE AP:

NEW YORK (AP) — Heath Ledger was found dead Tuesday at a downtown Manhattan residence, and police said drugs may have been a factor. He was 28.
NYPD spokesman Paul Browne said Ledger had an appointment for a massage at the Manhattan apartment believed to be his home. The housekeeper who went to let him know the masseuse had arrived found him dead at 3:26 p.m.
The Australian-born actor was nominated for an Oscar for "Brokeback Mountain," where he met his wife, actress Michelle Williams, in 2005. Ledger and Williams had lived in Brooklyn and had a daughter, Matilda, until they split up last year.
Ledger was to appear as the Joker this year in "The Dark Night," a sequel to 2005's "Batman Begins." He's had starring roles in "A Knight's Tale" and "The Patriot," and played the suicidal son of Billy Bob Thornton in "Monster's Ball."
Ledger grew up in Perth, and began doing amateur theater at age 10. At 16, he moved to Sydney to pursue an acting career, quickly landing TV movie roles and guest spots on Australian television.
After several independent films and a starring role in the short-lived Fox TV series "Roar," Ledger moved to Los Angeles and costarred in "10 Things I Hate About You," a teen comedy reworking of "The Taming of the Shrew."
Offers for other teen flicks came his way, but Ledger turned them down, preferring to remain idle than sign on for projects he didn't like.
"It wasn't a hard decision for me," Ledger told the Associated Press in 2001. "It was hard for everyone else around me to understand. Agents were like, `You're crazy,' my parents were like, `Come on, you have to eat.'"
His latest role was in "I'm Not There," in which he played one of the many incarnations of Bob Dylan — as did Cate Blanchett, whose performance in that film earned an Oscar nomination Tuesday for best supporting actress.

Thoughts and Prayers.

How Did I Do?

2008-01-21T20:07:00.000-06:00

BIG EIGHT: 33/40 - 82.5%
TECHS AND OTHERS: 39/63 - 61%
ALL TOGETHER: 70%

Not a bad year! Got all the Best Picture, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography correct, but those sound and music nominees killed me. Who thought Enchanted would grab 3 songs. I mean really!

Apparently Into The Wild did not hold the power that many thought it would only scoring 2 nods. Not even Sean Penn could pull out a directing nod (YAY JASON REITMAN!!!).

There is quite the brawl for the most nominations though:

Atonement - 7
Michael Clayton - 7
No Country For Old Men - 8
There Will Be Blood - 8

So......exciting

Best Picture: 5/5
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
No Country For Old Men
Juno
Michael Clayton

Best Director: 4/5
Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Sean Penn - Into The Wild - Jason Reitman - Juno
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton

Best Actor: 4/5
Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Emile Hirsch - Into The Wild - Tommy Lee Jones - In The Valley Of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

Best Actress: 4/5
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page - Juno
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart - Laura Linney - The Savages

Best Supporting Actor: 4/5
Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Hal Holbrook - Into The Wild
Tommy Lee Jones - No Country For Old Men - Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War

Best Supporting Actress: 3/5
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Catherine Keener - Into The Wild - Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement - Saoirse Ronan - Atonement

Best Adapted Screenplay: 4/5
No Country For Old Men
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
There Will Be Blood
Into The Wild - Away From Her

Best Original Screenplay: 5/5
Juno
Michael Clayton
Lars And The Real Girl
The Savages
Ratatouille

Animated Feature: 2/3
Ratatouille
Persepolis
The Simpsons Movie - Surf's Up

Documentary: 3/5
Lake Of Fire - Operation Homecoming: Writing The Wartime Experience
No End In Sight
Sicko
Autism: The Musical - War/Dance
Taxi To The Dark Side

Documentary Short: 2/4
Salim Baba
Ochberg's Orphans - Sari's Mother
La Corona (The Crown)
Freeheld

Foreign Film: 3/5
12 (Russia)
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Beaufort (Israel)
The Unknown (Italy) - Katyn
The Year My Parents Went On Vacation (Brazil) - Mongol

Art Direction: 3/5
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - American Gangster
Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End - The Golden Compass

Editing: 4/5
Michael Clayton - The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
There Will Be Blood
Into The Wild
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country For Old Men

Cinematography: 5/5
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
No Country For Old Men
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Costume Design: 3/5
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Atonement
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street
3:10 to Yuma - La Vie En Rose
Hairspray - Across The Universe

Makeup: 1/3
300 - Pirates 3
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Norbit
La Vie En Rose

Original Score: 3/5
Eastern Promises - Michael Clayton
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Lust, Caution - 3:10 to Yuma
Ratatouille

Original Song: 2/5
Come So Far (Got So Far to Go), Hairspray - August Rush
Guarunteed, Into The Wild - Enchanted
Falling Slowly, Once
Do You Feel Me, American Gangster - Enchanted
That's How You Know, Enchanted

Sound Editing: 2/5
300 - The Bourne Ultimatum
Transformers
3:10 to Yuma - There Will Be Blood
Ratatouille
Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End - No Country For Old Men

Sound Mixing: 3/5
Transformers
Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End - Ratatouille
300 - 3:10 to Yuma
No Country For Old Men
The Bourne Ultimatum

Visual Effects: 3/3
Transformers
Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End
The Golden Compass

FYC Ad Of The Day

2008-01-20T12:40:00.001-06:00

Director Updates

2008-01-20T12:37:00.000-06:00

So I don't have a total breakdown for the category but the Director chart is posted on the sidebar. I still believe that Joe Wright could upset here with the "epic pic director" slot, and Tim Burton could appear for the overdue slot. Tony Gilroy feels weak right now.

What do you guys think?

Alright Kids

2008-01-15T19:56:00.001-06:00

I have a had a rough few days with school starting and stress piling up. I will most definitely be posting some reactions to the Globes soon, and will be updating the charts.

Thanks for hanging with me.

DGA Nods!

2008-01-08T20:07:00.000-06:00

Great line up here!

Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Sean Penn - Into The Wild

Huge boost for Sean Penn and Tony Gilroy and their respective films, while There Will Be Blood continues to build momentum. Julian Schnabel needed this as well.

Good job DGA.

Directors update later.

Original Screenplay

2008-01-07T12:21:00.000-06:00

Personally, I find the Original Screenplay category to be one of the most entertaining categories of any year. Here, we can find some of the most eclectic, enjoyable, thought-provoking projects of the year. It's always fun to delve in to the most original and creative projects of the year.

THE PLAYERS
1. Juno
2. Michael Clayton
3. Ratatouille
4. The Savages
5. Lars And The Real Girl

THE CHASERS
1. I'm Not There
2. Before The Devil Knows You're Dead
3. Eastern Promises

It's clear that this category loves to award the quirky comedy with an emotional foundation, and that is exactly what Juno delivers. Not only are the lines well scripted, but the characters are too. It's a vast improvement on the Little Miss Sunshine model, and it seems like the clear winner here.

Michael Clayton seemed to be building so much Best Picture steam, only to stumble into the "unlikely" slot. So, the witty and clever adult law drama is likely nominated in this category: often considered the place to say "Oh, I'm sorry you didn't get into Best Picture...but here's a screenplay nod!!!"

Ratatouille has long been praised as one of the best reviewed movies of the year, and will most likely receive a nod here like The Incredibles did a few years ago. It's near impossible for animated films to break into the top five whether or not they deserve it, so once again, this category is where this animated masterpiece will fall.

The Savages and Lars and The Real Girl seem to be building momentum with their precursor nominations. The Savages has racked up the LAFCA award along with some regional nominations, while Lars and The Real Girl picked up the NBR award, a Satellite Award nomination, and a BFCA nomination. These two seem very likely to receive the 4th and 5th slots in this category.

The Chasers represent a completely different tone of film making. I'm Not There could get the weird yet cool nomination. Before The Devil Knows Your Dead could get the thrilling and intense nomination. And Eastern Promises could get the foreign mystery thriller nomination. It's a very cool year, and the range of possibilities is as diverse as it has ever been.

Loves it.

Later Players.

FYC Ad Of The Day

2008-01-07T12:14:00.001-06:00

ASC Nominations

2008-01-07T12:10:00.000-06:00

Cinematographers are weighing in with the ASC nominations.

The Assassination of Jesse James by The Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
No Country For Old Men

No Into The Wild huh?

Intriguing. What do you guys think?

Poll!!!

2008-01-06T12:26:00.000-06:00

Surprisingly, Tilda Swinton won this weeks poll for most likely to be snubbed. I'm not sure if this is because most people don't really know her, or if they haven't seen Michael Clayton, but either way there is clearly a weakness to her performance that lead most of you to believe she could be snubbed.

The role is not as baity as others in the category and that could lead to the snub, but I don't really see the industry respect waivering that much.

My Pick: Atonement for Best Picture

It's too glossy and if the Academy decides to go gritty this year, Into The Wild, There Will Be Blood, and the many many others will overcome Joe Wright's Oscar-pleading project. It feels like Walk The Line.

BAFTA Long Lists

2008-01-05T14:00:00.000-06:00

Variety has the BAFTA long lists up. These lists show the 15 contenders that the five for the short list will be chosen from. Atonement racks up 17 long list nominations, 4 of which in the Supporting Actress race (could not be happier about the Brenda Blethyn recognition!!!).

Here they are!

The Sweeney Todd snub in director and picture can be explained because screeners were not sent out. Don't read too much into this. Especially since it still received 9 long list nods without any publicity.

FYC Ad Of The Day

2008-01-04T20:16:00.000-06:00

USC Scripter Nominations

2008-01-03T16:35:00.000-06:00

Awards Daily has the USC Scripter nominations up. And they are...

Atonement
Into The Wild
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac

The Scripter Awards recognize the year's best effort in screen writing adaptation. Last year, only two of the five Scripter nominees matched up with the Oscar top five, those being winner Children of Men, and Notes On A Scandal.

I will take this opportunity to give my breakdown of the Adapted Screenplay chart and give the break down the way I see it.

Historically, the winner of the Scripter has been Best Picture nominated 12 out of 19 times. The winners that missed were Children of Men, A Civil Action, The Hurricane, Wonder Boys, A River Runs Through It, Fried Green Tomatoes, and 84 Charing Crossing Road.

The Scripters started nominating instead of just plain awarding in '97, and since then 33 out of their 50 nominees have gone on to receive adapted screenplay nominations. Generally, they average a 3 or 4 nomination match with what AMPAS declares the best of the year. Only once have they matched up perfectly, in 2005, when they nominated Syriana as Adapted, but AMPAS nominated it in Original.

Atonement and No Country For Old Men get in without fail, and Into The Wild gets this nod as either an industry love match to a Best Picture nomination, or an apology à la Hotel Rwanda for not making the Best Pic short list. There Will be Blood is gaining serious momentum and seems very likely. The Diving Bell and The Butterfly is falling fast and could get overtaken by the likes of Charlie Wilson's War, Sweeney Todd, Zodiac, or Gone Baby Gone. In the end, Scripter matches 3 or 4 to the Oscar list.

It's nice to see recognition for the brilliantly nuanced Zodiac finally come around at least a little bit, but I think it will pretty much stop here.

It's a great race.

THE PLAYERS
1. No Country For Old Men
2. Atonement
3. Into The Wild
4. There Will Be Blood
5. The Diving Bell and The Butterfly

THE CHASERS
1. Charlie Wilson's War
2. Gone Baby Gone
3. Sweeney Todd
4. Zodiac

Diet Reviews!!!

2008-01-03T03:12:00.002-06:00

I have been needing to get caught up on a few reviews so I just decided to lump them together and do Diet Reviews: a trimmed down version of what could have been a much wordier diatribe full of descriptive but superfluous adjectives. Much like that last sentence.

ATONEMENT
Um, ya. So this film was pretty much near perfect in its technical execution, which may ultimately be its tragic flaw. The film appears so glossy-perfect in its stunning cinematography and art direction that the whole thing feels a little plastic. Classic case of style trumping substance, though James McAvoy is was just what I thought he would be ever since I saw The Last King Of Scotland: a growing leading man. Watch out for him. GRADE: A-

ALIEN VS. PREDATOR: REQUIEM
I have heard that the definition of an idiot is someone who does the same thing over and over but expects different results. I....am an idiot. I continuously see these new Alien or Predator movies because I loved the first two so much and hope that a return to brilliance will be just around the corner. This movie is horrible. Like as horrible as The Marine...horrible. Enough Said. GRADE: F

JUNO
I never bought into the cult love for Little Miss Sunshine last year, so I thought I would be particularly jaded to the apparently similar Juno this year. Remind me to never trust people because this film is anything but Little Miss Sunshine. Its gritty yet charming attitudes and truly original writing represent an enjoyable and original film, not a veneer of family awkwardness that both feigns originality and is shaped like a dancing Abigail Breslin. Ellen Page is incredible. And so is this movie. GRADE: A-

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
I need to see this again. I think it is brilliant, but I need to make sure I wasn't just vibing into a manipulative attempt to be complex for complexity's sake. But technically it was stunning. LOVE the no score choice. GRADE: A

I AM LEGEND
Just plain fun. Unfortunately the movie could have been a little less action and a little more "what should we think of this?" Often sacrifices truly thought-provoking, and inherently more interesting, questions for the cheesy jump-out-at-you moments that grew so annoying. Also, I kinda think it would have been amazing if they never really showed those baddies, and left it up to us as to whether he had gone insane. Just more interesting to me, I suppose. GRADE: B-

THE GREAT DEBATERS
Denzel Washington's second directorial effort is not as good as his first. This film is unfocused and often too wide ranging to garner any effective sentiment from an audience. In the effort to display many problems as a little wrong, the film sacrifices the importance of making one over arching issue WAY important. Very bleh to me. GRADE: C+

FYC Ad Of The Day

2008-01-03T03:12:00.001-06:00

FYC Ad Of The Day

2008-01-01T05:47:00.001-06:00

FYC Ad Of The Day

2007-12-31T18:38:00.001-06:00

A Mighty Heart

2007-12-31T18:10:00.000-06:00

Well, I just got back from a wonderful family wedding and I will not be posting again today other than what I have to say here, and an FYC ad.

I finally got around to watching A Mighty Heart and as a whole, it is seriously flawed. Fractured editing, poor camera angles, emotionless lighting, and an overall underwhelming directorial sentiment are just a few of the technical problems with the film. It has some incredible moments, and I will give it that, but it seemed to be trying so hard to become an investigative preachy morality tale of differences and misunderstanding that it ended up becoming a lesson in the art of alienating international struggles as a simple plot device.

That being said, Jolie is pretty much stellar in this film. I have not seen her dig into a character so much since Girl, Interrupted, for which she won a Supporting Actress award. She was strong yet vulnerable in the same way Julianne Moore was in Far From Heaven, while displaying complete devastation in the style of Naomi Watts in 21 Grams.

I believe she should be nominated for this performance, but it is very possible she could be snubbed. If she does not get a nod at least, it is the fault of the director for pointing the camera in the wrong direction. Too many shots were focused on the recipient of Jolie's lines instead of on her. I think a lot of desperation and drive were missed from her because of those botched moments.

One hell of an emotional breakdown at the end though.

For these reasons...I have decided to bump Amy Adams from the top five on the sidebar and give it to Jolie. I don't think AMPAS can ignore this performance. I mean, the Globes, SAG, and BFCA couldn't...

Film: C+
Jolie: A-

Later Players.

FYC Ad Of The Day

2007-12-30T14:58:00.001-06:00

There Will Be Blood

2007-12-30T14:04:00.000-06:00

Boxofficemojo is reporting an opening weekend performance of 186,000 for There Will Be Blood. Seems like it underperformed? Well considering that the movie showed in only two theaters with a per theater average of 93,000, it would seem like there is a level of anticipation that has not been seen since Brokeback Mountain averaged 109,000 in 5 theaters.

There Will Be Blood is building momentum in a big way, and feels like a darkhorse to win this year. I know that No Country For Old Men is on a war path to victory, but when one film wins that much, upsets tend to happen (Raging Bull, Brokeback Mountain, Saving Private Ryan, Goodfellas etc).

Watch out now.

P.S. I am at a family wedding right now, so I will most likely not be able to post until tomorrow, but who knows maybe I'll get around to something tonight.

Later Players.

Poll Results

2007-12-29T16:05:00.000-06:00

Alright kids, most of you thought that Atonement would get the most nominations this year, followed up with Sweeney Todd.

Interesting, considering both films received no attention at the SAGs, and Into The Wild lead the BFCAs and the SAGs. However, I agree with most of you. It might just be a hunch, but I think AMPAS will not be able to resists a beautifully shot, British, sprawling epic and the new Joe Wright project will grab a bunch of nods.

My vote: Atonement.

Check the new poll!

"YOU'VE CHANGED THINGS. FOREVER. THERE'S NO GOING BACK. SEE, TO THEM YOU'RE JUST A FREAK. LIKE ME!"

2007-12-28T09:28:00.000-06:00

::Chills::

FYC Ad Of The Day

2007-12-28T08:08:00.001-06:00

Best Actor

2007-12-27T14:06:00.000-06:00

As always, this category is full of the best performances of the year despite gender or role size. It just so happens that great dynamic leading roles tend to be written for men. Not a good thing, but a true thing.

THE PLAYERS
1. JOHNNY DEPP - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street
2. DANIEL DAY LEWIS - There Will Be Blood
3. GEORGE CLOONEY - Michael Clayton
4. EMILE HIRSCH - Into The Wild
5. RYAN GOSLING - Lars And The Real Girl

THE CHASERS
1. Viggo Mortensen - Easern Promises
2. Denzel Washington - American Gangster
3. James McAvoy - Atonement
4. Tom Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War

Though Sweeney Todd might miss out on the Best Picture nod (if SAG tells us anything), Depp is a sure thing. He has incredible industry respect and tends to be nominated if he breathes the right way. It doesn't hurt that he surprises with a strong singing voice, is paired with an overdue director, and has never won before. I don't give the SAG snub any bearing...but that's only because it's Johnny Depp.

The only actor that will give Depp any competition is the veteran tour-de-force of Daniel Day Lewis. I would place him at the top of the list, but DDL has an Oscar already, while Depp does not. Nevertheless, Lewis has rave reviews, the most precursors, and nods from BFCA, GG, and SAG. A sure thing.

I don't necessarily understand the craze that is George Clooney in Michael Clayton. He will be nominated, but I don't feel like the performance is all that impressive, and that maybe he is getting notice for being himself in a decent and smart drama. His supporting and directing nods of a few years ago were more impressive, but Clooney is the NBR winner and a shoe-in with Depp and Lewis.

This is where things get a little more confusing. Hirsch got snubbed by the Globes, but supported by the BFCA and SAG in a big way. Considering that the HFPA tends to embrace the stars (to put it nicely), it is easily understood that Denzel would beat out performances like Hirsch's indie foray. Also, go ahead and factor in the massive support that Into The Wild had at the SAGs and BFCAs and what are we left with? Hirsch, as a "breakout performance" type nominee.

A few months ago, no one would give real notice to Gosling's weird-yet-impressive turn in Lars And The Real Girl. But now, with a GG, BFCA, and SAG nomination under his belt, the youngster who broke onto the scene last year with a knockout performance in Half Nelson is looking to be nominated for the second time in two years.

This category is so incredibly competitive this year, that The Chasers would make a great list on their own. Viggo Mortensen could, and probably will, upset Gosling for the fifth spot. He has recognition from all of the majors, but given his previous snubs and the low exposure of Eastern Promises, I just don't feel like he will ever get nominated until the year he is going to have enough to actually win. Washington never fails to disappoint these days, but his fate depends on the mood of AMPAS. Is it an indie Brokeback-Capote year or a Seabiscuit-Master And Commander year? If American Gangster is in, there is no telling what might happen. McAvoy has the exact same situation: if Atonement dominates, he will get in over someone more deserving. And finally, never underestimate Tom Hanks. He can do anything. The end.

I cannot express how impressing this list is. It's a great year for film, and AMPAS can't go wrong with five of these nine...even Tom Hanks.

Later Players.

Trailer Time!

2007-12-27T05:52:00.000-06:00

Here are a couple of trailers to the mindlessly entertaining movies that I am looking forward to. Think of this as an "I am sorry I didn't post Best Actor last night, it will go up today, but enjoy these until then"...post.

Ya.

FYC Ad Of The Day

2007-12-26T08:31:00.001-06:00

So...I Didn't Post On Christmas...

2007-12-26T08:29:00.000-06:00

I'm only human people. I probably will have Best Actor up tonight, but for now enjoy the next post.

Visually Stunning. Can't wait to see it.

Later Players

FYC Ad Of The Day

2007-12-25T00:42:00.001-06:00

Best Actress

2007-12-24T17:06:00.000-06:00

This year has served as one of the strongest displays of talented women in recent memory. We have come a long way from last year when only five women were deserving of the nomination. Competition is great for the advancement of quality, so I am very happy to say that there are about nine women fighting for this year's top spots. HOORAY! TALENT!

THE PLAYERS
1. JULIE CHRISTIE - Away From Her
2. MARION COTILLARD - La Vie en Rose
3. ELLEN PAGE - Juno
4. CATE BLANCHETT - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
5. AMY ADAMS - Enchanted

THE CHASERS
1. Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
2. Keira Knightley - Atonement
3. Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street
4. Jodie Foster - The Brave One

Julie Christie is blowin' it up right now and she is paving a very dominant path to Oscar gold. She is the NBR winner and a Globe, SAG, and BFCA nominee to boot. She is a comeback actress, a previous winner, and she has a role that screams Oscar. Christie will be there come Oscar night, but she is not a shoe-in for the win.

Ellen Page and Marion Cotillard have been gaining major ground on Christie when it looked like she was going to win everything she set her eyes on. Cotillard has a huge fan/critical support base and also has the biopic thing going for her. But La Vie en Rose is a foreign film and she could get Penelope Cruz-ed: all love, but no Oscar. She looks good for a nomination though. Page, however, fills the role as "Oscar new-comer." Last year, she broke out with her graphic and startling performance in Hard Candy, and this year she follows that acclaim up with a likable and quirky performance that has the stuff to be remembered for a long time. She could upset with a win, but her youth could hurt her against the other experienced veterans in the race. Page and Cotillard are both BFCA, GG, and SAG nominees.

Blanchett is in a strange place. The Academy loves her like with the unconditional love a parent gives a child, but the movie she could be nominated for, in this category at least, was pretty much critically panned. She could lose the nomination for that reason, but I doubt it.

Amy Adams was simply a revelation in Enchanted, and without her, the film would have induced theater-wide migraines of annoyance. Instead, she made Enchanted feel like an hour and a half of smiles. She could get snubbed, since she is the only actress who got shut out at the SAGs that I have in the top five. Perhaps voters won't support two comedic performances in the same year, and Page will beat Adams out of the short list.

If this happens, Jolie or Knightley will snag the spot. Jolie has been nominated for all of the majors (BFCA, GG, and SAG) and I would put her in the top five, but her film came out too early, and I think AMPAS might want to avoid being accused of embracing stars rather than performances. Her performance is good, but others are better. Knightley will get in if AMPAS goes crazy for Atonement, but if the SAG snub shows us anything it's that Atonement is not nearly as strong as we thought.

Carter and Foster both give stunning performances but just don't have the drive or support that other women have. They both need a Globe win to survive, but that does not seem likely in any way, shape, or form.

P.S. If you didn't get that the HOORAY! TALENT! was an allusion to HOORAY! BEER! Red Stripe ads, then I don't know what to do. Your loss? I guess...

Later Players.

First A+ Of The Year

2007-12-24T06:29:00.000-06:00

You will notice in the sidebar "Review" section that I have given my first A+ of the year to Gone Baby Gone. This film is an intense morality play of a thriller that not only kept me guessing, but kept me caring enough to guess more. The brothers Affleck shine, and show that each of them will be making movies for a very long time. Ed Harris is one of the most underrated performers of the year, and Amy Ryan deserves all the attention she is getting.

I was simply blown away by this film. It's gritty, fun, and, most importantly, not easily digested. Truly haunting. Congrats Mr. Affleck on a stellar directorial debut.

FYC Ad Of The Day

2007-12-24T00:21:00.001-06:00

Supporting Actor Update

2007-12-23T14:45:00.000-06:00

Supporting Actor is a race much like the Best Actress race of last year: a race with a clear top five, a clear winner, and a very slim chance for surprise. Fortunately, out of the top five performances, there isn't a single disappointing one, which is always nice. Let's break it down.

THE PLAYERS
1. JAVIER BARDEM - No Country For Old Men
2. TOM WILKINSON - Michael Clayton
3. CASEY AFFLECK - The Assassination Of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
4. PHILLIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - Charlie Wilson's War
5. HAL HOLBROOK - Into The Wild

THE CHASERS
John Travolta - Hairspray
Tommy Lee Jones - No Country For Old Men
Max von Sydow - The Diving Bell and The Butterfly

No one can stop Javier Bardem. Plain. And. Simple. He is a respected, foreign actor playing a truly baity psychotic role. And AMPAS loves to love scary done well (See: Kathy Bates). He has been destroying the regional critic awards and has a BFCA, GG, and SAG nod. He's in. It's just the way it is.

Tom Wilkinson and Casey Affleck started the season the same way: as a possible nomination threat despite a cloud of suspicion and uncertainly looming over their heads. But fortunately for both, good precursor showings have helped to calm the concern. Affleck is one of the break-out performers of the year when you combine this performance with his work in Gone Baby Gone. On the other hand, Wilkinson doesn't need to break out. He's good, and everyone knows it. He probably should have won for his stunning work in In The Bedroom, and some might say this nod would be an apology, but "some" would only say that if his performance as the manic-depressive born again power litigator wasn't so breathtaking. Each actor has BFCA, GG, and SAG nods.

Holbrook and Hoffman will get in with the help of industry respect. Holbrook has never been recognized and reviews have secluded him as stand-out. He's the feel good "it can happen to anyone" story of the year, much like Jackie Earle Haley last year. Hoffman, however, dominates on a completely different kind of respect. He's just a phenomenal character actor in a pretty good movie. He's the Blanchett of the male categories, and like Blanchett he can do no wrong. Holbrook has a BFCA and a SAG nod, and Hoffman has a BFCA nod to go with his GG nomination.

The top five are pretty much concrete, but Travolta or von Sydow could get in as a comeback/veteran vote, and Tommy Lee Jones received incredible help from the SAG nomination, but still remains unlikely to upset any of the top five.

Alright, that's that.

Later Players.

The Dark Knight Trailer

2007-12-23T09:27:00.000-06:00

FYC Ad Of The Day

2007-12-23T02:11:00.000-06:00

Supporting Actress Updates

2007-12-22T16:34:00.001-06:00

The race for supporting actress is a crowded one filled with baity roles like a desperate mother, an under-the-surface insecure power lawyer, a bitchy little sister, and even Bob Dylan. The choices certainly are fun this year, but the race has become exceedingly boring with three of the possibilities being from the same film, and really only one or two open spots.

THE PLAYERS
1. AMY RYAN - Gone Baby Gone
2. TILDA SWINTON - Michael Clayton
3. CATE BLANCHETT - I'm Not There
4. CATHERINE KEENER - Into The Wild
5. SAOIRSE RONAN - Atonement

THE CHASERS
1. Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
2. Ruby Dee - American Gangster
3. Julia Roberts - Charlie Wilson's War

The only women who are actually "locked" into this race (as locked as anyone can be at this point) are Ryan, Swinton, and Blanchett. Ryan has taken the precursors by a storm only a little less powerful than that of the Helen Mirren hurricane of last year. She has snagged wins from Los Angeles, New York, The National Board Review, and an oodle of regional wins on top of that. Not to mention being nominated at the Globes and SAG.

Which is really all Swinton and Blanchett have going for them. Each of them have stolen a few regional critics awards from Ryan, but not enough to usurp Ryan's critical reign. Blanchett is an Oscar golden child and can do no wrong (see: her possible best actress nod despite a critically panned film), so it is very likely that she will be on the short list. Swinton is a respected actress who has never quite gotten her due, but the Academy desperately wants to give it to her. C'mon she was in the running for Narnia a few years ago! Michael Clayton gives her the perfect venue to stand out, and she does exactly that as the dynamically intriguing "Karon Crowder." Both Blanchett and Swinton received kudos from the Globes and SAG.

Ronan and Keener round out the list in the typical "who is else is getting runner up or one-time nodded?" category. Keener receives the SAG nom while Ronan didn't, and it was the other way around for the Globes, which was strange since SAG typically goes younger before any other precursor. Knowing this, I think Ronan is the most likely to get bumped from the list and replaced by either one of her film counterparts (probably Redgrave) or Julia Roberts/Ruby Dee for Charlie Wilson's War and American Gangster, respectively. Dee needs American Gangster to get a BP nod for any hope, and Roberts just needs blind luck or a Golden Globe miracle. It feels like Keener is in though. I mean, she got the nod in 2005 for a less than outstanding performance in Capote, so who is to stop her this year?

The race has definitely thinned down, and would have been more interesting if Sweeney Todd's Helena Bonham Carter would have been campaigned supporting instead of lead, but it's whatever. I've moved on.

Later Players.

New Digs and Predicts!

2007-12-22T03:41:00.000-06:00

Two Things:

1. You will notice that I have completely overhauled the blog. Now it doesn't look like a children's toy box, which really is quite wonderful. Hope you enjoy!

2. I have updated the sidebar with the Supporting Actress Nominees that I believe, as of now, will earn the coveted title "Oscar Nominee." I will be updating the sidebar as I go along and profile "The Players" of each race over the next few days. Right now I could go ahead with the write-up on these lovely supporting ladies, but it's four o'clock in the morning and I am going to pretend to sleep now. So instead, here is the early sidebar to sustain your Oscar-sized hunger.

Later Players.

Alright...Time To Do This Again

2007-12-22T02:14:00.001-06:00

Life has recently taken a liking to forcefully slapping me with as many hardships as possible, so the blog has taken a liking to being completely ignored for the upkeep of my sanity.

But now I'm back!

Coming in the next few weeks before the nominations are released will be a breakdown of the categories that is much needed. The last time I updated them was in October methinks so the sidebar needs some revamping. Some things look like they have stayed the same (No Country, Atonement, etc etc) but some of my early year picks were just horrendous (Reservation Road....nuff said...I'm sorry!) and MUST be reevaluated.

That's first on the list along with some reviews. It looks like I might be helping realbuzz.com with some reviewing duties so I will be sure to link from here.

Alright. More soon.

Later Players

Chart Updates....

2007-09-17T20:12:00.000-05:00

Full updates on the side bar. The year is looking to be extremely interesting. I will be breaking down the categories soon, when time opens up a little bit. Starting with Best Actress.

What do you guys think of the predicts?

Jon Stewart!!!!!

2007-09-12T15:35:00.000-05:00

While I loved Ellen (who couldn't) I am thrilled with Jon Stewart taking the hosting duties this year. Especially given the politically charged movies this year. Can't wait.

Updates on predicts after Toronto.

P.S. Word on the street is that Reservation Road is freaking awesome. I have been predicting this since I heard about the cast, and even the awful poster and stupid trailer couldn't turn me off. Lovin' this!

Awful poster. Check out Awardsdaily.com for a full panning of this one sheet.

Updates and Questions

2007-08-30T16:12:00.000-05:00

I will be updating the side bar and running some profiles and thoughts on the major contenders pretty soon.

Classes are starting here so things are hectic. But I promise I'll get around to it.

Thanks.

For now, what do you guys think about this season? Have any ideas about sleeper noms or clear frontrunner? Who is a shoe-in? Who needs some help?

P.S. I'm lovin' that "Atonement" got some raves from its first screening. More on that later.

Superbad

2007-08-18T21:34:00.000-05:00

Well, I have found a group of comic actors with the stick together qualities of the Vince Vaughn-Owen Wilson-Will Ferrell clique that I don't actually hate. The Judd Apatow group is the new Ferrell group, and they didn't just replace, they freakin' out performed!

Superbad, the new Seth Rogen penned comedy featuring the ever hilarious Jonah Hill (Knocked Up) and Michael Cera (Arrested Development), is the funniest movie of the summer. A throwback to the Dazed and Confused movies where high school students act like the hedonistic characters they are, Superbad is SuperAwesome! Taking place in just one day, the story focuses on Seth and Evan's quest for alcohol, popularity, and of course, vagina.

Starting right off the bat with some of the most original (and let's admit it....hilarious) shock humor to grace the silver screen, the movie quickly becomes a fascinating exploration of a truly unique relationship. While initially Seth and Evan live in a world where nothing but women matter, the truth, as it usually does, reveals itself: the only people they really care about are each other. Unfortunately the scripts only weak point is the transition into said emotional area. It was break neck! Funny one second, dramatic whiplash the next. Fortunately the tangible chemistry between the two not only saves the impractical scene, but makes us care as well.

Rogen's cop and the formidable "Fogell" add some incredibly entertaining supporting characters, but that is their only real role: blatant humor ("I have a boner!") The acting across the board achieves what it is supposed to: a believable cast of high school students who actually act their age. And the script and director fortunately do their jobs as well: avoiding self-importance, and existing as if they don't at all.

The bottom line is, Superbad is hilarious, and fun. And if you can get past the randomly indulgent spat near the beginning of the third act, then the movie is damn near perfect. See it!

RATING: B+

The Lovely Bones

2007-08-10T15:45:00.000-05:00

Alright, I know this is way premature, but I am loving the casting for the 2008 project The Lovely Bones, adapted from Alice Sebold nearly infamous book about a little girl who is raped and murdered, spending her time after death watching her family cope.

Let's run this down:

Peter Jackson is directing - Hopefully it stays under 3 hours

Rachel Weisz and Ryan Gosling are the grieving parents - LOVE both of these actors and with Half Nelson and The Constant Gardner giving them both Oscar attention in the last few years, they will be on the radar REAL fast.

Susan Sarandon as the grandmother - If she doesn't win for In The Valley Of Elah this year, then she very well might next year. This role is an amazingly baity role.

Saoirse Ronan as Susie, the victim - If the attention for Atonement isn't the perfect momentum going into this role, then I don't know what is. If her performance this year gets enough attention, little Ronan could be looking at back to back nods.

AND MY FAVORITE!!!

STANLEY TUCCI as George Harvey, the killer - SO HAPPY! After one of his best (and totally underrated) performances last year in The Devil Wears Prada, Tucci looked to breaking out of his job as the actor who's face you know but not his name. This is the best role in the movie, and he is already my front-runner for winning in 2008.

I know all of this is premature, but I'm lovin' it.

The Kite Runner

2007-08-08T13:05:00.001-05:00

The fact of the matter is, really famous books have a history of not doing so well at the Oscars (Cold Mountain, Memoirs Of A Geisha), while little known ones do better.

I'm nervous about this one, but the trailer is hot like fire, and the setting is political and very current so who knows?

Reservation Road Trailer

2007-08-08T12:55:00.001-05:00

Well apparently YouTube has taken down the trailer, so here is another link to check it out. Don't understand why Focus Features would take it down, but that's that I suppose.

Check it out here

Here We Go Again!

2007-08-05T15:24:00.000-05:00

So as some of you know, I don't really believe in making predictions for the following year right after the awards show is over, so I usually end up holding off until festival season to get my first round of predictions up.

I will be doing a profile of each major category as I get to it, but I have a my first round of predics on the sidebar.

Next post should be focusing on the supporting categories.

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Final Predictions

2007-02-25T18:34:00.000-06:00

Best Picture: The Departed

Best Director: Martin Scorsese

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker

Best Actress: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson

Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Departed

Best Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Animated Feature: Cars

Best Oringinal Score: The Queen

Best Documentary Feauture: An Inconvienant Truth

Best Foreign Film: Pan's Labyrinth

Best Editing: The Departed

Best Art Direction: Dreamgirls

Best Original Song: Listen, Dreamgirls

Best Sound Editing: POTC: Dead Man's Chest

Best Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls

Best Costume Design: Dreamgirls

Best Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth

Best Visual Effects: POTC: Dead Man's Chest

Best Cinematography: Children Of Men

Best Documentary Short: The Blood of Yingzhou District

Best Live Action Short Film: West Bank Story

Best Animated Short Film: The Little Match Girl

Time To Break The Silence...

2007-02-19T18:21:00.000-06:00

So, its pretty boring right now, the race I mean. The acting categories are pretty tied up and the only major category that is truly open is Best Picture. I change my mind depending on what day it is. I don't want to do a piece drawing out and talking about each and every nominee in the major categories because really, if you are reading this, you have read it before.

So I'll do some quick breakdowns rather than a category by category analysis that ends up the same as everything else you have read.

Best Director: It's Marty, not even Clint can upset this year.

Best Actor: Nothing has the power Forest Whitaker portrayed, but watch out for a Peter O'Toole steal for simply being overdue. Would LOVE a Ryan Gosling shock, but it's not possible.

Best Actress: You know already. Mirren trounces all.

Best Supporting Actress: J-Hud wins it despite being the fourth or fifth best performance in the category. Rinko or Cate should win, but watch for an Abigail Breslin shocker.

Best Supporting Actor: More open than people think. Eddie Murphy wins it barely. Stealing it from the hands of Jackie Earle Haley and veteran Alan Arkin. All good stories though.

Best Picture: Babel v. The Departed v. LMS v. Letters v. The Queen. Column later. Too open to quick-ify.

So there it is ladies and gents. However, I have been writing an Oscar series for The Daily Texan which I will post here as well. This series seeks to bring some awareness to the GOOD categories that are not hyped enough. Tech categories are Oscars too people.

From The Daily Texan:

Seeing that it's Oscar week, papers should be littered with articles breaking down the regular races of Best Picture, Best Director and the major acting categories. In an effort to recognize the under-appreciated, this week the Daily Texan will break down some of the best categories that no one talks about. We start with Cinematography, the process of lighting scenes and making specific camera choices to create an overall look for a motion picture, as part one in our series.

And the nominees for Best Cinematography are...

"The Black Dahlia," Vilmos Zsigmond - Three-time nominee and 1977 winner for his work on "Close Encounters Of The Third Kind," Zsigmond should be recognized; he is nominated for his work on the less-than-critically-acclaimed "The Black Dahlia." Zsigmond's work, which seemed to be the only worthwhile aspect of the film in the eyes of critics, is a standout. His expertly crafted Hollywood filmnoir throwback is gorgeous and is worthy of nomination, but the film's poor reputation will keep it at just that: a nomination.

"The Prestige," Wally Pfister - With beautiful lighting and expertly conceived angles, this year's first foray into the realm of magic is a sight to see. For his second nomination - the first for last year's "Batman Begins" -Pfister frames a field of light bulbs, reveals the dark realms of a magician's back stage and executes a steady decline of light as the film gets progressively more morose in such a precise manner that audiences can't help but be caught up in the magic.

"The Illusionist," Dick Pope - First-time nominee Dick Pope is responsible for the cinematography of the second magical film of the year, and the film certainly is majestic. Where "The Prestige" focuses on the glitz and glamour of magic, "The Illusionist" is all about the environment. Pope creates a brilliant landscape by displaying forests in lonely glum shades and casting characters in a light that reflects their hope and despair.

"Pan's Labyrinth," Guillermo Navarro - Also a first-timer at the Academy Awards, Navarro is responsible for one of the most visually stunning movies of the year. "Pan's Labyrinth" poses an interesting problem: how does a film combine the real and the imaginative without separating them to
the point at which significance is lost? Navarro provides a perfect answer, a gloomy fantasy world that differs in no way from the violence of the real world portrayed in the film. And for such a perfect answer, Navarro has been rewarded.

"Children Of Men," Emmanuel Lubezki - Garnering his fourth nomination for his astonishing work on "Children Of Men," Lubezki should expect to take home the gold for the first time. Lubeski not only matches war-torn London's tone of sadness and chaos, he embraces it. Creating a mood that is powerful, disturbing, glum and, in the end, enlightening,Lubeski exceeds expectations. It is both bleak and brilliant.

Who will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, "Children of Men."

That is all.

Let The Fun Begin

2007-02-09T14:51:00.000-06:00

The time has come for a category-by-category breakdown of how things should go come Oscar night. I will write by first one starting with the supporting categories tonight and continue to follow those up throughout the next week.

Expect a column about potential upsets in each category because, while we all like to be right in our predictions, it is more fun if we can get one of those Adrien Brody-like shocks. And this year is not nearly as locked down as people think it is. Trust Me.

Check back tonight for more.

Back To It

2007-01-29T13:08:00.000-06:00

Been a little tied up here in TX, so updating was a bit of a last concern.

The updates on the side include the asterisks by who I think the winners are as of now, but I do think that will change quite a bit.

I will predict now, that I believe Judi Dench is going to put up quite a fight for that Oscar and could win ina similar fashion to Adrien Brody beating Daniel Day Lewis a few years back. After nominations were released, she was the only one that anybody could talk about on the morning shows. Very interesting.

Best Picture is wide open, and I will say Little Miss Sunshine for now, but honestly don't believe its possible. I think its The Queen, Letters From Iwo Jima, or The Departed.

Look for a column tomorrow.

2007-01-23T08:05:00.000-06:00

Holy shit!
No Dreamgirls
No Bill Condon
No Jack Nicolson!

More later....

Holy shit.

Final Predictions

2007-01-22T12:09:00.000-06:00

Tomorrow is the day we have been waiting for. Personally, I find this day more exciting than the actual ceremony, which usually is pretty predictable by the time it rolls around.

Final Predicitions...including technical categories (ugh)

Best Picture:
- Babel
- Dreamgirls
- The Departed
- The Queen
- Little Miss Sunshine

Best Director:
- Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
- Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Babel
- Stephen Frears, The Queen
- Martin Scorsese, The Departed
- Paul Greengrass, United 93

Best Actor:
- Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
- Peter O'Toole, Venus
- Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
- Will Smith, The Pursuit Of Happyness
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed

Best Actress:
- Helen Mirren, The Queen
- Judi Dench, Notes On A Scandal
- Kate Winslet, Little Children
- Penelope Cruz, Volver
- Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Best Supporting Actor:
- Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
- Jack Nicholson, The Departed
- Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
- Djimon Housou, Blood Diamond
- Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children

Best Supporting Actress:
- Abigail Bresling, Little Miss Sunshine
- Cate Blanchett, Notes On A Scandal
- Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
- Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
- Adriana Barraza, Babel

Best Original Screenplay:
- United 93
- Little Miss Sunshine
- The Queen
- Babel
- Volver

Best Adapted Screenplay:
- The Departed
- Little Children
- Notes On A Scandal
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Thank You For Smoking

Foreign Film:
- The Lives Of Others, Germany
- Water, Canada
- Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico
- Volver, Spain
- Days Of Glory, Algeria

Documentary:
- Jesus Camp
- An Inconvienant Truth
- Deliver Us From Evil
- Iraq In Fragments
- Shut Up & Sing

Animated Feature Film:
- Happy Feet
- Cars
- Monster House

Cinematography:
- Apocalypto
- Children Of Men
- Babel
- The Good Shepherd
- Pan's Labyrinth

Editing:
- United 93
- Dreamgirls
- The Queen
- Babel
- The Departed

Art Direction:
- Marie Antoinette
- Dreamgirls
- Children Of Men
- Curse Of the Golden Flower
- Pan's Labyrinth

Costume Design:
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Dreamgirls
- Marie Antoinette
- Curse Of the Golden Flower
- The Painted Veil

Best Original Score:
- Babel
- Notes On A Scandal
- The Painted Veil
- The Fountain
- The Good German

Best Original Song:
- Never Gonna Break My Faith, Bobby
- Listen, Dreamgirls
- The Song Of The Heart, Happy Feet
- I Need To Wake Up, An Inconvenient Truth
- A Father's Way, The Pursuit Of Happyness

Sound Mixing:
- Casino Royale
- Dreamgirls
- Babel
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Flags Of Our Fathers

Sound Editing:
- Cars
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Superman Returns
- Flags Of Our Fathers
- Poseidon

Best Visual Effects:
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Superman Returns
- X-Men: The Last Stand

Best Makeup:
- Apocalypto
- Pan's Labyrinth
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

PGA Reveals Wide Open Race

2007-01-21T17:51:00.000-06:00

Sasha Stone at Oscarwatch is reporting that Little Miss Sunshine won today's PGA, beating out Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, and The Queen for the distinction. In previous year the PGA has been pretty accurate predicting the eventual winner, but the last two years it selected Brokeback Mountain and The Aviator for its top prize. And as we all know, The Aviator lost to Million Dollar Baby and Brokeback Mountain lost to Crap....cough....Crash.

The race is wide open, ladies and gentlemen. The Departed snagged Critics Choice, Babel and Dreamgirls roped in the Globes, PGA for Little Miss Sunshine, and probably the BAFTA for The Queen.

I could be bothered by the confusion of this race because I like to be right, but honestly, a little drama is desperately needed since the other categories have become increasingly predictable.

Final Predictions Tomorrow.

Top Ten Films Of 2006

2007-01-20T23:27:00.000-06:00

10. United 93

Paul Greengrass' docudrama depicting the awful events of September 11th and the powerful events on flight United 93 is one of the years most astonishing efforts. Taking an unknown cast (some of them were playing themselves), and a seemingly camera-in-hand view point, Greengrass was able to create a disturbingly real account of the flight that fought back, giving us chills at almost every scene. The precision of direction, brilliant nuance and reality of the screenplay, and the prowess of the ensemble give this film a reason to be seen, despite the fears that keep many of us from seeing it.

9. Brick

Bringing an entire genre back to life is nearly impossible, and doing it well is unheard of. Rian Johnson's feature is one of the finest indie efforts of the year, as it brings the horror of high school to a whole new level. Brick brings back film noir with scary ease: placing the story in a modern high school, but still supplying the ever needed drug scandals, gang wars, a dame who has trouble written all over her, and of course, one hell of a mystery. Joseph Gordon Levitt is powerful as hell with his disturbingly emotional, yet detached portrayal that makes us forget about that little sitcom he used to be in. After last year's Mysterious Skin, and now this, I can't wait to see what he does next

8. Dreamgirls

This year's Oscar frontrunner deserves the acclaim. Dreamgirls has the power of Chicago without the cynicism. Jennifer Hudson steals the show as Effie White and proves that you can change that ever sticking prefix of "American Idoler"...to "Oscar Winner." Beyonce holds her own, and lets the glitz and glamour of the movie take power. With one of the most entertaining films of the year, Bill Condon has crafted campy fun that gets stuck in your head and just won't leave. Which is maybe why I have been listening to the Soundtrack as much as I have. The film has it all with its bitchy humor, angry drama, and of course, Beyonce saying "fuck." The only thing I don't like about this movie is the fact that Anika Noni Rose hasn't gotten more appraisal.

7. Superman Returns

When Bryan Singer left the X-Man series, many were confused. Especially when they heard he left it for Superman. But when X-3 released and disappointed, but Superman Returns released and thrilled, no one was surprised anymore. This year's Batman Begins, Superman Returns is the best popcorn flick of the year. Adding depth and intelligence to what was thought to be a dead series is never easy, but on the shoulders of new-comer Brandon Routh, it is a task all too easy for Superman. Routh portrays the humanity of Superman, never letting the giant "S" on his chest turn him into a caricature, and ultimately proves that audiences don't love superheroes just being superheroes, but rather...superheroes being human.

6. The Queen

Helen Mirren is having quite a royal year. Winning multiple awards for her dual performances as Queen Elizabeth I in the HBO miniseries, and Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen, she has cemented her role as Oscar Frontrunner. Carrying this film like Philip Seymour Hoffman carried Capote, Helen Mirren delivers the performance of a lifetime. Showing power in restraint like we have never seen before, Mirren deserves all the accolades she receives. But Mirren doesn't carry the entire film. A flawless screenplay that integrates real life footage with possibly fictional events, The Queen paints a picture we can't help but believe, and love. Delving into the themes of hope, despair, and ultimately responsibility, the multiple layers to The Queen are phenomenal.

5. Half Nelson

At the end of Sundance last year, there was no doubt that Little Miss Sunshine and Half Nelson had major Oscar potential. Ryan Gosling delivers a haunting performance as a crack addicted teacher who has his secret addiction discovered by one his students played by Shareeka Epps. Epps delivers the best acting of year by someone under the age of 15. Yes, even better than Abigail Breslin. Epps carries a silent power and judgement that commands the screen. This teacher-student drama flips the black and white expectations of this over-used genre by switching the roles of what is expected, thus giving viewers an unexpectedly realistic version of the real drama between an afflicted teacher and his pupils. Gosling delivers the performance of the year with subtlety and regret, creating an atmosphere of despair and tangled responsibility. Half Nelson is a beautiful effort with more complexity than one would expect.

4. Shortbus

The so-called "hardcore" film of the year, Shortbus is a beautiful gem of a film exploring the interlinking lives of the sexually frustrated in New York City. Delving into personal troubles felt worldwide, Shortbus can be admired by anyone who has ever felt anything for anybody. The film has been railed for being near pornographic, but a film that has a central theme of openness and acceptance of one's body and its sexually capabilities certainly wouldn't take the hypocritical stance of being prudish with the topic of sex now would it? It is a beautiful medley of strange, wonderful, lonely, and ultimately fulfillment.

3. The Departed

Martin Scorsese is back, ladies and gentleman. For the first time since Goodfellas, I actually liked Scorsese. This high-speed, high-tension film is so intense that it's almost too much to handle sometimes. If you find a way to relax during the last thirty minutes of the movie, you are not human. But The Departed is not just a high energy joy ride, it is the stuff of real life. With surprising moments of drama, tension, and pain, The Departed transcends the realm of crime thriller and becomes something by itself all together, without a category to exist in. Vera Farmiga delivers the most under appreciated performance of the year, and acts as the sole female to bring conscience to such a violent and heavy headed film. From its unexpected hilarity to its very expected violence, The Departed has it all, and is not afraid to show it.

2. Little Children

Little Children is proof that brilliant film making will be unrecognized if the campaign isn't right. This powerhouse satirical melodrama, mostly recognized for acting and its screenplay, is one of the defining films of 2006. In a time where more and more adults are acting foolishly, and thus regretting the decisions that make up their lives, Little Children seems much more important than other films. With a bone chilling performance, Jackie Earle Haley keeps this movie from being the adultery-filled will-he-leave-her-or-wont-he movie audiences have seen for years. Little Children tosses together a medley of characters with such a degree of self-involvement , that by the end of the movie the difference between the actual children who play on the playground and the adults is entirely clear, and it does so beautifully. Teaching us, with glorified satire, that life is responsibility, not entitlement.

1. Children Of Men

2006's best film is, without question, Children Of Men. Clive Owen stars in this sci-fi thinker set in 2027, 18 years after the last child was born on Earth. The world is in shambles, but the pregnancy of one young girl brings hope and power into the hands of the protagonists. At first, Children Of Men is simply intriguing, but soon becomes so much more. With the subtle inter-play of all-too-real war zones, we are forced to visualize a future where destruction and chaos is not only prevalent, it is the norm. Children Of Men, is the powerful political force that other films like V For Vendetta tried to be. It teaches us to be human and enjoy that humanity because our actions might one day, for the first time in history, bring an era where the future is not endless. By creating a world where disarray and misconduct are caused supernaturally, Children Of Men makes the War we wage today seem not only pointless, but ridiculous simply because it is a path that was chosen and taken knowingly.With a beautiful score, haunting screenplay, an creepy art direction/cinematography, Children Of Men is an aching achievement of film that never becomes preachy, but just strives to show the importance of life inside the microcosm of sterility. Brilliant.

Update...

2007-01-19T15:41:00.000-06:00

Will have Top Ten tonight....

....finally

Sorry....

2007-01-17T17:30:00.000-06:00

I know I had a pretty tight schedule for this week, but I couldn't really update because believe it or not...Austin, TX has been under an inch of ice for about two days. I just got internet back, so I will catch up as soon as possible.

I am ditching the Worst Films piece and the Readers Choice piece as well. The others will still be completed, but I need a little time.

Sorry for the inconvenience.

Globe Predictions

2007-01-15T16:39:00.000-06:00

Keeping it short...

PICTURE DRAMA: The Departed
Alternate: Babel
PICTURE COMEDY/MUSICAL: Dreamgirls
Alternate: Borat
ACTRESS DRAMA: Helen Mirren
Alternate: Judi Dench
ACTRESS COMEDY: Meryl Streep
Alternate: Beyonce Knowles
ACTOR DRAMA: Forest Whitaker
Alternate: Peter O'Toole
ACTOR COMEDY: Sacha Baron Cohen
Alternate: Aaron Eckhart
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Hudson
Alternate: Rinko Kikuchi
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Eddie Murphy
Alternate: Brad Pitt
DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese
Alternate: Eastwood (Letters)
ANIMATED FEATURE: Happy Feet
Alternate: Cars
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Letters From Iwo Jima
Alternate: Pan's Labyrinth
SCREENPLAY: Babel
Alternate: The Queen
ORIGINAL SCORE: Babel
Alternate: The Fountain
ORIGINAL SONG: "Listen"
Alternate: "Never Gonna Break My Faith"

Top Ten Films Later Tonight...

The Guilds Have Spoken...

2007-01-12T13:20:00.000-06:00

Well, things certainly took a turn after all of the Guilds released their nominations. Who would have thought that in one week, Clint Eastwood's films...both of them...would suddenly be shut out and thus severely hurt in the Oscar race?

Also, who would have thought that Babel would suddenly become a serious contender for a win in the Best Picture category, especially if it takes home the Globe like a lot of people are saying it will. A Globe shock over The Departed will make Babel a serious contender with Scorsese's film and the ever-waning Dreamgirls.

I will be adding Screenplay categories and will do a complete prediction (including techs) before the Oscars. The WGA tossed some confusion in the mix with its nomination of Borat in the Adapted category instead of the Original category. If the AMPAS ate this film up like many think it did, then we could see Borat nominated in the Adapted category, pushing out much more deserving films like Children of Men, Little Children, or Thank You For Smoking.

Things that would be surprises that I would like to see happen:

Best Picture for Children of Men
Best Director for Del Toro
Best Actor for Clive Owen
Best Actress WIN for Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor for Ben Affleck
Best Supporting Actress for either Emily Blunt or Toni Collette

With the nods in the Guild world being finished, it appears like these things won't happen, which is why they would be surprises.

Here is the schedule for the next week:

Monday: Top Ten Films of 2006
Tuesday: Worst Films of 2006
Wednesday: 1st Annual Opened Envelope Awards
Thursday: Reader's Choice Awards
Friday: Final Breakdown of Predictions

You might have realized that Thursday is the announcement for Reader's Choice. This means that you, as readers...need to choose. Please give a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for each of the major six categories...I would love if you guys included screenplay, but if it is too much then don't worry about it.

ROCK IT!

Complete Acting Updates!

2007-01-06T21:14:00.000-06:00

Bout time I overhauled these categories. With the SAGs, Globes, and BFCAs releasing their nominations, we have just about all the information we can get on the acting categories. The ballots for Oscar nominees will already be in when any of these awards are given out, so their is no real point in waiting.

Best Actor

Forest Whitaker The Last King Of Scotland
Will Smith The Pursuit of Happyness
Peter O'Toole Venus
Ryan Gosling Half Nelson
Leonardo Dicaprio The Departed

The Breakdown...

Whitaker is the obvious front runner with almost everyone critical precursor and the nods at the majors backing his performance as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Many are saying that this feels a lot like the runaway victory the Hoffman had last year, but don't underestimate the power of the older AMPAS voter. Will Smith could upset this race with a touchy-feely performance in The Pursuit of Happyness that Oscar voters just tend to melt over. Peter O'Toole is locked in for a nod here and could upset as well under the pretense of being overdue. He's been nominated 7 times and never won. Gosling got the SAG and BFCA nod he needed to stay in the race and his likelihood for a nomination can be described as being the weakest lock a lock can be. The only reason the Dicaprio is so low on this list is because of the deadly beasts of category confusion and split voting. SAG honored his lead performance in Blood Diamond and his performance The Departed...but in the supporting category. Many say his role in the much more popular The Departed will get the nod over his silly accented performance in Blood Diamond, but if voters split their decision over which film he should be nominated for then Leo could be shut out of the category completely.

Important: If Dicaprio gets shut out then look for a surprise nod to either Ken Watanabe, Aaron Eckhart, or Sacha Baron Cohen.

Best Actress

Helen Mirren The Queen
Judi Dench Notes On A Scandal
Meryl Streep The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet Little Children
Penelope Cruz Volver

The Breakdown...

Really nothing to talk about here in terms of nominations. The category is boring with little room for surprise. One can only hope that Toni Collete could get a nod here, but that is VERY VERY unlikely. These ladies are locked, but the win is not nearly as obvious as people think. Consider the case of Daniel Day Lewis and Adrien Brody a few years ago. People get tired of the same person winning over and over. I'm just saying.

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson Dreamgirls
Cate Blanchett Notes On A Scandal
Rinko Kikuchi Babel
Adriana Barraza Babel
Abigail Breslin Little Miss Sunshine

The Breakdown...

Well the top three of this category are locked for nods. Hudson, Blanchett, and Kikuchi have shared the precursor love, but Hudson still looks to be the frontrunner for her show-stealing performance as Effie White in Dreamgirls. Blanchett is looking for her second Oscar in three years, but Kikuchi is breaking into the scene for a powerhouse performance as a deaf-mute in Babel. The complexity of her character is jarring and how an actress can steal focus away from Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett without saying a word is beyond me. Barraza has the heart of the movie though, and the Babel girls are looking to nominated as a pair like they have been for the BFCA, SAG, and Globe. Breslin really is an iffy prediction right now seeing as the consensus is that Catherine O'Hara will get the fifth spot. But I think Bresling benefits not only from her SAG nod, but also O'Hara's snub at both the Globes and SAGs. Breslin gets stronger with her SAG nod, but more importantly with the weakening of her competition.

Supporting Actor

Eddie Murphy Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley Little Children
Alan Arkin Little Miss Sunshine
Djimon Hounsou Blood Diamond

The Breakdown...

This is easily the hardest category to predict. Murphy is the only real lock here since he is the only one nominated at all three of the majors. Nicholson missed out on the SAG but some can argue that happened because Dicaprio pushed him out. Nicholson will get the nomination because AMPAS loves him more than the HFPA love Renee Zelwegger or Scarlett Johansson. They had him announce Best Picture last year for no reason other than they thought he would look cool...he's a lock too. After this...it gets pretty confusing. Jackie Earle Haley is the critical darling of the year and has six awards to back that up. The role is baity as hell, he has the SAG nod, and he is a great comeback story too. I think he's in. Alan Arkin fits the mold of this category exceedingly well. This is the category where voters feel alright giving the award away to someone who is "overdue." They awarded George Clooney when he didn't deserve to win, and the same goes for Morgan Freeman, and Tim Robbins of the previous years. His performance is not one of the best supporting performance of the year, or even that movie, but he will get the nomination. Finally, Djimon Hounsou will shock a lot of people come announcement time by grabbing the fifth spot away from Pitt, Affleck, Sheen, Beach, and Wahlberg. He won the NBR, got a BFCA nod, and a SAG as well. His performance is one of the only good things about that film, but it is great. He should be honored here like he was for In America a few years ago.

This is so freakin exciting, and barring any major shifts in buzz or category shifting, these should be near my final predictions for nominations. I might get nervous about Supporting Actor and change it up, but who knows?

Comments? Questions? Feel Free...

Best Picture Gets A Shuffle...

2007-01-06T20:45:00.000-06:00

With the announcements of the SAG and PGA nominations, Letters From Iwo Jima is not nearly as locked as people think it is. Having a lower profile Foreign Film Globe nod, no notice at the Producer's guild, and the complete shutout at the SAGs is not a very good sign for it's chances at the Kodak. Many pegged it as a front runner after its NBR win earlier this season, but the focus has shifted to Dreamgirls and The Departed instead. Babel gets a HUGE boost to with the leading number of Globe nominations, a SAG ensemble nod, and the PGA. Same goes for Little Miss Sunshine as well. Suddenly it appears like the lineup for Best Picture might exclude Clint Eastwood's counterpart to the mediocre Flags Of Our Fathers, but is Letters another Munich? Munich failed to reach a PGA or a Globe nod and appeared dead in the water, but still got the nod come Oscar time.

DGA and WGA announcements should give us some more perspective.

Predictions Update: Best Picture

2007-01-01T14:41:00.000-06:00

This race is started to become exceedingly predictable, as are most categories around this time of year. Most pundits can accurately guess four nominees that are considered locked, and then comes the question of the coveted fifth spot. Since discussing the locked nature of The Departed, The Queen, Dreamgirls, and Letters From Iwo Jima is pretty much a boring affair, and would not make for an interesting entry, I thought a profile of the few films grasping for that fifth slot would be a little more interesting.

Babel

The HFPA certainly gave this film a huge boost when they released their Golden Globe nominations and Babel is trying to ride that wave all the way to the nomination ceremony. However, I don't think Oscar voters are stupid enough not to realize that the Hollywood Foreign Press is obviously going to love a Hollywood made movie that happens to be set in four different foreign countries. The film screams Golden Globe, but its divisive "love it hate it" nature will keep it from taking a slot in the top five. Ultimately the film will have the same kind of support that 21 Grams did: huge kudos for the acting, a definite screenplay nomination, along with a possible win with score.

Flags Of Our Fathers

Really even mentioning this film in the top five has become a laughable affair. At one time, Flags was the film that fight Dreamgirls for the top spot...and then it released. Mediocre critical response, awful box office generation, and no mention outside the Satellite nominations in precursors keep this film from entering the top five. I even pondered whether or not I should even mention this film in this entry because a nomination for Flags would signal the end in my Oscar predicting career in the form of a boycott.

Little Miss Sunshine

Now it comes to the serious contenders. Little Miss Sunshine feels like a mix of Munich and Capote of last year: a smaller film that looked stronger as the awards season continued yet is still in question because of a few fatal flaws in the film. While it is charming as all hell, the fact of the matter is that it is not the "comedy" that people think it is. It feels like The Royal Tenenbaums redux: a well-done, underachieving, dark, slightly comedic look into a family and their journey for fulfillment. However, Little Miss Sunshine has been running the most creative campaign the Oscar race has seen in years: a yellow VW has been driving around Santa Monica with "Little Best Picture" plastered on the side. As we saw with Terrence Howard last year, the best campaign wins when it comes to nominations.

United 93

But what about Paul Greengrass's extraordinary docu-depiction of the flight that fought back? United 93 would be considered the critical darling of the year if The Departed didn't exist. It has certainly put its footprint in the critics awards with winning New York, Utah, Dallas, etc, but the fact of the matter is that not many people saw the movie outside of those critics. It is the opinion of this writer that United 93 should be considered a contender for winning best picture, but unfortunately most of the consensus is that the movie is a better directed film than a film all together. I would not be surprised if Greengrass scored a nomination for Director, but the film missed as a whole.

Ultimately the question is: what is more important to Oscar voters, a well established campaign for a movie with a very strong fanbase, or better executed film that concentrates on a sensitive subject that has little following but stronger critical support?

In the end the best campaign wins, and Little Miss Sunshine will grab the nod.

Breakdown:

The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

I'm Back...

2006-12-29T15:42:00.000-06:00

Sorry for the lack of posts recently but you know how the holidays get. Oscar world is getting very exciting with numerous critics awards being dolled out (which I will have a breakdown for you in no time at all), and buzz shifting dramatically away from Dreamgirls. I have reviews of Dreamgirls, Pursuit of Happyness, and Apacolypto on the way along with complete prediction changes.

Things are heating up dramatically.

If you would like me to research the history of any given critics group for their past accuract let me know which one and I will include it on the breakdown later this week. Let me know...

The Globes Are...Interesting...

2006-12-14T10:18:00.000-06:00

'Bobby" gets a Best Drama nod, Ryan Gosling gets snubbed, Leonardo gets two lead nominations, Chiwetel Ejiofor for "Kinky Boots", "Babel" leads the race with nods, Toni Collette for lead actress, two Clint Eastwood director nominations missing, Foreign Film being the most exciting race, and the wide open nature of supporting actor are just a few of the strange developments that the Globe revealed.

Who gets help?

Babel gets a huge boost here and could likely defeat The Departed in Drama race. HFPA loves the type of movie Babel is (set internationaly with four languages).

Dicaprio and Eastwood get double nominations each which mean nothing other than they could split their own vote come voting time.

Dreamgirls could lose to Borat, which would be ridiculous and further proof that HFPA is a sucker for political commentary despite its cinematic merit.

Emily Blunt for Supporting Actress!!! I loved her performance in The Devil Wears Prada and was hoping it would get the type of recognition Will Ferrell got last year. Who knows, maybe it could be more for her?

United 93 gets completely shut out, but then again so did Munich, Capote, and Crash last year.

Big help for Peter O'Toole is was starting to fade from memory in the shadow of Forest Whitaker, same thing for Will Smith.

HUGE boost for Mark Wahlberg and Ben Affleck here, could Affleck walk away with a win? Eddie vs. Jack vs. Ben vs. Brad. WIDE OPEN here.

Big help for Adriana Barraza and Maggie Gyllenhaal who seemed to be all but forgotten in the major critic groups.

Dreamgirls and Little Miss Sunshine get snubbed from the Screenplay categories and Half Nelson gets shut out completely. Not a huge surprise there.

Flags of Our Fathers gets the snub that everyone was expecting and Little Children takes its place.

It is important to understand that the Globes are not exactly a precursor. The voting ballots for the Oscars will be turned in by the time the show airs, but the nominations have some effect, but a minimal one at best. The Globes are an awards show by themselves and the HFPA do not act to influence anything other than themselves. This is why so many view the Globe nominations as crazy, but they are only mixed up when viewed under the scope of the Oscars. So relax, and enjoy the circus

Updates coming soon with predictions. A LOT to think about.

Globe Nominations

2006-12-14T10:16:00.000-06:00

Picture, Drama:
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Little Children"
"The Queen"

Actress, Drama:
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"

Actor, Drama: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Picture, Musical or Comedy:
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Thank You for Smoking"

Actress, Musical or Comedy:
Annette Bening, "Running With Scissors"
Toni Collette, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Beyonce Knowles, "Dreamgirls"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Renee Zellweger, "Miss Potter"

Actor, Musical or Comedy:
Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"
Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Aaron Eckhart, "Thank You for Smoking"
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "Kinky Boots"
Will Ferrell, "Stranger than Fiction"

Supporting Actress:
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Emily Blunt, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Supporting Actor:
Ben Affleck, "Hollywoodland"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"
Brad Pitt, "Babel"
Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed"

Director:
Clint Eastwood, "Flags of Our Fathers"
Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima"
Steven Frears, "The Queen"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

Screenplay:
Guillermo Arriaga, "Babel"
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, "Little Children"
Patrick Marber, "Notes on a Scandal"
William Monahan, "The Departed"
Peter Morgan, "The Queen"

Foreign Language:
"Apocalypto," USA
"Letters from Iwo Jima," USA/Japan
"The Lives of Others," Germany
"Pan's Labyrinth," Mexico
"Volver" Spain

Animated Film:
"Cars"
"Happy Feet"
"Monster House"

Original Score:
Alexandre Desplat, "The Painted Veil"
Clint Mansell, "The Fountain"
Gustavo Santaolalla, "Babel"
Carlo Siliotto, "Nomad"
Hans Zimmer, "The Da Vinci Code"

Original Song:
"A Father's Way" from "The Pursuit of Happyness"
"Listen" from "Dreamgirls"
"Never Gonna Break My Faith" from "Bobby"
"The Song of the Heart" from "Happy Feet"
"Try Not to Remember" from "Home of the Brave"

San Francisco Critics Love 'Little Children'

2006-12-12T17:45:00.000-06:00

Best Picture – Little Children
Best Director – Paul Greengrass, United 93
Best Actor – Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
Best Actress – Helen Mirren, The Queen
Best Supporting Actor – Jackie Earle Haley, Little Childen
Best Supporting Actress – Adriana Barraza, Babel
Best Screenplay – Little Children
Best Foreign Film – Pan’s Labyrinth

BFCA Noms

2006-12-12T17:28:00.000-06:00

Almost everything nominated is in my top five or the FYC sections...I think I am on the right track here. Look for some prediction updates after the Globes announce their nominations.

BEST PICTURE:
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Queen
United 93

BEST ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Blood Diamond”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Departed”
Ryan Gosling – “Half Nelson”
Peter O’Toole – “Venus”
Will Smith – “The Pursuit of Happyness”
Forest Whitaker – “The Last King of Scotland”

BEST ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz – “Volver”
Judi Dench – “Notes on a Scandal”
Helen Mirren – “The Queen”
Meryl Streep – “The Devil Wears Prada”
Kate Winslet – “Little Children”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Ben Affleck – “Hollywoodland”
Alan Arkin – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Adam Beach – “Flags of Our Fathers”
Djimon Hounsou – “Blood Diamond”
Eddie Murphy – “Dreamgirls”
Jack Nicholson – “The Departed”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Adriana Barraza – “Babel”
Cate Blanchett – “Notes on a Scandal”
Jennifer Hudson – “Dreamgirls”
Rinko Kikuchi – “Babel”
Catherine O’Hara – “For Your Consideration”
Emma Thompson – “Stranger Than Fiction”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE:
Babel
Bobby
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
A Prairie Home Companion

BEST DIRECTOR:
Bill Condon – “Dreamgirls”
Clint Eastwood – “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Stephen Frears – “The Queen”
Paul Greengrass – “United 93”
Martin Scorsese – “The Departed”

BEST WRITER:
Michael Arndt – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Guillermo Arriaga – “Babel”
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta – “Little Children”
Zach Helm – “Stranger Than Fiction”
William Monahan – “The Departed”
Peter Morgan – “The Queen”

NYFCC Winners

2006-12-12T17:16:00.000-06:00

New York Film Critics Circle Awards...

PICTURE: United 93
Runners Up: The Queen and The Departed

DIRECTOR: Scorsese, The Departed
Runners Up: Stephen Frears, The Queen and Clint Eastwood, Letters...

ACTOR: Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
Runners Up: Ryan Gosling and Sacha Baron Cohen

ACTRESS: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Runners Up: Judi Dench and Meryl Streep

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Runners Up: Eddie Murphy and Steve Carell

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Runners Up: Shareeka Epps and Catherine O'Hara

SCREENPLAY: The Queen
Runners Up: The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine

Washington DC Film Critics Weigh In...

2006-12-10T21:17:00.000-06:00

PICTURE: United 93
DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
ACTOR: Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
ACTRESS: Helen Mirren, The Queen
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Little Miss Sunshine
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Thank You For Smoking
BREAKTHROUGH: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
ENSEMBLE: Little Miss Sunshine
FOREIGN FILM: Pan's Labyrinth
DOCUMENTARY: An Inconvenient Truth
ANIMATED: Happy Feet

LAFCA Awards 'Letters' and 'The Queen'

2006-12-10T21:02:00.000-06:00

Picture:
Letters From Iwo Jima
Runner Up: The Queen

Director:
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Runner Up: Clint Eastwood, Flags of our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima

Actor:
TIE Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat AND Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland

Actress:
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Runner Up: Penelope Cruz, Volver

Supporting Actor:
Michael Sheen, The Queen
Runner Up: Sergi Lopez, Pan's Labyrinth

Supporting Actress:
Luminata Gheorghiu, The Death of Mr. Lazarescu
Runner Up: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Screenplay:
The Queen
Runner Up: Little Miss Sunshine

New York FIlm Critics Online Awards...

2006-12-10T20:46:00.000-06:00

Picture: The Queen
Director: Stephen Frears, The Queen
Screenplay: The Queen
Actor: Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Supporting Actor: Michael Sheen, The Queen
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls TIE Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration
Ensemble: Little Miss Sunshine
Breakthrough: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Documentary: An Inconcenvient Truth
Foreign Language: Pan's Labyrinth
Animated: Happy Feet
Score: The Illusionist

Top Ten:
Babel
The Fountain
Inland Empire
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Thank You For Smoking
Volver
Water

Boston Film Critics Speak Out

2006-12-10T20:27:00.000-06:00

Best Picture:
The Departed
Runner Up: United 93

Best Director:
Martin Scorcese, The Departed
Runner Up: Paul Greengrass, United 93

Best Actor:
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Runner Up: Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

Best Actress:
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Runner Up: Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal

Best Supporting Actor:
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
Runner Up: TIE: Michael Sheen, The Queen and Alec Baldwin, The Departed/Running With Scissors/The Good Shephard

Best Supporting Actress:
Shareeka Epps, Half Nelson
Runner Up: Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Ensemble:
United 93
Runner Up: The Departed

Screenplay:
The Departed
Runner Up: The Queen

Forgein Language:
Pan's Labyrinth
Runner Up: Volver

Documentary:
TIE: Deliver Us From Evil/Shut Up and Sing

New Filmmaker:
Ryan Fleck, Half Nelson

AFI Announces Top Ten

2006-12-10T20:21:00.000-06:00

Babel
Borat: Cultural Learnings Of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Half Nelson
Happy Feet
Inside Man
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
United 93

Anyone notice an absense? AFI left out The Departed for The Devil Wears Prada and Inside Man

HUGE shocker!

Prediction Updates

2006-12-07T16:07:00.000-06:00

Post NBR predictions are up and running without any huge changes. Actually, most of the more significant shifts are in the "For Your Consideration" sections. I am also ordering the predictions according to most likely to receive a nomination, instead of the my old way of alphabetizing it. Check it out.

More predictions after Globes and LA Critics announce

P.S. I LOVE how open the supporting Actress race is. Brittany Murphy????

NBR: Naturally Bizarre Recognition

2006-12-06T14:23:00.000-06:00

Commentary Below

Variety Reports - LETTERS OF IWO JIMA BEST FILM!

Best Film: LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
Best Director: MARTIN SCORSESE, The Departed
Best Actor: FOREST WHITAKER, The Last King of Scotland
Best Actress: HELEN MIRREN, The Queen
Best Supporting Actor: DJIMON HOUNSOU, Blood Diamond
Best Supporting Actress: CATHERINE O'HARA, For Your Consideration
Best Foreign Film: VOLVER
Best Documentary: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
Best Animated Feature: CARS
Best Ensemble Cast: THE DEPARTED
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: RYAN GOSLING, Half Nelson
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: (2)
JENNIFER HUDSON, Dreamgirls and RINKO KIKUCHI, Babel

Best Directorial Debut: JASON REITMAN, Thank You for Smoking
Best Original Screenplay: ZACH HELM, Stranger Than Fiction
Best Adapted Screenplay: RON NYSWANER, The Painted Veil

The top 10 from the National Board of Review:

"Letters From Iwo Jima"
"Babel"
"Blood Diamond"
"The Departed"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"Flags Of Our Fathers"
"The History Boys"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Notes on a Scandal"
"The Painted Veil"

Um....wow. No Dreamgirls, no 9/11 films, no Little Children, no The Queen. I was on the edge of including Letters from Iwo Jima for the win, but I wasn't sure if the film was seen enough. The Devil Wears Prada and Blood Diamond get some pretty big boosts here, but I can't imagine that they would be put into the final five.

Djimon Hounsou and Catherine O'Hara get HUGE kudos here and their performances are now back on the market. The Painted Veil and Stranger Than Fiction grab some screenplay noms that are somewhat expected, but still surprising.

Forest Whitaker gets a renewal of the buzz that had long since faded, and is now reentering the frontrunner battle with Peter O'Toole.

This is very very interesting now.

Quick Thank You

2006-12-05T18:13:00.000-06:00

Last Tuesday, I put up a counter at the bottom of the blog to see how much the page is being viewed, and I am proud to say that after one week, I have 424 hits. That is probably small pickens to the larger bloggers out there, but I just started. Thanks to those who read. Thanks so much.

It's Question Time

2006-12-05T17:55:00.000-06:00

You will have to answer this one a little later than tonight since it lines up with the NBR announcements.

Given that the NBR's top ten had all five Best Picture nominees last year, which five of the top ten do you think will get the nominations? And if NBR missed one movie that will get the nod, what is it?

Go to town! Be realistic.

Updates on Predictions...

2006-12-05T17:20:00.000-06:00

I will have a full update on predictions tomorrow night barring the release of the NBR announcements. But for fun, here are the NBR predictions from moi.

Best Picture: The Queen vs. The Departed vs. Little Miss Sunshine
Advantage: The Departed

Top Ten:
The Queen
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Babel
United 93
Little Miss Sunshine
Flags Of Our Fathers
Little Children
Half Nelson
Children Of Men

Best Actor: Ryan Gosling vs. Peter O'Toole
Advantage: Gosling

Best Actress: Helen Mirren vs. Kate Winslet vs. Maggie Gyllenhaal
Advantage: Mirren

Best Supporting Actress: Rinku Kikuchi vs. Jennifer Hudson
Advantage: Hudson

Best Supporting Actor: Jack Nicholson vs. Alan Arkin vs. Brad Pitt
Advantage: Nicholson

Best Director: Martin Scorsese vs. Stephen Frears
Advantage: Scorsese

Breakthrough Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen vs. Adam Beach
Advantage: Adam Beach

Breakthrough Actress: The loser of supporting actress vs. Shareeka Epps
Advantage: Epps

Best Adapted Screenplay: Little Children vs. Thank You For Smoking
Advantage: Little Children

Best Original Screenplay: Babel vs. The Queen
Advantage: Babel

Best Debut Director: Ryan Fleck

Best Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth

Best Foreign Language Film: Volver vs. Pan's Labyrinth
Advantage: Volver

Best Ensemble: Little Miss Sunshine vs. United 93
Advantage: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Animated Feature: Happy Feet vs. A Scanner Darkly
Advantage: Happy Feet

Quickies

2006-12-02T17:26:00.000-06:00

Babel

Alejandro González Iñárritu's recent depiction into the morose connectivity of us all brings up a lot of seemingly important and timely questions without ever truly answering any of them. Though technically beautifully crafted, Iñárritu's story of the intertwining lives surounding the attack of an American tourist (Blanchett) in Morocco and the subsequent search for understading loses its impact simply because it tries too hard. Instead of being a subtle foray into the paradox of lost communication in a time of universal similarity, Babel gets bogged down by a hit-you-over-the-head simplicity that has doomed other films such as The Woodsman to mediocrity.

The acting is superb and the diretion to match, but nothing can make up for the script that tries too hard. Yes, we get that we don't understand each other any more, but what more can the film offer other than that all too obvious assertion? Ultimately, the most interesting storyline, Rinku Kikuchi's brilliantly crafted deaf-mute character, seems to be the least involved with any of the film's other major players. Sure, she acts as the only representation of someone who literally cannot communicate her words or emotions, but it remains unclear if Babel is a story that uses one event as a microcosm for a larger issue, or one event plus a random person.

It could not have been crafted more beautifully with its precise direction, emotionally draining acting, and haunting score, but Babel falls apart, ironically, in it's overcommunication.

Grade: C+

Satellite Noms Announced

2006-12-02T13:58:00.000-06:00

The Satellite Awards tend to nominate a larger group of people, and because they separate their nominations into comedy and drama like the Globes do, they tend to make things pretty exciting. The Satallite Awards narrow the field, but by nominating almost 7 films/performances per category, they introduce some new names too. Which is just fun. Here's the breakdown...

Dreamgirls - 11
Flags Of Our Father - 10
Babel - 8
The Departed - 6
Little Miss Sunshine - 5
The Queen - 4
Litte Children - 4
Notes On A Scandal - 3

Duh! - The Ones We Expect

Helen Mirren - Nominated for lead actress. Helps her buzz which many feared would fade. A win would be nice though.

Dreamgirls - Knocking out 11 nominations, it leads the pack for the first time, which is not the last time the film will have that distinction.

Judi Dench - Will she ever not be nominated?

Jack Nicholson - Heeeeeeeere's Jack!

Nice! - The Ones That Needed It

Ryan Gosling and Half Nelson - Gosling is starting to become an automatic mention with his ISA nomination and Half Nelson sweeping the Gothams. A snub here would have hurt though. It helps that the film picked up the best pic nod as well.

Kate Winslet - Buzz has practically dissappeared. This puts her back on the map.

Forest Whitaker - Same situation as Winslet. Snub was possible here...good that it didn't happen.

Adam Beach and Flags - Not on anyone's top five anymore. This nod helps bring him back into discussion, along with a film many are dropping from their predictions.

Abigail Breslin - If she had been dropped here, a lot of doubt would have surrounded her buzz.

Aaron Eckhardt, Gretchen Mol, and Annette Bening - For similar reasons. They NEED buzz.

What!? - The Ones That Are Confusing

Leonardo Dicarpio - Lead for Blood Diamond and supporting for The Departed!? Category Confusion strikes again!

Aurora Borealis - Joshua Jackson and Donald Sutherland get nods for lead and supporting respectively. Is there anything here? The movie was well received by the critics, so I guess you never know.

Will Ferrell and Joseph Cross - Nice to get the critical praise, but it probably stops here for them, lest the globes shake things up.

Toni Collette - With all the hooplah about Breslin and Arkin, no one has been even close to predicting her in most top ten lists, let alone top five. Cool, but out of nowhere.

Where!? - The Ones That Are Missing

Will Smith - Huge buzz usually translates to letdowns a la Memoirs and it appears like Smith might be another one. Perhaps the performance is good enough to make an incredible trailer, but not a movie. But he will probably bounce back. We need more info!

Michael Sheen - Wow, this could hurt him. The movie belongs to Mirren as it is, and if he can't separate himself a little bit, then he could be forgotten.

Eddie Murphy - Surprising! Some prognosticators have Murphy taking home gold come Kodak Theater time, but he fails to deliver here. Could just be a blip in the radar, but I think supporting actor is WIDE open.

United 93 or WTC - They were not having the 9/11 films. Not even a little bit. This could be indicative of the future, but hopefully only for WTC, since United 93 is a vastly superior film than most in the running for the short list. cough Babel cough.

Shareeka Epps - This could have sent her buzz out of the house, but she fails to garner a nod here. Perhaps she's being Gyllanhaal'ed.

Adriana Barraza - Eeek! Many thought she was on the upswing for her powerhouse of a performance in Inarittu's ensemble, but the lack of a nomination here says otherwise.

Things are just getting interesting and I can't wait to see how this pans out.

Question To The Readers

2006-11-28T17:30:00.000-06:00

I am getting kind of tired of the Oscar pundits of the web telling me what public opinion is, so I thought I would ask you guys a question directly. It seems like a more direct way to gauge what is and isn't popular or what does or does not have public backing. If this is successful, I will probably keep this up every Tuesday, and as the race continues the questions will get more and more specific. Let me know.

Question:

What is the one film or performance that is truly underrated?

ISA Nods.

2006-11-28T17:10:00.000-06:00

Could be one of many "In honor of..." nods Robert Altman could receive. Happy to see recognition for The Painted Veil and A Guide To Recognizing.... Helps Little Miss Sunshine and Half Nelson the most though. Go Shareeka!

SPECIAL DISTINCTION AWARD
David Lynch and Laura Dern

BEST FEATURE
American Gun
The Dead Girl
Half Nelson
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan’s Labyrinth

BEST DIRECTOR
Robert Altman - A Prairie Home Companion
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine
Ryan Fleck - Half Nelson
Karen Moncrieff - The Dead Girl
Steven Soderbergh - Bubble

BEST FIRST FEATURE

Day Night Day Night
Man Push Cart
The Motel
Sweet Land
Wristcutters: A Love Story

BEST SCREENPLAY

Neil Burger - The Illusionist
Nicole Holofcener - Friends with Money
Ron Nyswaner - The Painted Veil
Jason Reitman - Thank You For Smoking
Jeff Stanzler - Sorry, Haters

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

Michael Arndt - Little Miss Sunshine
Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck - Half Nelson
Goran Dukic - Wristcutters: A Love Story
Dito Montiel - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints
Gabrielle Zevin - Conversations with Other Women

BEST FEMALE LEAD

Shareeka Epps - Half Nelson
Catherine O’Hara - For Your Consideration
Elizabeth Reaser - Sweet Land
Michelle Williams - Land of Plenty
Robin Wright Penn - Sorry, Haters

BEST MALE LEAD

Aaron Eckhart - Thank You For Smoking
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Edward Norton - The Painted Veil
Ahmad Razvi - Man Push Cart
Forest Whitaker - American Gun

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Melonie Diaz - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints
Marcia Gay Harden - American Gun
Mary Beth Hurt - The Dead Girl
Frances McDormand - Friends with Money
Amber Tamblyn - Stephanie Daley

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Raymond J. Barry - Steel City
Daniel Craig - Infamous
Paul Dano - Little Miss Sunshine
Channing Tatum - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arin Crumley - Four Eyed Monsters
Anthony Dod Mantle - Brothers of the Head
Guillermo Navarro - Pan’s Labyrinth
Aaron Platt - Wild Tigers I Have Known
Michael Simmonds - Man Push Cart

BEST DOCUMENTARY

A Lion in the House
My Country, My Country
The Road to Guantanamo
The Trials of Darryl Hunt
You’re Gonna Miss Me

BEST FOREIGN FILM

12:08 East of Bucharest (Romania)
The Blossoming of Maximo Oliveros (Philippines)
Chronicle of an Escape (Argentina)
Days of Glory (France/Morocco/Algeria/Belgium)
The Lives of Others (Germany)

Check out the full list here

Forgot To Mention...

2006-11-27T17:36:00.000-06:00

Maggie Gyllenhaal as lead actress in Sherrybaby

and...

Ken Watanabe as lead actor in Letters From Iwo Jima

With Gyllenhaal's recent Stockholm win and the crazy buzz about Letters, consider these two very strong darkhorses for nominations and maybe more. But for now they remain in the FYC category.

Final Major Category Predicts

2006-11-23T20:45:00.000-06:00

...At least until the precursors weigh in.

We have a little less than a month before the Globes announce their noms and I thought it would be nice to finish out the predicts of the top six categories (acting, director, picture) before the rush of awards come out. There will be people we don't expect, and people we do, but it should be interesting.

Picture

Dreamgirls - It's first official rave review came out. Hundreds to follow.
The Departed - Box office + Scorsese + Reviews = locked nom.
The Queen - It's this year's Capote but better. Nominate it.
Babel - I'm concerned about this one. Might be too "loved-it-or-hated-it" for a nom, but has strong buzz right now.
Little Miss Sunshine - The category is too depressing, we NEED this.

Director

Martin Scorsese - The Departed - See above + overdue = Winner.
Bill Condon - Dreamgirls - Film is too big not to give Condon the nod, but the win is another issue.
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Babel - Film may be divisive, but the directing is solid.
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima - NO for Flags, YES for Letters. Academy loves him.
Paul Greengrass - United 93 - Feels like he is still sort of buzzing, and might be the film's only chance.

Actor

Peter O'Toole - Venus - Due and raved. People love a comeback story.
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness - Everyone loves Smith, and the movie looks like feel good bait a la Finding Neverland
Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland - Buzz has faded, but it was strong enough to last him.
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson - Critic awards WILL love him, and is a MAJOR darkhorse to win if he has the right momentum with precursors.
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed - They better declare him lead soon, or Aaron Eckhardt and Matt Damon will take this spot.

Actress

Helen Mirren - The Queen - Yeah. There is no stopping her.
Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal - AMPAS loves her so much they would lick her shoes. Plus she plays creepy...and that works if done well.
Kate Winslet - Little Children - Buzz is gone, but will it come back when the film releases wider?
Penelope Cruz - Volver - Buzz has remained consistent and the only things holding her back are subtitles.
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada - Continues to reinvent herself, and AMPAS continues to reward her. She's in.

Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt - Babel - Big stars are rewarded when they actually act.
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls - Flashy role that no one else can offer in this race.
Michael Sheen - The Queen - Beautiful performance powerful enough not to get trampled by Mirren's talent. He kept up with her, which is impressive.
Jack Nicholson - The Departed - Umm...he was a lock after the first frame.
Ben Affleck - Hollywoodland - That's right. Write it down.

Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls - She filled the role's shoes according to early notices. This American Idolist is Not Going anywhere.
Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal - Previous winner with a high profile year and a performance in an acting-central film opposite Dench makes for a nomination.
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine - Let's hope HFPA doesn't screw things up by putting her in lead.
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel - Up and coming talent in a role so powerful she commands the film without a single word. A darkhorse to win.
Adriana Barraza - Babel - Represents the pure sentiment of the film. Powerful and painful. Brilliant.

There they are, and I would love to know what you think. COMMENT.

Supporting Updates

2006-11-09T01:28:00.000-06:00

Supporting Acting noms are always a little bit tricky, and can be confusing as hell. You never know if Judi Dench can win for an eight-minute role, or if William Hurt will get even get nominated for an equally brief role. Damn the power of Judi Dench! This year is no different with Babel's multiple supporting possibilities and Dreamgirls's buzz for someone who has never acted in a major picture before. So here's the run-down, and excuse me for not being so elaborate as the leading categories. There are simply...too many actors. Excuse the Amadeus reference.

Supporting Actor:

Jack Nicholson The Departed
Eddie Murphy Dreamgirls
Alan Arkin Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley Little Children
Brad Pitt Babel

Here's the thing, the race is pretty open except for Mr. Nicholson. By switching to the supporting category, he almost locks himself into a nomination and possibly a trip to the podium.

Murphy's flashy character is exactly the kind supporting categories love to recognize, and AMPAS loves to nominate actors they once thought were going to be a phenomenal presence at the Kodak over and over again.

Alan Arkin stands the be the only man from Little Miss Sunshine to get nominated, despite equally brilliant performances from Carell and Kinnear. Never underestimate the power of a comeback story.

Jackie Earle Haley is my out-there-but-not-so-out-there-pick with his performance in Little Children. The role is baity as hell, and he is a child star coming into his talent all over again. Again, never underestimate a comeback.

Pitt is an interesting story. He is getting raves for a film that was once thought to be a critical darling, but stumbled out of the block. The question seems to be: will his performance overcome the unmet high expectations? I think so. He is present in the headlines, and that never hurts. Plus, he's pretty. Who doesn't want to see him gussied up come Oscar night?

Here are the little more far-fetched For Your Consideration-ers:

Michael Sheen The Queen
Ben Affleck Hollywoodland
James Cromwell The Queen (I am pulling for his beautiful performance over Sheen's)
Djimon Hounsou Blood Diamond
Stanley Tucci The Devil Wears Prada

Now for the ladies!!! Even more confusing. Ugh....

Abigail Breslin Little Miss Sunshine
Cate Blanchett Notes On A Scandal
Rinku Kinkuchi Babel
Vera Farmiga The Departed
Phyllis Sommerville Little Children

That's right. I am not predicting Jennifer Hudson! Until the movie is reviewed, or, you know, seen at all, I remain skeptical about the American Idol-er. But let's break it down now.

Abigail Breslin is the powerhouse backbone of the indie-hit Little Miss Sunshine and deserves to take home a statue just for having a powerful and commanding presence for a role that could have fallen flat as hell if anyone else played it. Yeah, even Dakota Fanning couldn't be that cute.

Blanchett has the fortune of starring opposite Oscar favorite Judi Dench, and the trailer is hot like fire too, which generates massive buzz. The role looks risky, conflicted and baity too. It doesn't hurt that she has an Oscar already, and the snubbed status for her nomination for Elizabeth (Stupid Gwen Paltrow).

Kinkuchi is storming onto the Oscar scene for her tragically beautiful portrayal of a deaf-mute in Babel. She's being called the stand out of the film, and in a movie with Pitt and Blanchett, that means a lot.

Farmiga probably won't get nominated, but she is the only female in what I believe is an Oscar Best Picture winner and she's so underrated. With a character that can be identified with, she delivers a performance that is easily the most human this year's race has seen. She is real, and reality should be recognized.

If Jackie Earle Haley is scary in Little Children then Phyllis Somerville is heartbreaking. After reading the book, she (not Winslet's character) is the one you feel for. The mother of a sex offender is a baity role to say the least, and if she doesn't get vast critic and guild precursor recognition, I will be shocked.

Rounding out the top ten:

Jennifer Hudson Dreamgirls (I had to cave a little bit)
Adriana Barraza Babel
Catherine O'Hara For Your Consideration
Carmen Maura Volver
Shareeka Epps Half Nelson

Changes in leading categories:

Actor stays the same pretty much, but I am putting Sacha Baron Cohen in for the hell of it.

For Actress, I hate to say that Benning has dropped from the race because critics panned the film like no other, and Judi Dench is simply too powerful to be ignored.

The Question of Dreamgirls, The Case for Borat

2006-11-07T13:13:00.000-06:00

When trying to think of a topic for this week's column, I spent hours surfing the web for a semblance of importance concerning the Oscar race. The blogs all over the net are running dry, due to very slow couple of weeks. Until Borat roped in some 27 million in an under 1,000 theater count, and a staggering 96% RottenTomatoes rating (100% COTC), making it one of the best reviewed films of the year, falling in line with Oscar contenders The Queen, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine.

So does Oscar have anything to offer for Borat?

It seems to be the best screened film of the year, and the only internet buzzed movie that actually translated to the box office like Snakes On A Plane could not. Yet only David Poland of Movie City News was thinking that Sacha Baron Cohen could be considered for his acting.

The Academy has nominated before comedies, but usually only the high-brow type of comedy that Borat doesn't appear to be. You can bet this genre comedy will get ignored, despite its critical appraisal, satirical pointedness, and box office success.

But I find it interesting that a movie no one has seen, save 20 screened minutes to generate buzz, is seen as the far and away front-runner now that Flags Of Our Fathers stumbled. Dreamgirls has everything that Chicago had: social commentary, flashy numbers, fleshy characters, and an opportunity for stars in Hollywood to prove themselves.

The difference? Dreamgirls has it on paper. That's it. Certainly the case can be made that "clear frontrunners" in November tend to fail more than succeed. Shall we remember the intense Best Picture buzz for Memoirs Of A Geisha last year? Not to mention the fact that two "frontrunner" movies-from-Broadway have flopped in each of the last two years: The Producers and Phantom Of The Opera. Can't we wait until we see it, or hear anything from people who have seen it?

The flashy Tony-winner will start screening in the next few weeks, and we will begin to see the true colors of this film. It is my opinion that the success or failure of the film rides on Jennifer Hudson's shoulders. Effie steals the show, and if Hudson doesn't rock out, the film won't have the legs to carry it to a win, much less a nomination.

I'm not ready to put trust in a film that is relying on a sixth-place American Idoler to carry it. But I hope I'm wrong.

Another Leading Lady?

2006-11-02T01:09:00.000-06:00

Last year, Ziyi Zhang could have been the first Asian to be nominated in the lead category for actresses for her role in Memoirs Of A Geisha but she fell short. This year, one of her co-stars, Gong Li, could snag a nod herself.

Sony Pictures Classic annouced that they are launching a campaign for Gong Li and director Zhang Yimou for their work on Curse Of The Golden Flower, paving the way for what could be major buzz for Gong Li, and the Academy's first Asian nomination in the category.

But with the likes of Mirren, Winslet, and Benning in the race, it will be an uphill battle for Gong Li to be honored in what is becoming a very close and competitive category.

Oscar Preview: Best Actress

2006-10-31T08:04:00.000-06:00

Well, this is one of the more interesting categories right now, seeing as how the field has narrowed ridiculously fast. There are about ten lovely ladies who are definitely in the race as of now, which is a lot more than we can say about other categories (cough supporting cough). Lets take a look...in no particular order.

Annette Benning: Running With Scissors

The film has been critically assaulted as something as bad as Jackass 2, or the Grudge 2, or any film with the number 2 in it, but Benning somehow stays in the race. Her character is eccentric, interesting, and just plain crazy. And if American Beauty taught us anything it's that Benning infuses a human-side to crazy that keeps the character from being caricature. Despite the fact that Hilary Swank isn't in the race to beat Benning out this year, I think we can be safe to say she won't be credited with the coveted "Oscar Winner" pre-fix.

Penelope Cruz: Volver

This is an interesting one. Especially since Robert Benigni is the only person to win an Oscar with a non-English speaking role. However, Cruz has been lauded at film festivals and early reviews as being a pure revelation. Basically, any media outlet that could predict her for an Oscar nomination has, and will continue to. Cruz's roles in American mainstream movies like Blow or Gothika might give her enough exposure to AMPAS voters that they not only recognize her, but vote for her.

Helen Mirren: The Queen

The frontrunner and soon to be winner of critic award after critic award, Mirren is locked into the shortlist. Her delicate and withdrawn performance is not only a stunning model of powerful restraint, but is simply awe-inspiring. But the power of a performance isn't enough for a win if the film isn't equally as powerful (See: Benning, or 2005's Huffman). Mirren need not worry though. The Queen is not carried by Mirren. Mirren helps it along, but the supporting performances, writing, and directing are just as flawless. Everything is going Mirren's way right now.

Meryl Streep: The Devil Wears Prada

You can never count out Meryl can you? Almost the moment the 2005 ceremony ended, bloggers were predicting Streep, but not for this popcorn film. Many thought a supporting nod for A Prairie Home Companion would be her fourteenth, not the stunning turn as dragon-lady Miranda Priestly in this summer's surprise hit The Devil Wears Prada. Probably the only outstanding aspect in the film (except for Stanley Tucci and Emily Blunt), Streep carries the film with a power that is so frightening you can't help but laugh as a defense mechanism. She signed her name on the top five this year with that beautifully depressing make-up free, red-eyed scene near the end that is so memorable, and voters are sure not to forget an actress that continues to reinvent herself.

Kate Winslet: Little Children

When discussing actresses who reinvent themselves (as I just was), no one comes to mind as clearly and powerfully as Kate Winslet. Donning a selective attitude towards choosing her roles, Winslet has created an embedded craving for her performances, and she never fails to deliver. Being only thirty, she has four Oscar noms, and a fifth on the way. The buzz for her nuanced self-conscious deglam performance in Todd Field's Little Children started out strong, but has dropped a little bit as Mirren's performance went into wider release. Wait for Little children to release a bit wider in America, and more people will start talking. Never underestimate the love for Kate Winset.

This is an exceeding strong category this year, which was definitely needed after last year's lack luster leading category for the ladies. Rounding out the top ten with just as much skill are...

Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal
Cate Blanchett - The Good German
Sienna Miller - Factory Girl
Maggie Gyllenhaal - Sherrybaby
Renee Zelwegger - Miss Potter

Let It Begin...

2006-09-26T14:25:00.000-05:00

I suppose I should jump back into the race of predicting, huh? The festivals have begun, Toronto has past, and a few individuals have seemingly locked their nominations already. Over the next few days I will update category by category, so let's start the madness...

BEST ACTOR:

Not necessarily as strong of a category as it has been in the past, but still showing a lot of promise. The players are old, new, and unexpected, showing that Oscar is never afraid to reward up-and-comers, comebacks, and regulars.

1. Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland.

After his touring of the festivals and early online reviews, it appears that nothing can stop Whitaker's turn as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin from being honored at the Kodak, possibly at the podium. It doesn't hurt that he is a Hollywood presence that has yet to be recognized by the Academy. We know how AMPAS loves to recognize respected under-the-radar character actors (cough Philip Seymour Hoffman cough). The film is being praised as the most important movie of the year, and will hold a lot of power come awards night.

2. Peter O'Toole - Venus

Ah, the comeback, how we love thee. Snubbed more times than Maria Bello and Paul Giamatti combined, O'Toole, one of the best actors to grace the silver screen, has never won an Oscar, but it seems he is at least on his way to another nomination. Nominations are something O'Toole is used to, but it would be nice to win after seven nominations and an Honorary Oscar. The performance is the only one to really contend with Whitaker right now.

3. Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness

Will Smith is loved, that much is obvious with the success of Hitch. But Will Smith acting with all his skill is astonishing. Smith renders a level of passion and heart to these roles that audiences live for. Just look at his previous Oscar nominated turn in Ali. His appearance in even the most mediocre of movies (I, Robot) brings audiences to the theatre in waves. The role looks baity, and heart-warming, and the fact that it might be the feel good movie of the year doesn't hurt. Looking forward to seeing this one.

4. Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson

Ryan Gosling exploded onto the scene with his critically acclaimed role in "The Believer" and kept "The Notebook" from being a tired and boring film. He has a charisma that makes him one of the most promising young actors today, and his performance in Half Nelson is no exception. Critics have been praising his work as the drug-addicted school teacher as being a performance of a lifetime. Perhaps Gosling is this year's Ledger: young, but powerful.

5. Matt Damon - The Good Shepherd

Ironically, I was debating between Damon in The Good Shepherd and Clooney in The Good German, but I don't think Clooney will get another year of nominations given his overexposure last year. Damon has had a mediocre post-win career, but has come back to the good graces of critics with The Bourne supremacy and The Departed. He seems to have great projects falling in line, and is due for an another acting nomination. The Good Shepherd is baity as all hell: government plots, the CIA, the "supporting wife character," Oscar pedigree cast (Baldwin, Pesci, De Niro, Jolie), and seems to have a good amount of buzz behind it. Damon needs to shine to pull this nomination off, but I think he can.

What out for these as well:

Jude Law - Breaking and Entering
Richard Gere - The Hoax
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed
Brad Pitt - Babel (Not sure about category yet)
George Clooney - The Good German
Patrick Wilson - Little Children
Robin Williams - Man Of The Year
Christian Bale - The Prestige (Please God!)
Nic Cage - WTC
Derek Luke - Catch A Fire
Ken Watanabe - Letters From Iwo Jima

Next Up: Actress

United 93 - A Balancing Act...A Good One Too

2006-05-15T19:11:00.000-05:00

When trailers for Paul Greengrass's 9/11-pic "United 93" hit theaters around the nation, many were outraged that Hollywood had stooped low enough to exploit national tragedy for a summer action flicks and a quick buck. Few suspected the reality of the situation: that U-93 would receive the universal rave reviews it did, and would be considered the first film of 2006 to actually make a run for the podium.

Greengrass balances a fine line between tragedy exploitation and melodramatic fluff to create an honest and riveting account of the events of September 11th, 2001. The film not only centers on United flight 93, the only flight to not reach its target, but also the air-traffic control of the FAA, NORAD, and other airport control towers.

Greengrass spends the first hour of the film creating a tangible element of suspense. We know what is going to happen, so the events leading up to the takeover of the four planes are that much more effective. As subtle as the door of flight 93 locking shut, and as obvious as an air-traffic analyst discovery that multiple planes, rather than just one, have been hijacked, each shot opens old wounds and sends chills of recognition down more than a few spines.

With incredible integration of actual news footage, as the events unfold, the audience is left reliving the entire day, which can be a good and a bad thing. While some may not be completely ready for such a real depiction of such a devastating day, others may use the film as a subtle reminder of our nation's fallibility. Whether you see it now or later, I urge everyone to see it at one point. It is by far the most important movie of the year, despite the political nature of other 2006 movies (cough "V for Vendetta" cough).

"United 93" is the stuff of great humanity: fear, anger, confusion, bravery, honesty, love, and inspiration. The film can never be enjoyed because of its close attachment to such a morose day, but it should certainly be admired, revered, and honored.

The film will not earn any acting nominations except a possible SAG Ensemble Cast award. The films standout performances are not easily singled out because all are equally brilliant. The short phone conversations the passengers to family members deserve Oscar recognition by themselves, but not even the Academy would recognize such small performances.

The directing stands a significant chance of nomination. Greengrass chooses his hand-held, shaky camera work to add a sense of tension and reality. From the very first scene, we are not an audience watching a screen, but an audience standing in the room, office, cockpit, or cabin. His choice to use mostly unknown actors augments the feeling that this could have happened to any of us. Though his shaky camera work grows tiresome and dizzying in some scenes, it serves its purpose for the most part.

Expect possible nominations in some of the tech categories, screenplay, directing, and picture.

Greengrass' new piece-de-reality is the first major Oscar contender of the year. While early release dates have hindered the Oscar buzz for films and performances in the past, the success of last year's Best Pic "Crash" proves that great films are great films, no matter when they were released.

GRADE: A

PGA, Globes, and BAFTA oh my!

2006-01-23T20:41:00.000-06:00

These past few days have been interesting to say the least. The Globes gave away their awards which were strange, and expected. The Globes are always a bit crazy. Today the PGA released that Brokeback Mountain took its top prize, which only cements its position as a clear frontrunner. PGA did the same with awarding Wallace and Gromit for Animated film. But lets break it down...

The Globes gave top honors to Brokeback Mountain (duh) and Walk The Line. WTL's award helps it into the fifth BP nomination which it is struggling to secure. It seems that WTL's buzz is fading fast, but the Globe helps to boost it chances. Winning for Best Actress is Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Huffman. Both actresses barely had any competition in their respective categories, which only points out that these two leading ladies are the only ones locked in for a nom. Best Actor was a no brainer as well. Hoffman and Phoenix took home the gold. While both had competition with Ledger and Daniels, the two overcame any challenges they might have had. Jeff Daniels had one chance to upset Phoenix to be a serious contender for the race, but his chances seem very unlikely. Ledger's only chance to set the stage for an upset in March is to win the last MAJOR precursor of the year: the SAG. Though unlikely, it will make things interesting. The Globes decided to mix things up with the Supporting categories instead. Giving the awards to Rachel Weisz and George Clooney, it seems that the HFPA were into giving awards to the contenders many had pegged for second. Clooney's Globe shows that Giamatti is hardly unbeatable and Michelle Williams is hurt seriously with this loss. The SAG could be her savior, but Amy Adams will be hard to beat.

The BAFTA nominees were announced. They were surprisingly stale with one exception: Brokeback Mountain didn't get all the most nominations, but rather, a British film did (surprise). The Constant Gardener had 10 nominations while BBM only had nine. However, TCG received nominations for BOTH Best Picture and Best British Picture. Had BBM been a British film, the two would probably be tied. In other news, Keira got snubbed again while Thandie Newton got a nomination that she SO deserves, I'm hoping Oscar listens. Rachel Weisz was placed in lead for actress, which doesn't hold too much weight.

Updates on predictions to the right. I am prediciting some upsets...so bare with me. These are my FINAL predictions. Nominees are announced in just over a week.

The Guilds Weigh In...

2006-01-09T19:16:00.000-06:00

Well the SAG, DGA, PGA, and WGA, have all weighed in on what they think are the best films of the year. In each of their respective categories, the guilds locked nominees and mixed up others. Lets dive in...

Best Picture:
With nominations from all of the guilds, the year seems to belong entirely to Brokeback Mountain. Earning more Globes and Guild nominations than any other picture, it is the undisputed frontrunner. However, the guilds were very good to two small films that were in the "Honorable Mention" category: Crash and Capote. Each film rocketed forward into the top five, while others stumbled. Munich and King Kong are nearly dead in the Best Picture Best Director race. Spielberg managed to grab the DGA nom, but Kong missed on all accounts. With films like Match Point and The New World also getting dropped, the race is getting good.

Actor:
Hoffman, Ledger, Straitharn, and Phoenix all seem to be locked, but who will win the fifth spot. Russel Crowe sneaked into the fifth spot that seems to be the only one up for grabs, ahead of Terrence Howard. Crowe was all but dead in this category, but the fifth spot could be his to lose. Its a coiin flip between the two actors now.

Actress: Well, three spots are pretty locked down now. Huffman, Witherspoon, and Dench seem to be the only definites. Watts and Allen missed out on the Guild nominations while Ziyi Zhang is surprisingly receiving noms for both the Globes and the SAG. Charleze Theron seems to be consistent for her slightly less than Monster performance. Again, the last two spots could go to any of those four women. Don't forget if Bello is placed in the leadign category like the Globes did, same for Laura Linney.

Supporting Actor:
Hmmmm...another fifth spot quandry. Gyllenhaal, Clooney, Giamatti, Dillon, all seem to have locked their first career Oscar nominations, but who will take the fifth spot. Most people seem to believe that fifth spot will go to one of the other Crash men: Terrence Howard or Don Chaedle who received an out of nowhere nom for the SAG. Many other might throw in a career nom for Frank Langella or possibly the beautiful and haunting cameo William Hurt delivered in A history of Violence

Supporting Actress:
What to do what to do? What many considered the weakest category of the year has suddenly become the most confusing. There are many possibilties here, but no real front runner. Michelle Williams, Rachel Weisz, and possibly Maria Bello might have their locks in, but other actresses are hot on their trail. Gong Li, Frances McDormand, Amy Adams, and Catherine Keener are all threatening. Laura Linney could pull a surprise nom out of the blue as well. This is getting good.

The Guilds certainly helped define the race, but also mudled it up a bit. Updated predictions are reflected on the right.

Spielberg Crafts Thriller Of The Year, But It's Not Enough

2005-12-30T03:45:00.000-06:00

REVIEW: Munich

Encountering more Oscar buzz than almost any other film this year, Steven Spielberg's "Munich" was heavily anticipated, to say the least. Most interesting, was the choice to not campaign this film for the Oscars, which of course only created more buzz and mystery to its existence. After it's release, the film, unlike others (Memoirs of a Geisha), holds up to its buzz. Though not Best Picture worthy, it is entirely worthy of a nomination.

Centering on the events that occurred after the attacks and assassinations of the Israeli Olympic team of 1972, Tony Kushner(Angels In America), pens one of the most sophisticated thrillers of our time. Including conversations that, though they took place in 1972, ring with a certain truth today. Reminding us that not much has changed. The screenplay has its breathtaking moments, and should be rewarded accordingly.

Onto the acting. Eric Bana, though not being recognized by any major precursor award has still been looked at as a major contender for the Best Actor category. Portraying Avner, the leader of the five men sent to kill eleven men that had a hand in planning the attacks at the Olympics, Bana will unfortunately be overlooked. Though his performance transcends the average movie's lead, his role will probably lead him to a second tier nomination. However, don't let this prediction deceive you. He could very likely have to get used to having "Academy Award Nominee" in front of his name due to the last thirty minutes of the film. Bana takes the dark twist in the film as an opportunity to bolster his character and performance, which tips me off to what was wrong with the first 2 and a half hours: a lack of substance. Though the character is supposed to have underlying father issues that ultimately lead him to take the job, Bana never seemed to add that layer. Perhaps because the script itself never drastically pointed out that character trait. However, near the climax of the film and Avner's return home, Bana slops on a whole new layer of subtext, continuously reminding us of how the past year has haunted him and affects his daily life. This is exemplified in a heart breaking scene where Avner rummages through his house looking, desperately, for anything that might literally blow up in his face. Though Bana portrays a beautiful post-assassination Avner, the character is not difficult enough or solidly performed to earn a nomination in this very difficult category.

The film, however, belongs to the ladies. Though their character's time on film are few and far between, they demand every minute they have on it, a la Judi Dench in Shakespeare In Love. Marie-Josee Croze portrays a powerful yet tender mother who simply wants her husband back. Reminding us of wives left at home during war time, her husband is at war, but she has no one to sympathize with. Stranded in New York with a new born and no husband, Croze does everything right. When Avner returns home, she does not break down in tears because she is a very strong-willed woman. Expressing concern for her haunted husband, we see her heart-break and her undying love for the man she used to know. The second female of the film award goes to the very surprising performance of Lynn Cohen and her portrayal of Golda Meir, the Israeli Prime Minister. Golda Meir, historically known as the mother of Israel, is strong and unique. We see her grief over the loss of her fellow citizens and also, in one particular scene, the conflict of her personal feelings for family (her sister) when confronted with the funeral of the athletes. Dressed, literally, in clothes fit for a grandmother, this small lady still commands the attention and respect of every man in a scene with her. Unfortunately, these two performances are extremely brief, but you never know. Perhaps the Academy will smile on these under-dog performances...They have before.

Steven Spielberg does a masterful job with this film. Reminding us of Clint Eastwood's work in Million Dollar Baby, he directs the film with an everchanging scope. Changing lighting and shots to become more dramatic and dark as the film leaves its light hearted side in the dusk of multiple explosions. Though the film drags a bit in the middle, the noteworthy directing is exemplified by his choices involving the exposition of the massacre and the films final thirty minutes. It is as if Spielberg just decided to make a brilliant film, rather than just a good one. Unfortunately, it is a little too little too late. Because the film drags on a bit in the middle, leaving many wondering why the film had to be three hours, Munich lacks some of the power of other contenders like Brokeback Mountain and Good Night and Good Luck, but it will certainly be in the running.

RATING: A-

"Walk The Line" Feels All Too Familiar

2005-12-26T19:58:00.000-06:00

REVIEW: Walk The Line

This has obviously been a long time coming seeing as how the movie came out a little while ago, but better late then never.

The movie centers around the life and drama of the acclaimed singer/songwriter Johnny Cash. Struggling through a multitude of problems, Walk The Line exposes almost every trouble that Johnny Cash must have gone through. Echoing in the wake of last years Ray, WTL has a similar feel, including all too familiar scenes from the singer's childhood life on a farm, drug abuse, affairs, and much much more!

While this movie may differ from the type of music being sung, this seems to be the carbon copy of last year's Ray. So naturally, WTL expresses similar upsides, and drawbacks. Like Ray, WTL provides for amazing performances in almost all the characters.

Mr. Phoenix plays Johnny Cash with ease and brilliance, making sure that each moment of silent reflection is as powerful as his spoken ones. In some of Cash's more down-trodden of experiences, phoenix truly shines, showing that the power of a scene does not have to be compassion and sympathy for a character, but can be equally effective with the reaction of pity and sorrow. We know the potential of Cash, and it literally hurts us to see him stumbling around amidst the judgment of his supposed peers. Successfully, phoenix so brilliantly portrays Cash's downfall, that the subsequent upward climb feels all the better to the viewer. Phoenix will most likely, like Jaime Foxx, receive his second Academy Award nomination.

Reese Witherspoon is the other star of this movie. In some scenes, she even outperforms her co-star. Playing with June Carter's constructed hilarity, while simultaneously embracing her innocence and blind love, Reese Witherspoon is nothing more than a joy to watch. The brilliance of the performance comes with the complexity of June Carter's defense mechanisms. She sees her true love on a downward spiral and tries to protect herself from the pain she can only assume will hit her head on. The true brilliance of the performance however, comes not with Witherspoon's ability to show these defense mechanisms, but her ability to show how fragile they are. We see her trying to distance herself, but at the same time, it so apparent that the steps she is taking to keep herself from being involved with Cash are seemingly futile. In the film's pinnacle scene (involving a proposal on stage), we see those carefully constructed walls crumble...And we couldn't be happier. Reese Witherspoon, snubbed for her performance in Election, will surely get her first nomination for Best Actress. Along with Felicity Huffman, Reese Witherspoon is one of the category's only locks.

Unfortunately, the talent and performance of the individual actors far outdoes the quality of the film, a problem many had with Ray. WTL is a brilliant character movie, but never ventures away from its "Made For TV" feel. With awkward editing and a few second-too-long closeups, the movie has its flaws. We, as viewers, can watch and appreciate the characters and their interactions, but never truly become involved with the film. WTL lacks the quality that truly affects the viewer, a quality that Million Dollar Baby easily possessed. While this film may get its nomination for Best Picture, it will suffer the same fate as Ray and The Aviator, a worthy nomination and a reputation for being known as incredibly acted bio-pics.

RATING: B+

2005-12-26T03:00:00.000-06:00

The Predictions for the end of December are as follows. They don't represent the changes that will come with The SAG Award noms, the guilds, and the Golden Globe results.

Picture:
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night And Good Luck
3. Munich
4. Walk The Line
5. King Kong
Honorable Mention: A History of Violence, Match Point, Cinderella Man

Director:
1. Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
2. Steven Speilberg - Munich
3. George Clooney - GNGL
4: Peter Jackson - King Kong
5: David Cronenberg - AHOV
HM: Bennett Miller, Woody Allen

Actor:
1. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
2. Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
3. Jaoquin Pheonix - Walk The Line
4. David Straitharn - GNGL
5. Jeff Daniels - The Squid And The Whale
HM: Viggo Mortenson, Terrence Howard

Actress:
1. Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
2. Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line
3. Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger
4. Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice
5. Naomi Watts - King Kong
HM: Judi Dench, Charlize Theron, Laura Linney

Supporting Actor:
1. Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
2. Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
3. Matt Dillon - Crash
4. George Clooney - Syriana
5. Kevin Costner - The Upside of Anger
HM: William Hurt, Bob Hoskins

Supporting Actress:
1. Maria Bello - A History of Violence
2. Scarlett Johansson - Match Point
3. Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
4. Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardner
5. Amy Adams - Junebug
HM: Laura Linney, Diane Keaton

Comment: While I am fairly certain that Laura Linney will capture a nomination for her work in The Squid And The Whale, I am not entirely sure which way she is being campaigned: Supporting, or Lead. Which is why she is only an Honorable Mention as of now

2005-12-26T02:12:00.000-06:00

Welcome to the beginning of what I hope will become an enjoyable and informational cite. The Opened Envelope aims to predict and analyze the latest Oscar race. This includes predictions, precursor awards, category analysis and movie reviews. All of which are soon to come.

Next post will include detailed predictions for each major category.

Hope you enjoy!