Washington DC Film Critics Weigh In...

PICTURE: United 93
DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
ACTOR: Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
ACTRESS: Helen Mirren, The Queen
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Little Miss Sunshine
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Thank You For Smoking
BREAKTHROUGH: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
ENSEMBLE: Little Miss Sunshine
FOREIGN FILM: Pan's Labyrinth
DOCUMENTARY: An Inconvenient Truth
ANIMATED: Happy Feet

LAFCA Awards 'Letters' and 'The Queen'

Picture:
Letters From Iwo Jima
Runner Up: The Queen

Director:
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Runner Up: Clint Eastwood, Flags of our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima

Actor:
TIE Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat AND Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland

Actress:
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Runner Up: Penelope Cruz, Volver

Supporting Actor:
Michael Sheen, The Queen
Runner Up: Sergi Lopez, Pan's Labyrinth

Supporting Actress:
Luminata Gheorghiu, The Death of Mr. Lazarescu
Runner Up: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Screenplay:
The Queen
Runner Up: Little Miss Sunshine

New York FIlm Critics Online Awards...

Picture: The Queen
Director: Stephen Frears, The Queen
Screenplay: The Queen
Actor: Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Supporting Actor: Michael Sheen, The Queen
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls TIE Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration
Ensemble: Little Miss Sunshine
Breakthrough: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Documentary: An Inconcenvient Truth
Foreign Language: Pan's Labyrinth
Animated: Happy Feet
Score: The Illusionist

Top Ten:
Babel
The Fountain
Inland Empire
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen
Thank You For Smoking
Volver
Water

Boston Film Critics Speak Out

Best Picture:
The Departed
Runner Up: United 93

Best Director:
Martin Scorcese, The Departed
Runner Up: Paul Greengrass, United 93

Best Actor:
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Runner Up: Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

Best Actress:
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Runner Up: Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal

Best Supporting Actor:
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
Runner Up: TIE: Michael Sheen, The Queen and Alec Baldwin, The Departed/Running With Scissors/The Good Shephard

Best Supporting Actress:
Shareeka Epps, Half Nelson
Runner Up: Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Ensemble:
United 93
Runner Up: The Departed

Screenplay:
The Departed
Runner Up: The Queen

Forgein Language:
Pan's Labyrinth
Runner Up: Volver

Documentary:
TIE: Deliver Us From Evil/Shut Up and Sing

New Filmmaker:
Ryan Fleck, Half Nelson

AFI Announces Top Ten

Babel
Borat: Cultural Learnings Of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Half Nelson
Happy Feet
Inside Man
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
United 93

Anyone notice an absense? AFI left out The Departed for The Devil Wears Prada and Inside Man

HUGE shocker!

Prediction Updates

Post NBR predictions are up and running without any huge changes. Actually, most of the more significant shifts are in the "For Your Consideration" sections. I am also ordering the predictions according to most likely to receive a nomination, instead of the my old way of alphabetizing it. Check it out.

More predictions after Globes and LA Critics announce

P.S. I LOVE how open the supporting Actress race is. Brittany Murphy????

NBR: Naturally Bizarre Recognition

Commentary Below

Variety Reports - LETTERS OF IWO JIMA BEST FILM!

Best Film: LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
Best Director: MARTIN SCORSESE, The Departed
Best Actor: FOREST WHITAKER, The Last King of Scotland
Best Actress: HELEN MIRREN, The Queen
Best Supporting Actor: DJIMON HOUNSOU, Blood Diamond
Best Supporting Actress: CATHERINE O'HARA, For Your Consideration
Best Foreign Film: VOLVER
Best Documentary: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
Best Animated Feature: CARS
Best Ensemble Cast: THE DEPARTED
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: RYAN GOSLING, Half Nelson
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: (2)
JENNIFER HUDSON, Dreamgirls and RINKO KIKUCHI, Babel

Best Directorial Debut: JASON REITMAN, Thank You for Smoking
Best Original Screenplay: ZACH HELM, Stranger Than Fiction
Best Adapted Screenplay: RON NYSWANER, The Painted Veil


The top 10 from the National Board of Review:

"Letters From Iwo Jima"
"Babel"
"Blood Diamond"
"The Departed"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"Flags Of Our Fathers"
"The History Boys"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Notes on a Scandal"
"The Painted Veil"


Um....wow. No Dreamgirls, no 9/11 films, no Little Children, no The Queen. I was on the edge of including Letters from Iwo Jima for the win, but I wasn't sure if the film was seen enough. The Devil Wears Prada and Blood Diamond get some pretty big boosts here, but I can't imagine that they would be put into the final five.

Djimon Hounsou and Catherine O'Hara get HUGE kudos here and their performances are now back on the market. The Painted Veil and Stranger Than Fiction grab some screenplay noms that are somewhat expected, but still surprising.

Forest Whitaker gets a renewal of the buzz that had long since faded, and is now reentering the frontrunner battle with Peter O'Toole.

This is very very interesting now.

Quick Thank You

Last Tuesday, I put up a counter at the bottom of the blog to see how much the page is being viewed, and I am proud to say that after one week, I have 424 hits. That is probably small pickens to the larger bloggers out there, but I just started. Thanks to those who read. Thanks so much.

It's Question Time

You will have to answer this one a little later than tonight since it lines up with the NBR announcements.

Given that the NBR's top ten had all five Best Picture nominees last year, which five of the top ten do you think will get the nominations? And if NBR missed one movie that will get the nod, what is it?

Go to town! Be realistic.

Updates on Predictions...

I will have a full update on predictions tomorrow night barring the release of the NBR announcements. But for fun, here are the NBR predictions from moi.

Best Picture: The Queen vs. The Departed vs. Little Miss Sunshine
Advantage: The Departed

Top Ten:
The Queen
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Babel
United 93
Little Miss Sunshine
Flags Of Our Fathers
Little Children
Half Nelson
Children Of Men

Best Actor: Ryan Gosling vs. Peter O'Toole
Advantage: Gosling

Best Actress: Helen Mirren vs. Kate Winslet vs. Maggie Gyllenhaal
Advantage: Mirren

Best Supporting Actress: Rinku Kikuchi vs. Jennifer Hudson
Advantage: Hudson

Best Supporting Actor: Jack Nicholson vs. Alan Arkin vs. Brad Pitt
Advantage: Nicholson

Best Director: Martin Scorsese vs. Stephen Frears
Advantage: Scorsese

Breakthrough Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen vs. Adam Beach
Advantage: Adam Beach

Breakthrough Actress: The loser of supporting actress vs. Shareeka Epps
Advantage: Epps

Best Adapted Screenplay: Little Children vs. Thank You For Smoking
Advantage: Little Children

Best Original Screenplay: Babel vs. The Queen
Advantage: Babel

Best Debut Director: Ryan Fleck

Best Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth

Best Foreign Language Film: Volver vs. Pan's Labyrinth
Advantage: Volver

Best Ensemble: Little Miss Sunshine vs. United 93
Advantage: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Animated Feature: Happy Feet vs. A Scanner Darkly
Advantage: Happy Feet

Quickies

Babel

Alejandro González Iñárritu's recent depiction into the morose connectivity of us all brings up a lot of seemingly important and timely questions without ever truly answering any of them. Though technically beautifully crafted, Iñárritu's story of the intertwining lives surounding the attack of an American tourist (Blanchett) in Morocco and the subsequent search for understading loses its impact simply because it tries too hard. Instead of being a subtle foray into the paradox of lost communication in a time of universal similarity, Babel gets bogged down by a hit-you-over-the-head simplicity that has doomed other films such as The Woodsman to mediocrity.

The acting is superb and the diretion to match, but nothing can make up for the script that tries too hard. Yes, we get that we don't understand each other any more, but what more can the film offer other than that all too obvious assertion? Ultimately, the most interesting storyline, Rinku Kikuchi's brilliantly crafted deaf-mute character, seems to be the least involved with any of the film's other major players. Sure, she acts as the only representation of someone who literally cannot communicate her words or emotions, but it remains unclear if Babel is a story that uses one event as a microcosm for a larger issue, or one event plus a random person.

It could not have been crafted more beautifully with its precise direction, emotionally draining acting, and haunting score, but Babel falls apart, ironically, in it's overcommunication.

Grade: C+

Satellite Noms Announced

The Satellite Awards tend to nominate a larger group of people, and because they separate their nominations into comedy and drama like the Globes do, they tend to make things pretty exciting. The Satallite Awards narrow the field, but by nominating almost 7 films/performances per category, they introduce some new names too. Which is just fun. Here's the breakdown...

Dreamgirls - 11
Flags Of Our Father - 10
Babel - 8
The Departed - 6
Little Miss Sunshine - 5
The Queen - 4
Litte Children - 4
Notes On A Scandal - 3

Duh! - The Ones We Expect

Helen Mirren - Nominated for lead actress. Helps her buzz which many feared would fade. A win would be nice though.

Dreamgirls - Knocking out 11 nominations, it leads the pack for the first time, which is not the last time the film will have that distinction.

Judi Dench - Will she ever not be nominated?

Jack Nicholson - Heeeeeeeere's Jack!

Nice! - The Ones That Needed It

Ryan Gosling and Half Nelson - Gosling is starting to become an automatic mention with his ISA nomination and Half Nelson sweeping the Gothams. A snub here would have hurt though. It helps that the film picked up the best pic nod as well.

Kate Winslet - Buzz has practically dissappeared. This puts her back on the map.

Forest Whitaker - Same situation as Winslet. Snub was possible here...good that it didn't happen.

Adam Beach and Flags - Not on anyone's top five anymore. This nod helps bring him back into discussion, along with a film many are dropping from their predictions.

Abigail Breslin - If she had been dropped here, a lot of doubt would have surrounded her buzz.

Aaron Eckhardt, Gretchen Mol, and Annette Bening - For similar reasons. They NEED buzz.

What!? - The Ones That Are Confusing

Leonardo Dicarpio - Lead for Blood Diamond and supporting for The Departed!? Category Confusion strikes again!

Aurora Borealis - Joshua Jackson and Donald Sutherland get nods for lead and supporting respectively. Is there anything here? The movie was well received by the critics, so I guess you never know.

Will Ferrell and Joseph Cross - Nice to get the critical praise, but it probably stops here for them, lest the globes shake things up.

Toni Collette - With all the hooplah about Breslin and Arkin, no one has been even close to predicting her in most top ten lists, let alone top five. Cool, but out of nowhere.

Where!? - The Ones That Are Missing

Will Smith - Huge buzz usually translates to letdowns a la Memoirs and it appears like Smith might be another one. Perhaps the performance is good enough to make an incredible trailer, but not a movie. But he will probably bounce back. We need more info!

Michael Sheen - Wow, this could hurt him. The movie belongs to Mirren as it is, and if he can't separate himself a little bit, then he could be forgotten.

Eddie Murphy - Surprising! Some prognosticators have Murphy taking home gold come Kodak Theater time, but he fails to deliver here. Could just be a blip in the radar, but I think supporting actor is WIDE open.

United 93 or WTC - They were not having the 9/11 films. Not even a little bit. This could be indicative of the future, but hopefully only for WTC, since United 93 is a vastly superior film than most in the running for the short list. cough Babel cough.

Shareeka Epps - This could have sent her buzz out of the house, but she fails to garner a nod here. Perhaps she's being Gyllanhaal'ed.

Adriana Barraza - Eeek! Many thought she was on the upswing for her powerhouse of a performance in Inarittu's ensemble, but the lack of a nomination here says otherwise.

Things are just getting interesting and I can't wait to see how this pans out.

Question To The Readers

I am getting kind of tired of the Oscar pundits of the web telling me what public opinion is, so I thought I would ask you guys a question directly. It seems like a more direct way to gauge what is and isn't popular or what does or does not have public backing. If this is successful, I will probably keep this up every Tuesday, and as the race continues the questions will get more and more specific. Let me know.

Question:

What is the one film or performance that is truly underrated?

ISA Nods.

Could be one of many "In honor of..." nods Robert Altman could receive. Happy to see recognition for The Painted Veil and A Guide To Recognizing.... Helps Little Miss Sunshine and Half Nelson the most though. Go Shareeka!


SPECIAL DISTINCTION AWARD
David Lynch and Laura Dern

BEST FEATURE
American Gun
The Dead Girl
Half Nelson
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan’s Labyrinth

BEST DIRECTOR
Robert Altman - A Prairie Home Companion
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine
Ryan Fleck - Half Nelson
Karen Moncrieff - The Dead Girl
Steven Soderbergh - Bubble

BEST FIRST FEATURE

Day Night Day Night
Man Push Cart
The Motel
Sweet Land
Wristcutters: A Love Story

BEST SCREENPLAY

Neil Burger - The Illusionist
Nicole Holofcener - Friends with Money
Ron Nyswaner - The Painted Veil
Jason Reitman - Thank You For Smoking
Jeff Stanzler - Sorry, Haters

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

Michael Arndt - Little Miss Sunshine
Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck - Half Nelson
Goran Dukic - Wristcutters: A Love Story
Dito Montiel - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints
Gabrielle Zevin - Conversations with Other Women

BEST FEMALE LEAD

Shareeka Epps - Half Nelson
Catherine O’Hara - For Your Consideration
Elizabeth Reaser - Sweet Land
Michelle Williams - Land of Plenty
Robin Wright Penn - Sorry, Haters

BEST MALE LEAD

Aaron Eckhart - Thank You For Smoking
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Edward Norton - The Painted Veil
Ahmad Razvi - Man Push Cart
Forest Whitaker - American Gun

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Melonie Diaz - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints
Marcia Gay Harden - American Gun
Mary Beth Hurt - The Dead Girl
Frances McDormand - Friends with Money
Amber Tamblyn - Stephanie Daley

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Raymond J. Barry - Steel City
Daniel Craig - Infamous
Paul Dano - Little Miss Sunshine
Channing Tatum - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arin Crumley - Four Eyed Monsters
Anthony Dod Mantle - Brothers of the Head
Guillermo Navarro - Pan’s Labyrinth
Aaron Platt - Wild Tigers I Have Known
Michael Simmonds - Man Push Cart

BEST DOCUMENTARY

A Lion in the House
My Country, My Country
The Road to Guantanamo
The Trials of Darryl Hunt
You’re Gonna Miss Me

BEST FOREIGN FILM

12:08 East of Bucharest (Romania)
The Blossoming of Maximo Oliveros (Philippines)
Chronicle of an Escape (Argentina)
Days of Glory (France/Morocco/Algeria/Belgium)
The Lives of Others (Germany)

Check out the full list here

Forgot To Mention...

Maggie Gyllenhaal as lead actress in Sherrybaby

and...

Ken Watanabe as lead actor in Letters From Iwo Jima


With Gyllenhaal's recent Stockholm win and the crazy buzz about Letters, consider these two very strong darkhorses for nominations and maybe more. But for now they remain in the FYC category.

Final Major Category Predicts

...At least until the precursors weigh in.

We have a little less than a month before the Globes announce their noms and I thought it would be nice to finish out the predicts of the top six categories (acting, director, picture) before the rush of awards come out. There will be people we don't expect, and people we do, but it should be interesting.

Picture

Dreamgirls - It's first official rave review came out. Hundreds to follow.
The Departed - Box office + Scorsese + Reviews = locked nom.
The Queen - It's this year's Capote but better. Nominate it.
Babel - I'm concerned about this one. Might be too "loved-it-or-hated-it" for a nom, but has strong buzz right now.
Little Miss Sunshine - The category is too depressing, we NEED this.

Director

Martin Scorsese - The Departed - See above + overdue = Winner.
Bill Condon - Dreamgirls - Film is too big not to give Condon the nod, but the win is another issue.
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Babel - Film may be divisive, but the directing is solid.
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima - NO for Flags, YES for Letters. Academy loves him.
Paul Greengrass - United 93 - Feels like he is still sort of buzzing, and might be the film's only chance.

Actor

Peter O'Toole - Venus - Due and raved. People love a comeback story.
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness - Everyone loves Smith, and the movie looks like feel good bait a la Finding Neverland
Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland - Buzz has faded, but it was strong enough to last him.
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson - Critic awards WILL love him, and is a MAJOR darkhorse to win if he has the right momentum with precursors.
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed - They better declare him lead soon, or Aaron Eckhardt and Matt Damon will take this spot.

Actress

Helen Mirren - The Queen - Yeah. There is no stopping her.
Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal - AMPAS loves her so much they would lick her shoes. Plus she plays creepy...and that works if done well.
Kate Winslet - Little Children - Buzz is gone, but will it come back when the film releases wider?
Penelope Cruz - Volver - Buzz has remained consistent and the only things holding her back are subtitles.
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada - Continues to reinvent herself, and AMPAS continues to reward her. She's in.

Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt - Babel - Big stars are rewarded when they actually act.
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls - Flashy role that no one else can offer in this race.
Michael Sheen - The Queen - Beautiful performance powerful enough not to get trampled by Mirren's talent. He kept up with her, which is impressive.
Jack Nicholson - The Departed - Umm...he was a lock after the first frame.
Ben Affleck - Hollywoodland - That's right. Write it down.

Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls - She filled the role's shoes according to early notices. This American Idolist is Not Going anywhere.
Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal - Previous winner with a high profile year and a performance in an acting-central film opposite Dench makes for a nomination.
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine - Let's hope HFPA doesn't screw things up by putting her in lead.
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel - Up and coming talent in a role so powerful she commands the film without a single word. A darkhorse to win.
Adriana Barraza - Babel - Represents the pure sentiment of the film. Powerful and painful. Brilliant.

There they are, and I would love to know what you think. COMMENT.

Supporting Updates

Supporting Acting noms are always a little bit tricky, and can be confusing as hell. You never know if Judi Dench can win for an eight-minute role, or if William Hurt will get even get nominated for an equally brief role. Damn the power of Judi Dench! This year is no different with Babel's multiple supporting possibilities and Dreamgirls's buzz for someone who has never acted in a major picture before. So here's the run-down, and excuse me for not being so elaborate as the leading categories. There are simply...too many actors. Excuse the Amadeus reference.

Supporting Actor:

Jack Nicholson The Departed
Eddie Murphy Dreamgirls
Alan Arkin Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley Little Children
Brad Pitt Babel

Here's the thing, the race is pretty open except for Mr. Nicholson. By switching to the supporting category, he almost locks himself into a nomination and possibly a trip to the podium.

Murphy's flashy character is exactly the kind supporting categories love to recognize, and AMPAS loves to nominate actors they once thought were going to be a phenomenal presence at the Kodak over and over again.

Alan Arkin stands the be the only man from Little Miss Sunshine to get nominated, despite equally brilliant performances from Carell and Kinnear. Never underestimate the power of a comeback story.

Jackie Earle Haley is my out-there-but-not-so-out-there-pick with his performance in Little Children. The role is baity as hell, and he is a child star coming into his talent all over again. Again, never underestimate a comeback.

Pitt is an interesting story. He is getting raves for a film that was once thought to be a critical darling, but stumbled out of the block. The question seems to be: will his performance overcome the unmet high expectations? I think so. He is present in the headlines, and that never hurts. Plus, he's pretty. Who doesn't want to see him gussied up come Oscar night?

Here are the little more far-fetched For Your Consideration-ers:

Michael Sheen The Queen
Ben Affleck Hollywoodland
James Cromwell The Queen (I am pulling for his beautiful performance over Sheen's)
Djimon Hounsou Blood Diamond
Stanley Tucci The Devil Wears Prada


Now for the ladies!!! Even more confusing. Ugh....

Abigail Breslin Little Miss Sunshine
Cate Blanchett Notes On A Scandal
Rinku Kinkuchi Babel
Vera Farmiga The Departed
Phyllis Sommerville Little Children

That's right. I am not predicting Jennifer Hudson! Until the movie is reviewed, or, you know, seen at all, I remain skeptical about the American Idol-er. But let's break it down now.

Abigail Breslin is the powerhouse backbone of the indie-hit Little Miss Sunshine and deserves to take home a statue just for having a powerful and commanding presence for a role that could have fallen flat as hell if anyone else played it. Yeah, even Dakota Fanning couldn't be that cute.

Blanchett has the fortune of starring opposite Oscar favorite Judi Dench, and the trailer is hot like fire too, which generates massive buzz. The role looks risky, conflicted and baity too. It doesn't hurt that she has an Oscar already, and the snubbed status for her nomination for Elizabeth (Stupid Gwen Paltrow).

Kinkuchi is storming onto the Oscar scene for her tragically beautiful portrayal of a deaf-mute in Babel. She's being called the stand out of the film, and in a movie with Pitt and Blanchett, that means a lot.

Farmiga probably won't get nominated, but she is the only female in what I believe is an Oscar Best Picture winner and she's so underrated. With a character that can be identified with, she delivers a performance that is easily the most human this year's race has seen. She is real, and reality should be recognized.

If Jackie Earle Haley is scary in Little Children then Phyllis Somerville is heartbreaking. After reading the book, she (not Winslet's character) is the one you feel for. The mother of a sex offender is a baity role to say the least, and if she doesn't get vast critic and guild precursor recognition, I will be shocked.

Rounding out the top ten:

Jennifer Hudson Dreamgirls (I had to cave a little bit)
Adriana Barraza Babel
Catherine O'Hara For Your Consideration
Carmen Maura Volver
Shareeka Epps Half Nelson

Changes in leading categories:

Actor stays the same pretty much, but I am putting Sacha Baron Cohen in for the hell of it.

For Actress, I hate to say that Benning has dropped from the race because critics panned the film like no other, and Judi Dench is simply too powerful to be ignored.

The Question of Dreamgirls, The Case for Borat

When trying to think of a topic for this week's column, I spent hours surfing the web for a semblance of importance concerning the Oscar race. The blogs all over the net are running dry, due to very slow couple of weeks. Until Borat roped in some 27 million in an under 1,000 theater count, and a staggering 96% RottenTomatoes rating (100% COTC), making it one of the best reviewed films of the year, falling in line with Oscar contenders The Queen, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine.

So does Oscar have anything to offer for Borat?

It seems to be the best screened film of the year, and the only internet buzzed movie that actually translated to the box office like Snakes On A Plane could not. Yet only David Poland of Movie City News was thinking that Sacha Baron Cohen could be considered for his acting.

The Academy has nominated before comedies, but usually only the high-brow type of comedy that Borat doesn't appear to be. You can bet this genre comedy will get ignored, despite its critical appraisal, satirical pointedness, and box office success.

But I find it interesting that a movie no one has seen, save 20 screened minutes to generate buzz, is seen as the far and away front-runner now that Flags Of Our Fathers stumbled. Dreamgirls has everything that Chicago had: social commentary, flashy numbers, fleshy characters, and an opportunity for stars in Hollywood to prove themselves.

The difference? Dreamgirls has it on paper. That's it. Certainly the case can be made that "clear frontrunners" in November tend to fail more than succeed. Shall we remember the intense Best Picture buzz for Memoirs Of A Geisha last year? Not to mention the fact that two "frontrunner" movies-from-Broadway have flopped in each of the last two years: The Producers and Phantom Of The Opera. Can't we wait until we see it, or hear anything from people who have seen it?

The flashy Tony-winner will start screening in the next few weeks, and we will begin to see the true colors of this film. It is my opinion that the success or failure of the film rides on Jennifer Hudson's shoulders. Effie steals the show, and if Hudson doesn't rock out, the film won't have the legs to carry it to a win, much less a nomination.

I'm not ready to put trust in a film that is relying on a sixth-place American Idoler to carry it. But I hope I'm wrong.

Another Leading Lady?

Last year, Ziyi Zhang could have been the first Asian to be nominated in the lead category for actresses for her role in Memoirs Of A Geisha but she fell short. This year, one of her co-stars, Gong Li, could snag a nod herself.

Sony Pictures Classic annouced that they are launching a campaign for Gong Li and director Zhang Yimou for their work on Curse Of The Golden Flower, paving the way for what could be major buzz for Gong Li, and the Academy's first Asian nomination in the category.

But with the likes of Mirren, Winslet, and Benning in the race, it will be an uphill battle for Gong Li to be honored in what is becoming a very close and competitive category.

Oscar Preview: Best Actress

Well, this is one of the more interesting categories right now, seeing as how the field has narrowed ridiculously fast. There are about ten lovely ladies who are definitely in the race as of now, which is a lot more than we can say about other categories (cough supporting cough). Lets take a look...in no particular order.

Annette Benning: Running With Scissors

The film has been critically assaulted as something as bad as Jackass 2, or the Grudge 2, or any film with the number 2 in it, but Benning somehow stays in the race. Her character is eccentric, interesting, and just plain crazy. And if American Beauty taught us anything it's that Benning infuses a human-side to crazy that keeps the character from being caricature. Despite the fact that Hilary Swank isn't in the race to beat Benning out this year, I think we can be safe to say she won't be credited with the coveted "Oscar Winner" pre-fix.

Penelope Cruz: Volver

This is an interesting one. Especially since Robert Benigni is the only person to win an Oscar with a non-English speaking role. However, Cruz has been lauded at film festivals and early reviews as being a pure revelation. Basically, any media outlet that could predict her for an Oscar nomination has, and will continue to. Cruz's roles in American mainstream movies like Blow or Gothika might give her enough exposure to AMPAS voters that they not only recognize her, but vote for her.

Helen Mirren: The Queen

The frontrunner and soon to be winner of critic award after critic award, Mirren is locked into the shortlist. Her delicate and withdrawn performance is not only a stunning model of powerful restraint, but is simply awe-inspiring. But the power of a performance isn't enough for a win if the film isn't equally as powerful (See: Benning, or 2005's Huffman). Mirren need not worry though. The Queen is not carried by Mirren. Mirren helps it along, but the supporting performances, writing, and directing are just as flawless. Everything is going Mirren's way right now.

Meryl Streep: The Devil Wears Prada

You can never count out Meryl can you? Almost the moment the 2005 ceremony ended, bloggers were predicting Streep, but not for this popcorn film. Many thought a supporting nod for A Prairie Home Companion would be her fourteenth, not the stunning turn as dragon-lady Miranda Priestly in this summer's surprise hit The Devil Wears Prada. Probably the only outstanding aspect in the film (except for Stanley Tucci and Emily Blunt), Streep carries the film with a power that is so frightening you can't help but laugh as a defense mechanism. She signed her name on the top five this year with that beautifully depressing make-up free, red-eyed scene near the end that is so memorable, and voters are sure not to forget an actress that continues to reinvent herself.

Kate Winslet: Little Children

When discussing actresses who reinvent themselves (as I just was), no one comes to mind as clearly and powerfully as Kate Winslet. Donning a selective attitude towards choosing her roles, Winslet has created an embedded craving for her performances, and she never fails to deliver. Being only thirty, she has four Oscar noms, and a fifth on the way. The buzz for her nuanced self-conscious deglam performance in Todd Field's Little Children started out strong, but has dropped a little bit as Mirren's performance went into wider release. Wait for Little children to release a bit wider in America, and more people will start talking. Never underestimate the love for Kate Winset.

This is an exceeding strong category this year, which was definitely needed after last year's lack luster leading category for the ladies. Rounding out the top ten with just as much skill are...

Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal
Cate Blanchett - The Good German
Sienna Miller - Factory Girl
Maggie Gyllenhaal - Sherrybaby
Renee Zelwegger - Miss Potter