Let It Begin...

I suppose I should jump back into the race of predicting, huh? The festivals have begun, Toronto has past, and a few individuals have seemingly locked their nominations already. Over the next few days I will update category by category, so let's start the madness...

BEST ACTOR:

Not necessarily as strong of a category as it has been in the past, but still showing a lot of promise. The players are old, new, and unexpected, showing that Oscar is never afraid to reward up-and-comers, comebacks, and regulars.

1. Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland.

After his touring of the festivals and early online reviews, it appears that nothing can stop Whitaker's turn as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin from being honored at the Kodak, possibly at the podium. It doesn't hurt that he is a Hollywood presence that has yet to be recognized by the Academy. We know how AMPAS loves to recognize respected under-the-radar character actors (cough Philip Seymour Hoffman cough). The film is being praised as the most important movie of the year, and will hold a lot of power come awards night.

2. Peter O'Toole - Venus

Ah, the comeback, how we love thee. Snubbed more times than Maria Bello and Paul Giamatti combined, O'Toole, one of the best actors to grace the silver screen, has never won an Oscar, but it seems he is at least on his way to another nomination. Nominations are something O'Toole is used to, but it would be nice to win after seven nominations and an Honorary Oscar. The performance is the only one to really contend with Whitaker right now.

3. Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness

Will Smith is loved, that much is obvious with the success of Hitch. But Will Smith acting with all his skill is astonishing. Smith renders a level of passion and heart to these roles that audiences live for. Just look at his previous Oscar nominated turn in Ali. His appearance in even the most mediocre of movies (I, Robot) brings audiences to the theatre in waves. The role looks baity, and heart-warming, and the fact that it might be the feel good movie of the year doesn't hurt. Looking forward to seeing this one.

4. Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson

Ryan Gosling exploded onto the scene with his critically acclaimed role in "The Believer" and kept "The Notebook" from being a tired and boring film. He has a charisma that makes him one of the most promising young actors today, and his performance in Half Nelson is no exception. Critics have been praising his work as the drug-addicted school teacher as being a performance of a lifetime. Perhaps Gosling is this year's Ledger: young, but powerful.

5. Matt Damon - The Good Shepherd

Ironically, I was debating between Damon in The Good Shepherd and Clooney in The Good German, but I don't think Clooney will get another year of nominations given his overexposure last year. Damon has had a mediocre post-win career, but has come back to the good graces of critics with The Bourne supremacy and The Departed. He seems to have great projects falling in line, and is due for an another acting nomination. The Good Shepherd is baity as all hell: government plots, the CIA, the "supporting wife character," Oscar pedigree cast (Baldwin, Pesci, De Niro, Jolie), and seems to have a good amount of buzz behind it. Damon needs to shine to pull this nomination off, but I think he can.

What out for these as well:

Jude Law - Breaking and Entering
Richard Gere - The Hoax
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed
Brad Pitt - Babel (Not sure about category yet)
George Clooney - The Good German
Patrick Wilson - Little Children
Robin Williams - Man Of The Year
Christian Bale - The Prestige (Please God!)
Nic Cage - WTC
Derek Luke - Catch A Fire
Ken Watanabe - Letters From Iwo Jima

Next Up: Actress

United 93 - A Balancing Act...A Good One Too

When trailers for Paul Greengrass's 9/11-pic "United 93" hit theaters around the nation, many were outraged that Hollywood had stooped low enough to exploit national tragedy for a summer action flicks and a quick buck. Few suspected the reality of the situation: that U-93 would receive the universal rave reviews it did, and would be considered the first film of 2006 to actually make a run for the podium.

Greengrass balances a fine line between tragedy exploitation and melodramatic fluff to create an honest and riveting account of the events of September 11th, 2001. The film not only centers on United flight 93, the only flight to not reach its target, but also the air-traffic control of the FAA, NORAD, and other airport control towers.

Greengrass spends the first hour of the film creating a tangible element of suspense. We know what is going to happen, so the events leading up to the takeover of the four planes are that much more effective. As subtle as the door of flight 93 locking shut, and as obvious as an air-traffic analyst discovery that multiple planes, rather than just one, have been hijacked, each shot opens old wounds and sends chills of recognition down more than a few spines.

With incredible integration of actual news footage, as the events unfold, the audience is left reliving the entire day, which can be a good and a bad thing. While some may not be completely ready for such a real depiction of such a devastating day, others may use the film as a subtle reminder of our nation's fallibility. Whether you see it now or later, I urge everyone to see it at one point. It is by far the most important movie of the year, despite the political nature of other 2006 movies (cough "V for Vendetta" cough).

"United 93" is the stuff of great humanity: fear, anger, confusion, bravery, honesty, love, and inspiration. The film can never be enjoyed because of its close attachment to such a morose day, but it should certainly be admired, revered, and honored.

The film will not earn any acting nominations except a possible SAG Ensemble Cast award. The films standout performances are not easily singled out because all are equally brilliant. The short phone conversations the passengers to family members deserve Oscar recognition by themselves, but not even the Academy would recognize such small performances.

The directing stands a significant chance of nomination. Greengrass chooses his hand-held, shaky camera work to add a sense of tension and reality. From the very first scene, we are not an audience watching a screen, but an audience standing in the room, office, cockpit, or cabin. His choice to use mostly unknown actors augments the feeling that this could have happened to any of us. Though his shaky camera work grows tiresome and dizzying in some scenes, it serves its purpose for the most part.

Expect possible nominations in some of the tech categories, screenplay, directing, and picture.

Greengrass' new piece-de-reality is the first major Oscar contender of the year. While early release dates have hindered the Oscar buzz for films and performances in the past, the success of last year's Best Pic "Crash" proves that great films are great films, no matter when they were released.

GRADE: A

PGA, Globes, and BAFTA oh my!

These past few days have been interesting to say the least. The Globes gave away their awards which were strange, and expected. The Globes are always a bit crazy. Today the PGA released that Brokeback Mountain took its top prize, which only cements its position as a clear frontrunner. PGA did the same with awarding Wallace and Gromit for Animated film. But lets break it down...

The Globes gave top honors to Brokeback Mountain (duh) and Walk The Line. WTL's award helps it into the fifth BP nomination which it is struggling to secure. It seems that WTL's buzz is fading fast, but the Globe helps to boost it chances. Winning for Best Actress is Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Huffman. Both actresses barely had any competition in their respective categories, which only points out that these two leading ladies are the only ones locked in for a nom. Best Actor was a no brainer as well. Hoffman and Phoenix took home the gold. While both had competition with Ledger and Daniels, the two overcame any challenges they might have had. Jeff Daniels had one chance to upset Phoenix to be a serious contender for the race, but his chances seem very unlikely. Ledger's only chance to set the stage for an upset in March is to win the last MAJOR precursor of the year: the SAG. Though unlikely, it will make things interesting. The Globes decided to mix things up with the Supporting categories instead. Giving the awards to Rachel Weisz and George Clooney, it seems that the HFPA were into giving awards to the contenders many had pegged for second. Clooney's Globe shows that Giamatti is hardly unbeatable and Michelle Williams is hurt seriously with this loss. The SAG could be her savior, but Amy Adams will be hard to beat.

The BAFTA nominees were announced. They were surprisingly stale with one exception: Brokeback Mountain didn't get all the most nominations, but rather, a British film did (surprise). The Constant Gardener had 10 nominations while BBM only had nine. However, TCG received nominations for BOTH Best Picture and Best British Picture. Had BBM been a British film, the two would probably be tied. In other news, Keira got snubbed again while Thandie Newton got a nomination that she SO deserves, I'm hoping Oscar listens. Rachel Weisz was placed in lead for actress, which doesn't hold too much weight.

Updates on predictions to the right. I am prediciting some upsets...so bare with me. These are my FINAL predictions. Nominees are announced in just over a week.

The Guilds Weigh In...

Well the SAG, DGA, PGA, and WGA, have all weighed in on what they think are the best films of the year. In each of their respective categories, the guilds locked nominees and mixed up others. Lets dive in...

Best Picture:
With nominations from all of the guilds, the year seems to belong entirely to Brokeback Mountain. Earning more Globes and Guild nominations than any other picture, it is the undisputed frontrunner. However, the guilds were very good to two small films that were in the "Honorable Mention" category: Crash and Capote. Each film rocketed forward into the top five, while others stumbled. Munich and King Kong are nearly dead in the Best Picture Best Director race. Spielberg managed to grab the DGA nom, but Kong missed on all accounts. With films like Match Point and The New World also getting dropped, the race is getting good.

Actor:
Hoffman, Ledger, Straitharn, and Phoenix all seem to be locked, but who will win the fifth spot. Russel Crowe sneaked into the fifth spot that seems to be the only one up for grabs, ahead of Terrence Howard. Crowe was all but dead in this category, but the fifth spot could be his to lose. Its a coiin flip between the two actors now.

Actress: Well, three spots are pretty locked down now. Huffman, Witherspoon, and Dench seem to be the only definites. Watts and Allen missed out on the Guild nominations while Ziyi Zhang is surprisingly receiving noms for both the Globes and the SAG. Charleze Theron seems to be consistent for her slightly less than Monster performance. Again, the last two spots could go to any of those four women. Don't forget if Bello is placed in the leadign category like the Globes did, same for Laura Linney.

Supporting Actor:
Hmmmm...another fifth spot quandry. Gyllenhaal, Clooney, Giamatti, Dillon, all seem to have locked their first career Oscar nominations, but who will take the fifth spot. Most people seem to believe that fifth spot will go to one of the other Crash men: Terrence Howard or Don Chaedle who received an out of nowhere nom for the SAG. Many other might throw in a career nom for Frank Langella or possibly the beautiful and haunting cameo William Hurt delivered in A history of Violence

Supporting Actress:
What to do what to do? What many considered the weakest category of the year has suddenly become the most confusing. There are many possibilties here, but no real front runner. Michelle Williams, Rachel Weisz, and possibly Maria Bello might have their locks in, but other actresses are hot on their trail. Gong Li, Frances McDormand, Amy Adams, and Catherine Keener are all threatening. Laura Linney could pull a surprise nom out of the blue as well. This is getting good.

The Guilds certainly helped define the race, but also mudled it up a bit. Updated predictions are reflected on the right.

Spielberg Crafts Thriller Of The Year, But It's Not Enough

REVIEW: Munich

Encountering more Oscar buzz than almost any other film this year, Steven Spielberg's "Munich" was heavily anticipated, to say the least. Most interesting, was the choice to not campaign this film for the Oscars, which of course only created more buzz and mystery to its existence. After it's release, the film, unlike others (Memoirs of a Geisha), holds up to its buzz. Though not Best Picture worthy, it is entirely worthy of a nomination.

Centering on the events that occurred after the attacks and assassinations of the Israeli Olympic team of 1972, Tony Kushner(Angels In America), pens one of the most sophisticated thrillers of our time. Including conversations that, though they took place in 1972, ring with a certain truth today. Reminding us that not much has changed. The screenplay has its breathtaking moments, and should be rewarded accordingly.

Onto the acting. Eric Bana, though not being recognized by any major precursor award has still been looked at as a major contender for the Best Actor category. Portraying Avner, the leader of the five men sent to kill eleven men that had a hand in planning the attacks at the Olympics, Bana will unfortunately be overlooked. Though his performance transcends the average movie's lead, his role will probably lead him to a second tier nomination. However, don't let this prediction deceive you. He could very likely have to get used to having "Academy Award Nominee" in front of his name due to the last thirty minutes of the film. Bana takes the dark twist in the film as an opportunity to bolster his character and performance, which tips me off to what was wrong with the first 2 and a half hours: a lack of substance. Though the character is supposed to have underlying father issues that ultimately lead him to take the job, Bana never seemed to add that layer. Perhaps because the script itself never drastically pointed out that character trait. However, near the climax of the film and Avner's return home, Bana slops on a whole new layer of subtext, continuously reminding us of how the past year has haunted him and affects his daily life. This is exemplified in a heart breaking scene where Avner rummages through his house looking, desperately, for anything that might literally blow up in his face. Though Bana portrays a beautiful post-assassination Avner, the character is not difficult enough or solidly performed to earn a nomination in this very difficult category.

The film, however, belongs to the ladies. Though their character's time on film are few and far between, they demand every minute they have on it, a la Judi Dench in Shakespeare In Love. Marie-Josee Croze portrays a powerful yet tender mother who simply wants her husband back. Reminding us of wives left at home during war time, her husband is at war, but she has no one to sympathize with. Stranded in New York with a new born and no husband, Croze does everything right. When Avner returns home, she does not break down in tears because she is a very strong-willed woman. Expressing concern for her haunted husband, we see her heart-break and her undying love for the man she used to know. The second female of the film award goes to the very surprising performance of Lynn Cohen and her portrayal of Golda Meir, the Israeli Prime Minister. Golda Meir, historically known as the mother of Israel, is strong and unique. We see her grief over the loss of her fellow citizens and also, in one particular scene, the conflict of her personal feelings for family (her sister) when confronted with the funeral of the athletes. Dressed, literally, in clothes fit for a grandmother, this small lady still commands the attention and respect of every man in a scene with her. Unfortunately, these two performances are extremely brief, but you never know. Perhaps the Academy will smile on these under-dog performances...They have before.

Steven Spielberg does a masterful job with this film. Reminding us of Clint Eastwood's work in Million Dollar Baby, he directs the film with an everchanging scope. Changing lighting and shots to become more dramatic and dark as the film leaves its light hearted side in the dusk of multiple explosions. Though the film drags a bit in the middle, the noteworthy directing is exemplified by his choices involving the exposition of the massacre and the films final thirty minutes. It is as if Spielberg just decided to make a brilliant film, rather than just a good one. Unfortunately, it is a little too little too late. Because the film drags on a bit in the middle, leaving many wondering why the film had to be three hours, Munich lacks some of the power of other contenders like Brokeback Mountain and Good Night and Good Luck, but it will certainly be in the running.

RATING: A-

"Walk The Line" Feels All Too Familiar

REVIEW: Walk The Line

This has obviously been a long time coming seeing as how the movie came out a little while ago, but better late then never.

The movie centers around the life and drama of the acclaimed singer/songwriter Johnny Cash. Struggling through a multitude of problems, Walk The Line exposes almost every trouble that Johnny Cash must have gone through. Echoing in the wake of last years Ray, WTL has a similar feel, including all too familiar scenes from the singer's childhood life on a farm, drug abuse, affairs, and much much more!

While this movie may differ from the type of music being sung, this seems to be the carbon copy of last year's Ray. So naturally, WTL expresses similar upsides, and drawbacks. Like Ray, WTL provides for amazing performances in almost all the characters.

Mr. Phoenix plays Johnny Cash with ease and brilliance, making sure that each moment of silent reflection is as powerful as his spoken ones. In some of Cash's more down-trodden of experiences, phoenix truly shines, showing that the power of a scene does not have to be compassion and sympathy for a character, but can be equally effective with the reaction of pity and sorrow. We know the potential of Cash, and it literally hurts us to see him stumbling around amidst the judgment of his supposed peers. Successfully, phoenix so brilliantly portrays Cash's downfall, that the subsequent upward climb feels all the better to the viewer. Phoenix will most likely, like Jaime Foxx, receive his second Academy Award nomination.

Reese Witherspoon is the other star of this movie. In some scenes, she even outperforms her co-star. Playing with June Carter's constructed hilarity, while simultaneously embracing her innocence and blind love, Reese Witherspoon is nothing more than a joy to watch. The brilliance of the performance comes with the complexity of June Carter's defense mechanisms. She sees her true love on a downward spiral and tries to protect herself from the pain she can only assume will hit her head on. The true brilliance of the performance however, comes not with Witherspoon's ability to show these defense mechanisms, but her ability to show how fragile they are. We see her trying to distance herself, but at the same time, it so apparent that the steps she is taking to keep herself from being involved with Cash are seemingly futile. In the film's pinnacle scene (involving a proposal on stage), we see those carefully constructed walls crumble...And we couldn't be happier. Reese Witherspoon, snubbed for her performance in Election, will surely get her first nomination for Best Actress. Along with Felicity Huffman, Reese Witherspoon is one of the category's only locks.

Unfortunately, the talent and performance of the individual actors far outdoes the quality of the film, a problem many had with Ray. WTL is a brilliant character movie, but never ventures away from its "Made For TV" feel. With awkward editing and a few second-too-long closeups, the movie has its flaws. We, as viewers, can watch and appreciate the characters and their interactions, but never truly become involved with the film. WTL lacks the quality that truly affects the viewer, a quality that Million Dollar Baby easily possessed. While this film may get its nomination for Best Picture, it will suffer the same fate as Ray and The Aviator, a worthy nomination and a reputation for being known as incredibly acted bio-pics.

RATING: B+

The Predictions for the end of December are as follows. They don't represent the changes that will come with The SAG Award noms, the guilds, and the Golden Globe results.

Picture:
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night And Good Luck
3. Munich
4. Walk The Line
5. King Kong
Honorable Mention: A History of Violence, Match Point, Cinderella Man

Director:
1. Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
2. Steven Speilberg - Munich
3. George Clooney - GNGL
4: Peter Jackson - King Kong
5: David Cronenberg - AHOV
HM: Bennett Miller, Woody Allen

Actor:
1. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
2. Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
3. Jaoquin Pheonix - Walk The Line
4. David Straitharn - GNGL
5. Jeff Daniels - The Squid And The Whale
HM: Viggo Mortenson, Terrence Howard

Actress:
1. Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
2. Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line
3. Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger
4. Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice
5. Naomi Watts - King Kong
HM: Judi Dench, Charlize Theron, Laura Linney

Supporting Actor:
1. Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
2. Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
3. Matt Dillon - Crash
4. George Clooney - Syriana
5. Kevin Costner - The Upside of Anger
HM: William Hurt, Bob Hoskins

Supporting Actress:
1. Maria Bello - A History of Violence
2. Scarlett Johansson - Match Point
3. Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
4. Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardner
5. Amy Adams - Junebug
HM: Laura Linney, Diane Keaton

Comment: While I am fairly certain that Laura Linney will capture a nomination for her work in The Squid And The Whale, I am not entirely sure which way she is being campaigned: Supporting, or Lead. Which is why she is only an Honorable Mention as of now

Welcome to the beginning of what I hope will become an enjoyable and informational cite. The Opened Envelope aims to predict and analyze the latest Oscar race. This includes predictions, precursor awards, category analysis and movie reviews. All of which are soon to come.

Next post will include detailed predictions for each major category.

Hope you enjoy!