Question To The Readers

I am getting kind of tired of the Oscar pundits of the web telling me what public opinion is, so I thought I would ask you guys a question directly. It seems like a more direct way to gauge what is and isn't popular or what does or does not have public backing. If this is successful, I will probably keep this up every Tuesday, and as the race continues the questions will get more and more specific. Let me know.

Question:

What is the one film or performance that is truly underrated?

ISA Nods.

Could be one of many "In honor of..." nods Robert Altman could receive. Happy to see recognition for The Painted Veil and A Guide To Recognizing.... Helps Little Miss Sunshine and Half Nelson the most though. Go Shareeka!


SPECIAL DISTINCTION AWARD
David Lynch and Laura Dern

BEST FEATURE
American Gun
The Dead Girl
Half Nelson
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan’s Labyrinth

BEST DIRECTOR
Robert Altman - A Prairie Home Companion
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine
Ryan Fleck - Half Nelson
Karen Moncrieff - The Dead Girl
Steven Soderbergh - Bubble

BEST FIRST FEATURE

Day Night Day Night
Man Push Cart
The Motel
Sweet Land
Wristcutters: A Love Story

BEST SCREENPLAY

Neil Burger - The Illusionist
Nicole Holofcener - Friends with Money
Ron Nyswaner - The Painted Veil
Jason Reitman - Thank You For Smoking
Jeff Stanzler - Sorry, Haters

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

Michael Arndt - Little Miss Sunshine
Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck - Half Nelson
Goran Dukic - Wristcutters: A Love Story
Dito Montiel - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints
Gabrielle Zevin - Conversations with Other Women

BEST FEMALE LEAD

Shareeka Epps - Half Nelson
Catherine O’Hara - For Your Consideration
Elizabeth Reaser - Sweet Land
Michelle Williams - Land of Plenty
Robin Wright Penn - Sorry, Haters

BEST MALE LEAD

Aaron Eckhart - Thank You For Smoking
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Edward Norton - The Painted Veil
Ahmad Razvi - Man Push Cart
Forest Whitaker - American Gun

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Melonie Diaz - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints
Marcia Gay Harden - American Gun
Mary Beth Hurt - The Dead Girl
Frances McDormand - Friends with Money
Amber Tamblyn - Stephanie Daley

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Raymond J. Barry - Steel City
Daniel Craig - Infamous
Paul Dano - Little Miss Sunshine
Channing Tatum - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arin Crumley - Four Eyed Monsters
Anthony Dod Mantle - Brothers of the Head
Guillermo Navarro - Pan’s Labyrinth
Aaron Platt - Wild Tigers I Have Known
Michael Simmonds - Man Push Cart

BEST DOCUMENTARY

A Lion in the House
My Country, My Country
The Road to Guantanamo
The Trials of Darryl Hunt
You’re Gonna Miss Me

BEST FOREIGN FILM

12:08 East of Bucharest (Romania)
The Blossoming of Maximo Oliveros (Philippines)
Chronicle of an Escape (Argentina)
Days of Glory (France/Morocco/Algeria/Belgium)
The Lives of Others (Germany)

Check out the full list here

Forgot To Mention...

Maggie Gyllenhaal as lead actress in Sherrybaby

and...

Ken Watanabe as lead actor in Letters From Iwo Jima


With Gyllenhaal's recent Stockholm win and the crazy buzz about Letters, consider these two very strong darkhorses for nominations and maybe more. But for now they remain in the FYC category.

Final Major Category Predicts

...At least until the precursors weigh in.

We have a little less than a month before the Globes announce their noms and I thought it would be nice to finish out the predicts of the top six categories (acting, director, picture) before the rush of awards come out. There will be people we don't expect, and people we do, but it should be interesting.

Picture

Dreamgirls - It's first official rave review came out. Hundreds to follow.
The Departed - Box office + Scorsese + Reviews = locked nom.
The Queen - It's this year's Capote but better. Nominate it.
Babel - I'm concerned about this one. Might be too "loved-it-or-hated-it" for a nom, but has strong buzz right now.
Little Miss Sunshine - The category is too depressing, we NEED this.

Director

Martin Scorsese - The Departed - See above + overdue = Winner.
Bill Condon - Dreamgirls - Film is too big not to give Condon the nod, but the win is another issue.
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Babel - Film may be divisive, but the directing is solid.
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima - NO for Flags, YES for Letters. Academy loves him.
Paul Greengrass - United 93 - Feels like he is still sort of buzzing, and might be the film's only chance.

Actor

Peter O'Toole - Venus - Due and raved. People love a comeback story.
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness - Everyone loves Smith, and the movie looks like feel good bait a la Finding Neverland
Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland - Buzz has faded, but it was strong enough to last him.
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson - Critic awards WILL love him, and is a MAJOR darkhorse to win if he has the right momentum with precursors.
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed - They better declare him lead soon, or Aaron Eckhardt and Matt Damon will take this spot.

Actress

Helen Mirren - The Queen - Yeah. There is no stopping her.
Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal - AMPAS loves her so much they would lick her shoes. Plus she plays creepy...and that works if done well.
Kate Winslet - Little Children - Buzz is gone, but will it come back when the film releases wider?
Penelope Cruz - Volver - Buzz has remained consistent and the only things holding her back are subtitles.
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada - Continues to reinvent herself, and AMPAS continues to reward her. She's in.

Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt - Babel - Big stars are rewarded when they actually act.
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls - Flashy role that no one else can offer in this race.
Michael Sheen - The Queen - Beautiful performance powerful enough not to get trampled by Mirren's talent. He kept up with her, which is impressive.
Jack Nicholson - The Departed - Umm...he was a lock after the first frame.
Ben Affleck - Hollywoodland - That's right. Write it down.

Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls - She filled the role's shoes according to early notices. This American Idolist is Not Going anywhere.
Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal - Previous winner with a high profile year and a performance in an acting-central film opposite Dench makes for a nomination.
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine - Let's hope HFPA doesn't screw things up by putting her in lead.
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel - Up and coming talent in a role so powerful she commands the film without a single word. A darkhorse to win.
Adriana Barraza - Babel - Represents the pure sentiment of the film. Powerful and painful. Brilliant.

There they are, and I would love to know what you think. COMMENT.

Supporting Updates

Supporting Acting noms are always a little bit tricky, and can be confusing as hell. You never know if Judi Dench can win for an eight-minute role, or if William Hurt will get even get nominated for an equally brief role. Damn the power of Judi Dench! This year is no different with Babel's multiple supporting possibilities and Dreamgirls's buzz for someone who has never acted in a major picture before. So here's the run-down, and excuse me for not being so elaborate as the leading categories. There are simply...too many actors. Excuse the Amadeus reference.

Supporting Actor:

Jack Nicholson The Departed
Eddie Murphy Dreamgirls
Alan Arkin Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley Little Children
Brad Pitt Babel

Here's the thing, the race is pretty open except for Mr. Nicholson. By switching to the supporting category, he almost locks himself into a nomination and possibly a trip to the podium.

Murphy's flashy character is exactly the kind supporting categories love to recognize, and AMPAS loves to nominate actors they once thought were going to be a phenomenal presence at the Kodak over and over again.

Alan Arkin stands the be the only man from Little Miss Sunshine to get nominated, despite equally brilliant performances from Carell and Kinnear. Never underestimate the power of a comeback story.

Jackie Earle Haley is my out-there-but-not-so-out-there-pick with his performance in Little Children. The role is baity as hell, and he is a child star coming into his talent all over again. Again, never underestimate a comeback.

Pitt is an interesting story. He is getting raves for a film that was once thought to be a critical darling, but stumbled out of the block. The question seems to be: will his performance overcome the unmet high expectations? I think so. He is present in the headlines, and that never hurts. Plus, he's pretty. Who doesn't want to see him gussied up come Oscar night?

Here are the little more far-fetched For Your Consideration-ers:

Michael Sheen The Queen
Ben Affleck Hollywoodland
James Cromwell The Queen (I am pulling for his beautiful performance over Sheen's)
Djimon Hounsou Blood Diamond
Stanley Tucci The Devil Wears Prada


Now for the ladies!!! Even more confusing. Ugh....

Abigail Breslin Little Miss Sunshine
Cate Blanchett Notes On A Scandal
Rinku Kinkuchi Babel
Vera Farmiga The Departed
Phyllis Sommerville Little Children

That's right. I am not predicting Jennifer Hudson! Until the movie is reviewed, or, you know, seen at all, I remain skeptical about the American Idol-er. But let's break it down now.

Abigail Breslin is the powerhouse backbone of the indie-hit Little Miss Sunshine and deserves to take home a statue just for having a powerful and commanding presence for a role that could have fallen flat as hell if anyone else played it. Yeah, even Dakota Fanning couldn't be that cute.

Blanchett has the fortune of starring opposite Oscar favorite Judi Dench, and the trailer is hot like fire too, which generates massive buzz. The role looks risky, conflicted and baity too. It doesn't hurt that she has an Oscar already, and the snubbed status for her nomination for Elizabeth (Stupid Gwen Paltrow).

Kinkuchi is storming onto the Oscar scene for her tragically beautiful portrayal of a deaf-mute in Babel. She's being called the stand out of the film, and in a movie with Pitt and Blanchett, that means a lot.

Farmiga probably won't get nominated, but she is the only female in what I believe is an Oscar Best Picture winner and she's so underrated. With a character that can be identified with, she delivers a performance that is easily the most human this year's race has seen. She is real, and reality should be recognized.

If Jackie Earle Haley is scary in Little Children then Phyllis Somerville is heartbreaking. After reading the book, she (not Winslet's character) is the one you feel for. The mother of a sex offender is a baity role to say the least, and if she doesn't get vast critic and guild precursor recognition, I will be shocked.

Rounding out the top ten:

Jennifer Hudson Dreamgirls (I had to cave a little bit)
Adriana Barraza Babel
Catherine O'Hara For Your Consideration
Carmen Maura Volver
Shareeka Epps Half Nelson

Changes in leading categories:

Actor stays the same pretty much, but I am putting Sacha Baron Cohen in for the hell of it.

For Actress, I hate to say that Benning has dropped from the race because critics panned the film like no other, and Judi Dench is simply too powerful to be ignored.

The Question of Dreamgirls, The Case for Borat

When trying to think of a topic for this week's column, I spent hours surfing the web for a semblance of importance concerning the Oscar race. The blogs all over the net are running dry, due to very slow couple of weeks. Until Borat roped in some 27 million in an under 1,000 theater count, and a staggering 96% RottenTomatoes rating (100% COTC), making it one of the best reviewed films of the year, falling in line with Oscar contenders The Queen, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine.

So does Oscar have anything to offer for Borat?

It seems to be the best screened film of the year, and the only internet buzzed movie that actually translated to the box office like Snakes On A Plane could not. Yet only David Poland of Movie City News was thinking that Sacha Baron Cohen could be considered for his acting.

The Academy has nominated before comedies, but usually only the high-brow type of comedy that Borat doesn't appear to be. You can bet this genre comedy will get ignored, despite its critical appraisal, satirical pointedness, and box office success.

But I find it interesting that a movie no one has seen, save 20 screened minutes to generate buzz, is seen as the far and away front-runner now that Flags Of Our Fathers stumbled. Dreamgirls has everything that Chicago had: social commentary, flashy numbers, fleshy characters, and an opportunity for stars in Hollywood to prove themselves.

The difference? Dreamgirls has it on paper. That's it. Certainly the case can be made that "clear frontrunners" in November tend to fail more than succeed. Shall we remember the intense Best Picture buzz for Memoirs Of A Geisha last year? Not to mention the fact that two "frontrunner" movies-from-Broadway have flopped in each of the last two years: The Producers and Phantom Of The Opera. Can't we wait until we see it, or hear anything from people who have seen it?

The flashy Tony-winner will start screening in the next few weeks, and we will begin to see the true colors of this film. It is my opinion that the success or failure of the film rides on Jennifer Hudson's shoulders. Effie steals the show, and if Hudson doesn't rock out, the film won't have the legs to carry it to a win, much less a nomination.

I'm not ready to put trust in a film that is relying on a sixth-place American Idoler to carry it. But I hope I'm wrong.

Another Leading Lady?

Last year, Ziyi Zhang could have been the first Asian to be nominated in the lead category for actresses for her role in Memoirs Of A Geisha but she fell short. This year, one of her co-stars, Gong Li, could snag a nod herself.

Sony Pictures Classic annouced that they are launching a campaign for Gong Li and director Zhang Yimou for their work on Curse Of The Golden Flower, paving the way for what could be major buzz for Gong Li, and the Academy's first Asian nomination in the category.

But with the likes of Mirren, Winslet, and Benning in the race, it will be an uphill battle for Gong Li to be honored in what is becoming a very close and competitive category.

Oscar Preview: Best Actress

Well, this is one of the more interesting categories right now, seeing as how the field has narrowed ridiculously fast. There are about ten lovely ladies who are definitely in the race as of now, which is a lot more than we can say about other categories (cough supporting cough). Lets take a look...in no particular order.

Annette Benning: Running With Scissors

The film has been critically assaulted as something as bad as Jackass 2, or the Grudge 2, or any film with the number 2 in it, but Benning somehow stays in the race. Her character is eccentric, interesting, and just plain crazy. And if American Beauty taught us anything it's that Benning infuses a human-side to crazy that keeps the character from being caricature. Despite the fact that Hilary Swank isn't in the race to beat Benning out this year, I think we can be safe to say she won't be credited with the coveted "Oscar Winner" pre-fix.

Penelope Cruz: Volver

This is an interesting one. Especially since Robert Benigni is the only person to win an Oscar with a non-English speaking role. However, Cruz has been lauded at film festivals and early reviews as being a pure revelation. Basically, any media outlet that could predict her for an Oscar nomination has, and will continue to. Cruz's roles in American mainstream movies like Blow or Gothika might give her enough exposure to AMPAS voters that they not only recognize her, but vote for her.

Helen Mirren: The Queen

The frontrunner and soon to be winner of critic award after critic award, Mirren is locked into the shortlist. Her delicate and withdrawn performance is not only a stunning model of powerful restraint, but is simply awe-inspiring. But the power of a performance isn't enough for a win if the film isn't equally as powerful (See: Benning, or 2005's Huffman). Mirren need not worry though. The Queen is not carried by Mirren. Mirren helps it along, but the supporting performances, writing, and directing are just as flawless. Everything is going Mirren's way right now.

Meryl Streep: The Devil Wears Prada

You can never count out Meryl can you? Almost the moment the 2005 ceremony ended, bloggers were predicting Streep, but not for this popcorn film. Many thought a supporting nod for A Prairie Home Companion would be her fourteenth, not the stunning turn as dragon-lady Miranda Priestly in this summer's surprise hit The Devil Wears Prada. Probably the only outstanding aspect in the film (except for Stanley Tucci and Emily Blunt), Streep carries the film with a power that is so frightening you can't help but laugh as a defense mechanism. She signed her name on the top five this year with that beautifully depressing make-up free, red-eyed scene near the end that is so memorable, and voters are sure not to forget an actress that continues to reinvent herself.

Kate Winslet: Little Children

When discussing actresses who reinvent themselves (as I just was), no one comes to mind as clearly and powerfully as Kate Winslet. Donning a selective attitude towards choosing her roles, Winslet has created an embedded craving for her performances, and she never fails to deliver. Being only thirty, she has four Oscar noms, and a fifth on the way. The buzz for her nuanced self-conscious deglam performance in Todd Field's Little Children started out strong, but has dropped a little bit as Mirren's performance went into wider release. Wait for Little children to release a bit wider in America, and more people will start talking. Never underestimate the love for Kate Winset.

This is an exceeding strong category this year, which was definitely needed after last year's lack luster leading category for the ladies. Rounding out the top ten with just as much skill are...

Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal
Cate Blanchett - The Good German
Sienna Miller - Factory Girl
Maggie Gyllenhaal - Sherrybaby
Renee Zelwegger - Miss Potter

Let It Begin...

I suppose I should jump back into the race of predicting, huh? The festivals have begun, Toronto has past, and a few individuals have seemingly locked their nominations already. Over the next few days I will update category by category, so let's start the madness...

BEST ACTOR:

Not necessarily as strong of a category as it has been in the past, but still showing a lot of promise. The players are old, new, and unexpected, showing that Oscar is never afraid to reward up-and-comers, comebacks, and regulars.

1. Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland.

After his touring of the festivals and early online reviews, it appears that nothing can stop Whitaker's turn as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin from being honored at the Kodak, possibly at the podium. It doesn't hurt that he is a Hollywood presence that has yet to be recognized by the Academy. We know how AMPAS loves to recognize respected under-the-radar character actors (cough Philip Seymour Hoffman cough). The film is being praised as the most important movie of the year, and will hold a lot of power come awards night.

2. Peter O'Toole - Venus

Ah, the comeback, how we love thee. Snubbed more times than Maria Bello and Paul Giamatti combined, O'Toole, one of the best actors to grace the silver screen, has never won an Oscar, but it seems he is at least on his way to another nomination. Nominations are something O'Toole is used to, but it would be nice to win after seven nominations and an Honorary Oscar. The performance is the only one to really contend with Whitaker right now.

3. Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness

Will Smith is loved, that much is obvious with the success of Hitch. But Will Smith acting with all his skill is astonishing. Smith renders a level of passion and heart to these roles that audiences live for. Just look at his previous Oscar nominated turn in Ali. His appearance in even the most mediocre of movies (I, Robot) brings audiences to the theatre in waves. The role looks baity, and heart-warming, and the fact that it might be the feel good movie of the year doesn't hurt. Looking forward to seeing this one.

4. Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson

Ryan Gosling exploded onto the scene with his critically acclaimed role in "The Believer" and kept "The Notebook" from being a tired and boring film. He has a charisma that makes him one of the most promising young actors today, and his performance in Half Nelson is no exception. Critics have been praising his work as the drug-addicted school teacher as being a performance of a lifetime. Perhaps Gosling is this year's Ledger: young, but powerful.

5. Matt Damon - The Good Shepherd

Ironically, I was debating between Damon in The Good Shepherd and Clooney in The Good German, but I don't think Clooney will get another year of nominations given his overexposure last year. Damon has had a mediocre post-win career, but has come back to the good graces of critics with The Bourne supremacy and The Departed. He seems to have great projects falling in line, and is due for an another acting nomination. The Good Shepherd is baity as all hell: government plots, the CIA, the "supporting wife character," Oscar pedigree cast (Baldwin, Pesci, De Niro, Jolie), and seems to have a good amount of buzz behind it. Damon needs to shine to pull this nomination off, but I think he can.

What out for these as well:

Jude Law - Breaking and Entering
Richard Gere - The Hoax
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed
Brad Pitt - Babel (Not sure about category yet)
George Clooney - The Good German
Patrick Wilson - Little Children
Robin Williams - Man Of The Year
Christian Bale - The Prestige (Please God!)
Nic Cage - WTC
Derek Luke - Catch A Fire
Ken Watanabe - Letters From Iwo Jima

Next Up: Actress

United 93 - A Balancing Act...A Good One Too

When trailers for Paul Greengrass's 9/11-pic "United 93" hit theaters around the nation, many were outraged that Hollywood had stooped low enough to exploit national tragedy for a summer action flicks and a quick buck. Few suspected the reality of the situation: that U-93 would receive the universal rave reviews it did, and would be considered the first film of 2006 to actually make a run for the podium.

Greengrass balances a fine line between tragedy exploitation and melodramatic fluff to create an honest and riveting account of the events of September 11th, 2001. The film not only centers on United flight 93, the only flight to not reach its target, but also the air-traffic control of the FAA, NORAD, and other airport control towers.

Greengrass spends the first hour of the film creating a tangible element of suspense. We know what is going to happen, so the events leading up to the takeover of the four planes are that much more effective. As subtle as the door of flight 93 locking shut, and as obvious as an air-traffic analyst discovery that multiple planes, rather than just one, have been hijacked, each shot opens old wounds and sends chills of recognition down more than a few spines.

With incredible integration of actual news footage, as the events unfold, the audience is left reliving the entire day, which can be a good and a bad thing. While some may not be completely ready for such a real depiction of such a devastating day, others may use the film as a subtle reminder of our nation's fallibility. Whether you see it now or later, I urge everyone to see it at one point. It is by far the most important movie of the year, despite the political nature of other 2006 movies (cough "V for Vendetta" cough).

"United 93" is the stuff of great humanity: fear, anger, confusion, bravery, honesty, love, and inspiration. The film can never be enjoyed because of its close attachment to such a morose day, but it should certainly be admired, revered, and honored.

The film will not earn any acting nominations except a possible SAG Ensemble Cast award. The films standout performances are not easily singled out because all are equally brilliant. The short phone conversations the passengers to family members deserve Oscar recognition by themselves, but not even the Academy would recognize such small performances.

The directing stands a significant chance of nomination. Greengrass chooses his hand-held, shaky camera work to add a sense of tension and reality. From the very first scene, we are not an audience watching a screen, but an audience standing in the room, office, cockpit, or cabin. His choice to use mostly unknown actors augments the feeling that this could have happened to any of us. Though his shaky camera work grows tiresome and dizzying in some scenes, it serves its purpose for the most part.

Expect possible nominations in some of the tech categories, screenplay, directing, and picture.

Greengrass' new piece-de-reality is the first major Oscar contender of the year. While early release dates have hindered the Oscar buzz for films and performances in the past, the success of last year's Best Pic "Crash" proves that great films are great films, no matter when they were released.

GRADE: A

PGA, Globes, and BAFTA oh my!

These past few days have been interesting to say the least. The Globes gave away their awards which were strange, and expected. The Globes are always a bit crazy. Today the PGA released that Brokeback Mountain took its top prize, which only cements its position as a clear frontrunner. PGA did the same with awarding Wallace and Gromit for Animated film. But lets break it down...

The Globes gave top honors to Brokeback Mountain (duh) and Walk The Line. WTL's award helps it into the fifth BP nomination which it is struggling to secure. It seems that WTL's buzz is fading fast, but the Globe helps to boost it chances. Winning for Best Actress is Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Huffman. Both actresses barely had any competition in their respective categories, which only points out that these two leading ladies are the only ones locked in for a nom. Best Actor was a no brainer as well. Hoffman and Phoenix took home the gold. While both had competition with Ledger and Daniels, the two overcame any challenges they might have had. Jeff Daniels had one chance to upset Phoenix to be a serious contender for the race, but his chances seem very unlikely. Ledger's only chance to set the stage for an upset in March is to win the last MAJOR precursor of the year: the SAG. Though unlikely, it will make things interesting. The Globes decided to mix things up with the Supporting categories instead. Giving the awards to Rachel Weisz and George Clooney, it seems that the HFPA were into giving awards to the contenders many had pegged for second. Clooney's Globe shows that Giamatti is hardly unbeatable and Michelle Williams is hurt seriously with this loss. The SAG could be her savior, but Amy Adams will be hard to beat.

The BAFTA nominees were announced. They were surprisingly stale with one exception: Brokeback Mountain didn't get all the most nominations, but rather, a British film did (surprise). The Constant Gardener had 10 nominations while BBM only had nine. However, TCG received nominations for BOTH Best Picture and Best British Picture. Had BBM been a British film, the two would probably be tied. In other news, Keira got snubbed again while Thandie Newton got a nomination that she SO deserves, I'm hoping Oscar listens. Rachel Weisz was placed in lead for actress, which doesn't hold too much weight.

Updates on predictions to the right. I am prediciting some upsets...so bare with me. These are my FINAL predictions. Nominees are announced in just over a week.

The Guilds Weigh In...

Well the SAG, DGA, PGA, and WGA, have all weighed in on what they think are the best films of the year. In each of their respective categories, the guilds locked nominees and mixed up others. Lets dive in...

Best Picture:
With nominations from all of the guilds, the year seems to belong entirely to Brokeback Mountain. Earning more Globes and Guild nominations than any other picture, it is the undisputed frontrunner. However, the guilds were very good to two small films that were in the "Honorable Mention" category: Crash and Capote. Each film rocketed forward into the top five, while others stumbled. Munich and King Kong are nearly dead in the Best Picture Best Director race. Spielberg managed to grab the DGA nom, but Kong missed on all accounts. With films like Match Point and The New World also getting dropped, the race is getting good.

Actor:
Hoffman, Ledger, Straitharn, and Phoenix all seem to be locked, but who will win the fifth spot. Russel Crowe sneaked into the fifth spot that seems to be the only one up for grabs, ahead of Terrence Howard. Crowe was all but dead in this category, but the fifth spot could be his to lose. Its a coiin flip between the two actors now.

Actress: Well, three spots are pretty locked down now. Huffman, Witherspoon, and Dench seem to be the only definites. Watts and Allen missed out on the Guild nominations while Ziyi Zhang is surprisingly receiving noms for both the Globes and the SAG. Charleze Theron seems to be consistent for her slightly less than Monster performance. Again, the last two spots could go to any of those four women. Don't forget if Bello is placed in the leadign category like the Globes did, same for Laura Linney.

Supporting Actor:
Hmmmm...another fifth spot quandry. Gyllenhaal, Clooney, Giamatti, Dillon, all seem to have locked their first career Oscar nominations, but who will take the fifth spot. Most people seem to believe that fifth spot will go to one of the other Crash men: Terrence Howard or Don Chaedle who received an out of nowhere nom for the SAG. Many other might throw in a career nom for Frank Langella or possibly the beautiful and haunting cameo William Hurt delivered in A history of Violence

Supporting Actress:
What to do what to do? What many considered the weakest category of the year has suddenly become the most confusing. There are many possibilties here, but no real front runner. Michelle Williams, Rachel Weisz, and possibly Maria Bello might have their locks in, but other actresses are hot on their trail. Gong Li, Frances McDormand, Amy Adams, and Catherine Keener are all threatening. Laura Linney could pull a surprise nom out of the blue as well. This is getting good.

The Guilds certainly helped define the race, but also mudled it up a bit. Updated predictions are reflected on the right.

Spielberg Crafts Thriller Of The Year, But It's Not Enough

REVIEW: Munich

Encountering more Oscar buzz than almost any other film this year, Steven Spielberg's "Munich" was heavily anticipated, to say the least. Most interesting, was the choice to not campaign this film for the Oscars, which of course only created more buzz and mystery to its existence. After it's release, the film, unlike others (Memoirs of a Geisha), holds up to its buzz. Though not Best Picture worthy, it is entirely worthy of a nomination.

Centering on the events that occurred after the attacks and assassinations of the Israeli Olympic team of 1972, Tony Kushner(Angels In America), pens one of the most sophisticated thrillers of our time. Including conversations that, though they took place in 1972, ring with a certain truth today. Reminding us that not much has changed. The screenplay has its breathtaking moments, and should be rewarded accordingly.

Onto the acting. Eric Bana, though not being recognized by any major precursor award has still been looked at as a major contender for the Best Actor category. Portraying Avner, the leader of the five men sent to kill eleven men that had a hand in planning the attacks at the Olympics, Bana will unfortunately be overlooked. Though his performance transcends the average movie's lead, his role will probably lead him to a second tier nomination. However, don't let this prediction deceive you. He could very likely have to get used to having "Academy Award Nominee" in front of his name due to the last thirty minutes of the film. Bana takes the dark twist in the film as an opportunity to bolster his character and performance, which tips me off to what was wrong with the first 2 and a half hours: a lack of substance. Though the character is supposed to have underlying father issues that ultimately lead him to take the job, Bana never seemed to add that layer. Perhaps because the script itself never drastically pointed out that character trait. However, near the climax of the film and Avner's return home, Bana slops on a whole new layer of subtext, continuously reminding us of how the past year has haunted him and affects his daily life. This is exemplified in a heart breaking scene where Avner rummages through his house looking, desperately, for anything that might literally blow up in his face. Though Bana portrays a beautiful post-assassination Avner, the character is not difficult enough or solidly performed to earn a nomination in this very difficult category.

The film, however, belongs to the ladies. Though their character's time on film are few and far between, they demand every minute they have on it, a la Judi Dench in Shakespeare In Love. Marie-Josee Croze portrays a powerful yet tender mother who simply wants her husband back. Reminding us of wives left at home during war time, her husband is at war, but she has no one to sympathize with. Stranded in New York with a new born and no husband, Croze does everything right. When Avner returns home, she does not break down in tears because she is a very strong-willed woman. Expressing concern for her haunted husband, we see her heart-break and her undying love for the man she used to know. The second female of the film award goes to the very surprising performance of Lynn Cohen and her portrayal of Golda Meir, the Israeli Prime Minister. Golda Meir, historically known as the mother of Israel, is strong and unique. We see her grief over the loss of her fellow citizens and also, in one particular scene, the conflict of her personal feelings for family (her sister) when confronted with the funeral of the athletes. Dressed, literally, in clothes fit for a grandmother, this small lady still commands the attention and respect of every man in a scene with her. Unfortunately, these two performances are extremely brief, but you never know. Perhaps the Academy will smile on these under-dog performances...They have before.

Steven Spielberg does a masterful job with this film. Reminding us of Clint Eastwood's work in Million Dollar Baby, he directs the film with an everchanging scope. Changing lighting and shots to become more dramatic and dark as the film leaves its light hearted side in the dusk of multiple explosions. Though the film drags a bit in the middle, the noteworthy directing is exemplified by his choices involving the exposition of the massacre and the films final thirty minutes. It is as if Spielberg just decided to make a brilliant film, rather than just a good one. Unfortunately, it is a little too little too late. Because the film drags on a bit in the middle, leaving many wondering why the film had to be three hours, Munich lacks some of the power of other contenders like Brokeback Mountain and Good Night and Good Luck, but it will certainly be in the running.

RATING: A-

"Walk The Line" Feels All Too Familiar

REVIEW: Walk The Line

This has obviously been a long time coming seeing as how the movie came out a little while ago, but better late then never.

The movie centers around the life and drama of the acclaimed singer/songwriter Johnny Cash. Struggling through a multitude of problems, Walk The Line exposes almost every trouble that Johnny Cash must have gone through. Echoing in the wake of last years Ray, WTL has a similar feel, including all too familiar scenes from the singer's childhood life on a farm, drug abuse, affairs, and much much more!

While this movie may differ from the type of music being sung, this seems to be the carbon copy of last year's Ray. So naturally, WTL expresses similar upsides, and drawbacks. Like Ray, WTL provides for amazing performances in almost all the characters.

Mr. Phoenix plays Johnny Cash with ease and brilliance, making sure that each moment of silent reflection is as powerful as his spoken ones. In some of Cash's more down-trodden of experiences, phoenix truly shines, showing that the power of a scene does not have to be compassion and sympathy for a character, but can be equally effective with the reaction of pity and sorrow. We know the potential of Cash, and it literally hurts us to see him stumbling around amidst the judgment of his supposed peers. Successfully, phoenix so brilliantly portrays Cash's downfall, that the subsequent upward climb feels all the better to the viewer. Phoenix will most likely, like Jaime Foxx, receive his second Academy Award nomination.

Reese Witherspoon is the other star of this movie. In some scenes, she even outperforms her co-star. Playing with June Carter's constructed hilarity, while simultaneously embracing her innocence and blind love, Reese Witherspoon is nothing more than a joy to watch. The brilliance of the performance comes with the complexity of June Carter's defense mechanisms. She sees her true love on a downward spiral and tries to protect herself from the pain she can only assume will hit her head on. The true brilliance of the performance however, comes not with Witherspoon's ability to show these defense mechanisms, but her ability to show how fragile they are. We see her trying to distance herself, but at the same time, it so apparent that the steps she is taking to keep herself from being involved with Cash are seemingly futile. In the film's pinnacle scene (involving a proposal on stage), we see those carefully constructed walls crumble...And we couldn't be happier. Reese Witherspoon, snubbed for her performance in Election, will surely get her first nomination for Best Actress. Along with Felicity Huffman, Reese Witherspoon is one of the category's only locks.

Unfortunately, the talent and performance of the individual actors far outdoes the quality of the film, a problem many had with Ray. WTL is a brilliant character movie, but never ventures away from its "Made For TV" feel. With awkward editing and a few second-too-long closeups, the movie has its flaws. We, as viewers, can watch and appreciate the characters and their interactions, but never truly become involved with the film. WTL lacks the quality that truly affects the viewer, a quality that Million Dollar Baby easily possessed. While this film may get its nomination for Best Picture, it will suffer the same fate as Ray and The Aviator, a worthy nomination and a reputation for being known as incredibly acted bio-pics.

RATING: B+

The Predictions for the end of December are as follows. They don't represent the changes that will come with The SAG Award noms, the guilds, and the Golden Globe results.

Picture:
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Good Night And Good Luck
3. Munich
4. Walk The Line
5. King Kong
Honorable Mention: A History of Violence, Match Point, Cinderella Man

Director:
1. Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
2. Steven Speilberg - Munich
3. George Clooney - GNGL
4: Peter Jackson - King Kong
5: David Cronenberg - AHOV
HM: Bennett Miller, Woody Allen

Actor:
1. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
2. Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
3. Jaoquin Pheonix - Walk The Line
4. David Straitharn - GNGL
5. Jeff Daniels - The Squid And The Whale
HM: Viggo Mortenson, Terrence Howard

Actress:
1. Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
2. Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line
3. Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger
4. Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice
5. Naomi Watts - King Kong
HM: Judi Dench, Charlize Theron, Laura Linney

Supporting Actor:
1. Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
2. Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
3. Matt Dillon - Crash
4. George Clooney - Syriana
5. Kevin Costner - The Upside of Anger
HM: William Hurt, Bob Hoskins

Supporting Actress:
1. Maria Bello - A History of Violence
2. Scarlett Johansson - Match Point
3. Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
4. Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardner
5. Amy Adams - Junebug
HM: Laura Linney, Diane Keaton

Comment: While I am fairly certain that Laura Linney will capture a nomination for her work in The Squid And The Whale, I am not entirely sure which way she is being campaigned: Supporting, or Lead. Which is why she is only an Honorable Mention as of now

Welcome to the beginning of what I hope will become an enjoyable and informational cite. The Opened Envelope aims to predict and analyze the latest Oscar race. This includes predictions, precursor awards, category analysis and movie reviews. All of which are soon to come.

Next post will include detailed predictions for each major category.

Hope you enjoy!