Final Predictions

Best Picture: The Departed

Best Director: Martin Scorsese

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker

Best Actress: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson

Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Departed

Best Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Animated Feature: Cars

Best Oringinal Score: The Queen

Best Documentary Feauture: An Inconvienant Truth

Best Foreign Film: Pan's Labyrinth

Best Editing: The Departed

Best Art Direction: Dreamgirls

Best Original Song: Listen, Dreamgirls

Best Sound Editing: POTC: Dead Man's Chest

Best Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls

Best Costume Design: Dreamgirls

Best Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth

Best Visual Effects: POTC: Dead Man's Chest

Best Cinematography: Children Of Men

Best Documentary Short: The Blood of Yingzhou District

Best Live Action Short Film: West Bank Story

Best Animated Short Film: The Little Match Girl

Time To Break The Silence...

So, its pretty boring right now, the race I mean. The acting categories are pretty tied up and the only major category that is truly open is Best Picture. I change my mind depending on what day it is. I don't want to do a piece drawing out and talking about each and every nominee in the major categories because really, if you are reading this, you have read it before.

So I'll do some quick breakdowns rather than a category by category analysis that ends up the same as everything else you have read.

Best Director: It's Marty, not even Clint can upset this year.

Best Actor: Nothing has the power Forest Whitaker portrayed, but watch out for a Peter O'Toole steal for simply being overdue. Would LOVE a Ryan Gosling shock, but it's not possible.

Best Actress: You know already. Mirren trounces all.

Best Supporting Actress: J-Hud wins it despite being the fourth or fifth best performance in the category. Rinko or Cate should win, but watch for an Abigail Breslin shocker.

Best Supporting Actor: More open than people think. Eddie Murphy wins it barely. Stealing it from the hands of Jackie Earle Haley and veteran Alan Arkin. All good stories though.

Best Picture: Babel v. The Departed v. LMS v. Letters v. The Queen. Column later. Too open to quick-ify.


So there it is ladies and gents. However, I have been writing an Oscar series for The Daily Texan which I will post here as well. This series seeks to bring some awareness to the GOOD categories that are not hyped enough. Tech categories are Oscars too people.

From The Daily Texan:

Seeing that it's Oscar week, papers should be littered with articles breaking down the regular races of Best Picture, Best Director and the major acting categories. In an effort to recognize the under-appreciated, this week the Daily Texan will break down some of the best categories that no one talks about. We start with Cinematography, the process of lighting scenes and making specific camera choices to create an overall look for a motion picture, as part one in our series.

And the nominees for Best Cinematography are...

"The Black Dahlia," Vilmos Zsigmond - Three-time nominee and 1977 winner for his work on "Close Encounters Of The Third Kind," Zsigmond should be recognized; he is nominated for his work on the less-than-critically-acclaimed "The Black Dahlia." Zsigmond's work, which seemed to be the only worthwhile aspect of the film in the eyes of critics, is a standout. His expertly crafted Hollywood filmnoir throwback is gorgeous and is worthy of nomination, but the film's poor reputation will keep it at just that: a nomination.

"The Prestige," Wally Pfister - With beautiful lighting and expertly conceived angles, this year's first foray into the realm of magic is a sight to see. For his second nomination - the first for last year's "Batman Begins" -Pfister frames a field of light bulbs, reveals the dark realms of a magician's back stage and executes a steady decline of light as the film gets progressively more morose in such a precise manner that audiences can't help but be caught up in the magic.

"The Illusionist," Dick Pope - First-time nominee Dick Pope is responsible for the cinematography of the second magical film of the year, and the film certainly is majestic. Where "The Prestige" focuses on the glitz and glamour of magic, "The Illusionist" is all about the environment. Pope creates a brilliant landscape by displaying forests in lonely glum shades and casting characters in a light that reflects their hope and despair.

"Pan's Labyrinth," Guillermo Navarro - Also a first-timer at the Academy Awards, Navarro is responsible for one of the most visually stunning movies of the year. "Pan's Labyrinth" poses an interesting problem: how does a film combine the real and the imaginative without separating them to
the point at which significance is lost? Navarro provides a perfect answer, a gloomy fantasy world that differs in no way from the violence of the real world portrayed in the film. And for such a perfect answer, Navarro has been rewarded.

"Children Of Men," Emmanuel Lubezki - Garnering his fourth nomination for his astonishing work on "Children Of Men," Lubezki should expect to take home the gold for the first time. Lubeski not only matches war-torn London's tone of sadness and chaos, he embraces it. Creating a mood that is powerful, disturbing, glum and, in the end, enlightening,Lubeski exceeds expectations. It is both bleak and brilliant.

Who will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, "Children of Men."

That is all.

Let The Fun Begin

The time has come for a category-by-category breakdown of how things should go come Oscar night. I will write by first one starting with the supporting categories tonight and continue to follow those up throughout the next week.

Expect a column about potential upsets in each category because, while we all like to be right in our predictions, it is more fun if we can get one of those Adrien Brody-like shocks. And this year is not nearly as locked down as people think it is. Trust Me.

Check back tonight for more.

Back To It

Been a little tied up here in TX, so updating was a bit of a last concern.

The updates on the side include the asterisks by who I think the winners are as of now, but I do think that will change quite a bit.

I will predict now, that I believe Judi Dench is going to put up quite a fight for that Oscar and could win ina similar fashion to Adrien Brody beating Daniel Day Lewis a few years back. After nominations were released, she was the only one that anybody could talk about on the morning shows. Very interesting.

Best Picture is wide open, and I will say Little Miss Sunshine for now, but honestly don't believe its possible. I think its The Queen, Letters From Iwo Jima, or The Departed.

Look for a column tomorrow.

Holy shit!
No Dreamgirls
No Bill Condon
No Jack Nicolson!

More later....


Holy shit.

Final Predictions

Tomorrow is the day we have been waiting for. Personally, I find this day more exciting than the actual ceremony, which usually is pretty predictable by the time it rolls around.

Final Predicitions...including technical categories (ugh)

Best Picture:
- Babel
- Dreamgirls
- The Departed
- The Queen
- Little Miss Sunshine

Best Director:
- Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
- Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Babel
- Stephen Frears, The Queen
- Martin Scorsese, The Departed
- Paul Greengrass, United 93

Best Actor:
- Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
- Peter O'Toole, Venus
- Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
- Will Smith, The Pursuit Of Happyness
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed

Best Actress:
- Helen Mirren, The Queen
- Judi Dench, Notes On A Scandal
- Kate Winslet, Little Children
- Penelope Cruz, Volver
- Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Best Supporting Actor:
- Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
- Jack Nicholson, The Departed
- Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
- Djimon Housou, Blood Diamond
- Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children

Best Supporting Actress:
- Abigail Bresling, Little Miss Sunshine
- Cate Blanchett, Notes On A Scandal
- Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
- Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
- Adriana Barraza, Babel

Best Original Screenplay:
- United 93
- Little Miss Sunshine
- The Queen
- Babel
- Volver

Best Adapted Screenplay:
- The Departed
- Little Children
- Notes On A Scandal
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Thank You For Smoking

Foreign Film:
- The Lives Of Others, Germany
- Water, Canada
- Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico
- Volver, Spain
- Days Of Glory, Algeria

Documentary:
- Jesus Camp
- An Inconvienant Truth
- Deliver Us From Evil
- Iraq In Fragments
- Shut Up & Sing

Animated Feature Film:
- Happy Feet
- Cars
- Monster House

Cinematography:
- Apocalypto
- Children Of Men
- Babel
- The Good Shepherd
- Pan's Labyrinth

Editing:
- United 93
- Dreamgirls
- The Queen
- Babel
- The Departed

Art Direction:
- Marie Antoinette
- Dreamgirls
- Children Of Men
- Curse Of the Golden Flower
- Pan's Labyrinth

Costume Design:
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Dreamgirls
- Marie Antoinette
- Curse Of the Golden Flower
- The Painted Veil

Best Original Score:
- Babel
- Notes On A Scandal
- The Painted Veil
- The Fountain
- The Good German

Best Original Song:
- Never Gonna Break My Faith, Bobby
- Listen, Dreamgirls
- The Song Of The Heart, Happy Feet
- I Need To Wake Up, An Inconvenient Truth
- A Father's Way, The Pursuit Of Happyness

Sound Mixing:
- Casino Royale
- Dreamgirls
- Babel
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Flags Of Our Fathers

Sound Editing:
- Cars
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Superman Returns
- Flags Of Our Fathers
- Poseidon

Best Visual Effects:
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Superman Returns
- X-Men: The Last Stand

Best Makeup:
- Apocalypto
- Pan's Labyrinth
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

PGA Reveals Wide Open Race

Sasha Stone at Oscarwatch is reporting that Little Miss Sunshine won today's PGA, beating out Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, and The Queen for the distinction. In previous year the PGA has been pretty accurate predicting the eventual winner, but the last two years it selected Brokeback Mountain and The Aviator for its top prize. And as we all know, The Aviator lost to Million Dollar Baby and Brokeback Mountain lost to Crap....cough....Crash.

The race is wide open, ladies and gentlemen. The Departed snagged Critics Choice, Babel and Dreamgirls roped in the Globes, PGA for Little Miss Sunshine, and probably the BAFTA for The Queen.

I could be bothered by the confusion of this race because I like to be right, but honestly, a little drama is desperately needed since the other categories have become increasingly predictable.

Final Predictions Tomorrow.

Top Ten Films Of 2006

10. United 93

Paul Greengrass' docudrama depicting the awful events of September 11th and the powerful events on flight United 93 is one of the years most astonishing efforts. Taking an unknown cast (some of them were playing themselves), and a seemingly camera-in-hand view point, Greengrass was able to create a disturbingly real account of the flight that fought back, giving us chills at almost every scene. The precision of direction, brilliant nuance and reality of the screenplay, and the prowess of the ensemble give this film a reason to be seen, despite the fears that keep many of us from seeing it.

9. Brick

Bringing an entire genre back to life is nearly impossible, and doing it well is unheard of. Rian Johnson's feature is one of the finest indie efforts of the year, as it brings the horror of high school to a whole new level. Brick brings back film noir with scary ease: placing the story in a modern high school, but still supplying the ever needed drug scandals, gang wars, a dame who has trouble written all over her, and of course, one hell of a mystery. Joseph Gordon Levitt is powerful as hell with his disturbingly emotional, yet detached portrayal that makes us forget about that little sitcom he used to be in. After last year's Mysterious Skin, and now this, I can't wait to see what he does next

8. Dreamgirls

This year's Oscar frontrunner deserves the acclaim. Dreamgirls has the power of Chicago without the cynicism. Jennifer Hudson steals the show as Effie White and proves that you can change that ever sticking prefix of "American Idoler"...to "Oscar Winner." Beyonce holds her own, and lets the glitz and glamour of the movie take power. With one of the most entertaining films of the year, Bill Condon has crafted campy fun that gets stuck in your head and just won't leave. Which is maybe why I have been listening to the Soundtrack as much as I have. The film has it all with its bitchy humor, angry drama, and of course, Beyonce saying "fuck." The only thing I don't like about this movie is the fact that Anika Noni Rose hasn't gotten more appraisal.

7. Superman Returns

When Bryan Singer left the X-Man series, many were confused. Especially when they heard he left it for Superman. But when X-3 released and disappointed, but Superman Returns released and thrilled, no one was surprised anymore. This year's Batman Begins, Superman Returns is the best popcorn flick of the year. Adding depth and intelligence to what was thought to be a dead series is never easy, but on the shoulders of new-comer Brandon Routh, it is a task all too easy for Superman. Routh portrays the humanity of Superman, never letting the giant "S" on his chest turn him into a caricature, and ultimately proves that audiences don't love superheroes just being superheroes, but rather...superheroes being human.

6. The Queen

Helen Mirren is having quite a royal year. Winning multiple awards for her dual performances as Queen Elizabeth I in the HBO miniseries, and Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen, she has cemented her role as Oscar Frontrunner. Carrying this film like Philip Seymour Hoffman carried Capote, Helen Mirren delivers the performance of a lifetime. Showing power in restraint like we have never seen before, Mirren deserves all the accolades she receives. But Mirren doesn't carry the entire film. A flawless screenplay that integrates real life footage with possibly fictional events, The Queen paints a picture we can't help but believe, and love. Delving into the themes of hope, despair, and ultimately responsibility, the multiple layers to The Queen are phenomenal.

5. Half Nelson

At the end of Sundance last year, there was no doubt that Little Miss Sunshine and Half Nelson had major Oscar potential. Ryan Gosling delivers a haunting performance as a crack addicted teacher who has his secret addiction discovered by one his students played by Shareeka Epps. Epps delivers the best acting of year by someone under the age of 15. Yes, even better than Abigail Breslin. Epps carries a silent power and judgement that commands the screen. This teacher-student drama flips the black and white expectations of this over-used genre by switching the roles of what is expected, thus giving viewers an unexpectedly realistic version of the real drama between an afflicted teacher and his pupils. Gosling delivers the performance of the year with subtlety and regret, creating an atmosphere of despair and tangled responsibility. Half Nelson is a beautiful effort with more complexity than one would expect.

4. Shortbus

The so-called "hardcore" film of the year, Shortbus is a beautiful gem of a film exploring the interlinking lives of the sexually frustrated in New York City. Delving into personal troubles felt worldwide, Shortbus can be admired by anyone who has ever felt anything for anybody. The film has been railed for being near pornographic, but a film that has a central theme of openness and acceptance of one's body and its sexually capabilities certainly wouldn't take the hypocritical stance of being prudish with the topic of sex now would it? It is a beautiful medley of strange, wonderful, lonely, and ultimately fulfillment.

3. The Departed

Martin Scorsese is back, ladies and gentleman. For the first time since Goodfellas, I actually liked Scorsese. This high-speed, high-tension film is so intense that it's almost too much to handle sometimes. If you find a way to relax during the last thirty minutes of the movie, you are not human. But The Departed is not just a high energy joy ride, it is the stuff of real life. With surprising moments of drama, tension, and pain, The Departed transcends the realm of crime thriller and becomes something by itself all together, without a category to exist in. Vera Farmiga delivers the most under appreciated performance of the year, and acts as the sole female to bring conscience to such a violent and heavy headed film. From its unexpected hilarity to its very expected violence, The Departed has it all, and is not afraid to show it.

2. Little Children

Little Children is proof that brilliant film making will be unrecognized if the campaign isn't right. This powerhouse satirical melodrama, mostly recognized for acting and its screenplay, is one of the defining films of 2006. In a time where more and more adults are acting foolishly, and thus regretting the decisions that make up their lives, Little Children seems much more important than other films. With a bone chilling performance, Jackie Earle Haley keeps this movie from being the adultery-filled will-he-leave-her-or-wont-he movie audiences have seen for years. Little Children tosses together a medley of characters with such a degree of self-involvement , that by the end of the movie the difference between the actual children who play on the playground and the adults is entirely clear, and it does so beautifully. Teaching us, with glorified satire, that life is responsibility, not entitlement.

1. Children Of Men

2006's best film is, without question, Children Of Men. Clive Owen stars in this sci-fi thinker set in 2027, 18 years after the last child was born on Earth. The world is in shambles, but the pregnancy of one young girl brings hope and power into the hands of the protagonists. At first, Children Of Men is simply intriguing, but soon becomes so much more. With the subtle inter-play of all-too-real war zones, we are forced to visualize a future where destruction and chaos is not only prevalent, it is the norm. Children Of Men, is the powerful political force that other films like V For Vendetta tried to be. It teaches us to be human and enjoy that humanity because our actions might one day, for the first time in history, bring an era where the future is not endless. By creating a world where disarray and misconduct are caused supernaturally, Children Of Men makes the War we wage today seem not only pointless, but ridiculous simply because it is a path that was chosen and taken knowingly.With a beautiful score, haunting screenplay, an creepy art direction/cinematography, Children Of Men is an aching achievement of film that never becomes preachy, but just strives to show the importance of life inside the microcosm of sterility. Brilliant.

Update...

Will have Top Ten tonight....

....finally

Sorry....

I know I had a pretty tight schedule for this week, but I couldn't really update because believe it or not...Austin, TX has been under an inch of ice for about two days. I just got internet back, so I will catch up as soon as possible.

I am ditching the Worst Films piece and the Readers Choice piece as well. The others will still be completed, but I need a little time.

Sorry for the inconvenience.

Globe Predictions

Keeping it short...

PICTURE DRAMA: The Departed
Alternate: Babel
PICTURE COMEDY/MUSICAL: Dreamgirls
Alternate: Borat
ACTRESS DRAMA: Helen Mirren
Alternate: Judi Dench
ACTRESS COMEDY: Meryl Streep
Alternate: Beyonce Knowles
ACTOR DRAMA: Forest Whitaker
Alternate: Peter O'Toole
ACTOR COMEDY: Sacha Baron Cohen
Alternate: Aaron Eckhart
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Hudson
Alternate: Rinko Kikuchi
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Eddie Murphy
Alternate: Brad Pitt
DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese
Alternate: Eastwood (Letters)
ANIMATED FEATURE: Happy Feet
Alternate: Cars
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Letters From Iwo Jima
Alternate: Pan's Labyrinth
SCREENPLAY: Babel
Alternate: The Queen
ORIGINAL SCORE: Babel
Alternate: The Fountain
ORIGINAL SONG: "Listen"
Alternate: "Never Gonna Break My Faith"

Top Ten Films Later Tonight...

The Guilds Have Spoken...

Well, things certainly took a turn after all of the Guilds released their nominations. Who would have thought that in one week, Clint Eastwood's films...both of them...would suddenly be shut out and thus severely hurt in the Oscar race?

Also, who would have thought that Babel would suddenly become a serious contender for a win in the Best Picture category, especially if it takes home the Globe like a lot of people are saying it will. A Globe shock over The Departed will make Babel a serious contender with Scorsese's film and the ever-waning Dreamgirls.

I will be adding Screenplay categories and will do a complete prediction (including techs) before the Oscars. The WGA tossed some confusion in the mix with its nomination of Borat in the Adapted category instead of the Original category. If the AMPAS ate this film up like many think it did, then we could see Borat nominated in the Adapted category, pushing out much more deserving films like Children of Men, Little Children, or Thank You For Smoking.

Things that would be surprises that I would like to see happen:

Best Picture for Children of Men
Best Director for Del Toro
Best Actor for Clive Owen
Best Actress WIN for Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor for Ben Affleck
Best Supporting Actress for either Emily Blunt or Toni Collette

With the nods in the Guild world being finished, it appears like these things won't happen, which is why they would be surprises.

Here is the schedule for the next week:

Monday: Top Ten Films of 2006
Tuesday: Worst Films of 2006
Wednesday: 1st Annual Opened Envelope Awards
Thursday: Reader's Choice Awards
Friday: Final Breakdown of Predictions

You might have realized that Thursday is the announcement for Reader's Choice. This means that you, as readers...need to choose. Please give a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for each of the major six categories...I would love if you guys included screenplay, but if it is too much then don't worry about it.

ROCK IT!

Complete Acting Updates!

Bout time I overhauled these categories. With the SAGs, Globes, and BFCAs releasing their nominations, we have just about all the information we can get on the acting categories. The ballots for Oscar nominees will already be in when any of these awards are given out, so their is no real point in waiting.

Best Actor

Forest Whitaker The Last King Of Scotland
Will Smith The Pursuit of Happyness
Peter O'Toole Venus
Ryan Gosling Half Nelson
Leonardo Dicaprio The Departed

The Breakdown...

Whitaker is the obvious front runner with almost everyone critical precursor and the nods at the majors backing his performance as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Many are saying that this feels a lot like the runaway victory the Hoffman had last year, but don't underestimate the power of the older AMPAS voter. Will Smith could upset this race with a touchy-feely performance in The Pursuit of Happyness that Oscar voters just tend to melt over. Peter O'Toole is locked in for a nod here and could upset as well under the pretense of being overdue. He's been nominated 7 times and never won. Gosling got the SAG and BFCA nod he needed to stay in the race and his likelihood for a nomination can be described as being the weakest lock a lock can be. The only reason the Dicaprio is so low on this list is because of the deadly beasts of category confusion and split voting. SAG honored his lead performance in Blood Diamond and his performance The Departed...but in the supporting category. Many say his role in the much more popular The Departed will get the nod over his silly accented performance in Blood Diamond, but if voters split their decision over which film he should be nominated for then Leo could be shut out of the category completely.

Important: If Dicaprio gets shut out then look for a surprise nod to either Ken Watanabe, Aaron Eckhart, or Sacha Baron Cohen.


Best Actress

Helen Mirren The Queen
Judi Dench Notes On A Scandal
Meryl Streep The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet Little Children
Penelope Cruz Volver

The Breakdown...

Really nothing to talk about here in terms of nominations. The category is boring with little room for surprise. One can only hope that Toni Collete could get a nod here, but that is VERY VERY unlikely. These ladies are locked, but the win is not nearly as obvious as people think. Consider the case of Daniel Day Lewis and Adrien Brody a few years ago. People get tired of the same person winning over and over. I'm just saying.


Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson Dreamgirls
Cate Blanchett Notes On A Scandal
Rinko Kikuchi Babel
Adriana Barraza Babel
Abigail Breslin Little Miss Sunshine

The Breakdown...

Well the top three of this category are locked for nods. Hudson, Blanchett, and Kikuchi have shared the precursor love, but Hudson still looks to be the frontrunner for her show-stealing performance as Effie White in Dreamgirls. Blanchett is looking for her second Oscar in three years, but Kikuchi is breaking into the scene for a powerhouse performance as a deaf-mute in Babel. The complexity of her character is jarring and how an actress can steal focus away from Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett without saying a word is beyond me. Barraza has the heart of the movie though, and the Babel girls are looking to nominated as a pair like they have been for the BFCA, SAG, and Globe. Breslin really is an iffy prediction right now seeing as the consensus is that Catherine O'Hara will get the fifth spot. But I think Bresling benefits not only from her SAG nod, but also O'Hara's snub at both the Globes and SAGs. Breslin gets stronger with her SAG nod, but more importantly with the weakening of her competition.


Supporting Actor

Eddie Murphy Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley Little Children
Alan Arkin Little Miss Sunshine
Djimon Hounsou Blood Diamond


The Breakdown...

This is easily the hardest category to predict. Murphy is the only real lock here since he is the only one nominated at all three of the majors. Nicholson missed out on the SAG but some can argue that happened because Dicaprio pushed him out. Nicholson will get the nomination because AMPAS loves him more than the HFPA love Renee Zelwegger or Scarlett Johansson. They had him announce Best Picture last year for no reason other than they thought he would look cool...he's a lock too. After this...it gets pretty confusing. Jackie Earle Haley is the critical darling of the year and has six awards to back that up. The role is baity as hell, he has the SAG nod, and he is a great comeback story too. I think he's in. Alan Arkin fits the mold of this category exceedingly well. This is the category where voters feel alright giving the award away to someone who is "overdue." They awarded George Clooney when he didn't deserve to win, and the same goes for Morgan Freeman, and Tim Robbins of the previous years. His performance is not one of the best supporting performance of the year, or even that movie, but he will get the nomination. Finally, Djimon Hounsou will shock a lot of people come announcement time by grabbing the fifth spot away from Pitt, Affleck, Sheen, Beach, and Wahlberg. He won the NBR, got a BFCA nod, and a SAG as well. His performance is one of the only good things about that film, but it is great. He should be honored here like he was for In America a few years ago.



This is so freakin exciting, and barring any major shifts in buzz or category shifting, these should be near my final predictions for nominations. I might get nervous about Supporting Actor and change it up, but who knows?

Comments? Questions? Feel Free...

Best Picture Gets A Shuffle...

With the announcements of the SAG and PGA nominations, Letters From Iwo Jima is not nearly as locked as people think it is. Having a lower profile Foreign Film Globe nod, no notice at the Producer's guild, and the complete shutout at the SAGs is not a very good sign for it's chances at the Kodak. Many pegged it as a front runner after its NBR win earlier this season, but the focus has shifted to Dreamgirls and The Departed instead. Babel gets a HUGE boost to with the leading number of Globe nominations, a SAG ensemble nod, and the PGA. Same goes for Little Miss Sunshine as well. Suddenly it appears like the lineup for Best Picture might exclude Clint Eastwood's counterpart to the mediocre Flags Of Our Fathers, but is Letters another Munich? Munich failed to reach a PGA or a Globe nod and appeared dead in the water, but still got the nod come Oscar time.

DGA and WGA announcements should give us some more perspective.

Predictions Update: Best Picture

This race is started to become exceedingly predictable, as are most categories around this time of year. Most pundits can accurately guess four nominees that are considered locked, and then comes the question of the coveted fifth spot. Since discussing the locked nature of The Departed, The Queen, Dreamgirls, and Letters From Iwo Jima is pretty much a boring affair, and would not make for an interesting entry, I thought a profile of the few films grasping for that fifth slot would be a little more interesting.

Babel

The HFPA certainly gave this film a huge boost when they released their Golden Globe nominations and Babel is trying to ride that wave all the way to the nomination ceremony. However, I don't think Oscar voters are stupid enough not to realize that the Hollywood Foreign Press is obviously going to love a Hollywood made movie that happens to be set in four different foreign countries. The film screams Golden Globe, but its divisive "love it hate it" nature will keep it from taking a slot in the top five. Ultimately the film will have the same kind of support that 21 Grams did: huge kudos for the acting, a definite screenplay nomination, along with a possible win with score.

Flags Of Our Fathers

Really even mentioning this film in the top five has become a laughable affair. At one time, Flags was the film that fight Dreamgirls for the top spot...and then it released. Mediocre critical response, awful box office generation, and no mention outside the Satellite nominations in precursors keep this film from entering the top five. I even pondered whether or not I should even mention this film in this entry because a nomination for Flags would signal the end in my Oscar predicting career in the form of a boycott.

Little Miss Sunshine

Now it comes to the serious contenders. Little Miss Sunshine feels like a mix of Munich and Capote of last year: a smaller film that looked stronger as the awards season continued yet is still in question because of a few fatal flaws in the film. While it is charming as all hell, the fact of the matter is that it is not the "comedy" that people think it is. It feels like The Royal Tenenbaums redux: a well-done, underachieving, dark, slightly comedic look into a family and their journey for fulfillment. However, Little Miss Sunshine has been running the most creative campaign the Oscar race has seen in years: a yellow VW has been driving around Santa Monica with "Little Best Picture" plastered on the side. As we saw with Terrence Howard last year, the best campaign wins when it comes to nominations.

United 93

But what about Paul Greengrass's extraordinary docu-depiction of the flight that fought back? United 93 would be considered the critical darling of the year if The Departed didn't exist. It has certainly put its footprint in the critics awards with winning New York, Utah, Dallas, etc, but the fact of the matter is that not many people saw the movie outside of those critics. It is the opinion of this writer that United 93 should be considered a contender for winning best picture, but unfortunately most of the consensus is that the movie is a better directed film than a film all together. I would not be surprised if Greengrass scored a nomination for Director, but the film missed as a whole.

Ultimately the question is: what is more important to Oscar voters, a well established campaign for a movie with a very strong fanbase, or better executed film that concentrates on a sensitive subject that has little following but stronger critical support?

In the end the best campaign wins, and Little Miss Sunshine will grab the nod.

Breakdown:

The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

I'm Back...

Sorry for the lack of posts recently but you know how the holidays get. Oscar world is getting very exciting with numerous critics awards being dolled out (which I will have a breakdown for you in no time at all), and buzz shifting dramatically away from Dreamgirls. I have reviews of Dreamgirls, Pursuit of Happyness, and Apacolypto on the way along with complete prediction changes.

Things are heating up dramatically.

If you would like me to research the history of any given critics group for their past accuract let me know which one and I will include it on the breakdown later this week. Let me know...

The Globes Are...Interesting...

'Bobby" gets a Best Drama nod, Ryan Gosling gets snubbed, Leonardo gets two lead nominations, Chiwetel Ejiofor for "Kinky Boots", "Babel" leads the race with nods, Toni Collette for lead actress, two Clint Eastwood director nominations missing, Foreign Film being the most exciting race, and the wide open nature of supporting actor are just a few of the strange developments that the Globe revealed.

Who gets help?

Babel gets a huge boost here and could likely defeat The Departed in Drama race. HFPA loves the type of movie Babel is (set internationaly with four languages).

Dicaprio and Eastwood get double nominations each which mean nothing other than they could split their own vote come voting time.

Dreamgirls could lose to Borat, which would be ridiculous and further proof that HFPA is a sucker for political commentary despite its cinematic merit.

Emily Blunt for Supporting Actress!!! I loved her performance in The Devil Wears Prada and was hoping it would get the type of recognition Will Ferrell got last year. Who knows, maybe it could be more for her?

United 93 gets completely shut out, but then again so did Munich, Capote, and Crash last year.

Big help for Peter O'Toole is was starting to fade from memory in the shadow of Forest Whitaker, same thing for Will Smith.

HUGE boost for Mark Wahlberg and Ben Affleck here, could Affleck walk away with a win? Eddie vs. Jack vs. Ben vs. Brad. WIDE OPEN here.

Big help for Adriana Barraza and Maggie Gyllenhaal who seemed to be all but forgotten in the major critic groups.

Dreamgirls and Little Miss Sunshine get snubbed from the Screenplay categories and Half Nelson gets shut out completely. Not a huge surprise there.

Flags of Our Fathers gets the snub that everyone was expecting and Little Children takes its place.

It is important to understand that the Globes are not exactly a precursor. The voting ballots for the Oscars will be turned in by the time the show airs, but the nominations have some effect, but a minimal one at best. The Globes are an awards show by themselves and the HFPA do not act to influence anything other than themselves. This is why so many view the Globe nominations as crazy, but they are only mixed up when viewed under the scope of the Oscars. So relax, and enjoy the circus

Updates coming soon with predictions. A LOT to think about.

Globe Nominations

Picture, Drama:
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Little Children"
"The Queen"

Actress, Drama:
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"

Actor, Drama: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Picture, Musical or Comedy:
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Thank You for Smoking"

Actress, Musical or Comedy:
Annette Bening, "Running With Scissors"
Toni Collette, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Beyonce Knowles, "Dreamgirls"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Renee Zellweger, "Miss Potter"

Actor, Musical or Comedy:
Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan"
Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Aaron Eckhart, "Thank You for Smoking"
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "Kinky Boots"
Will Ferrell, "Stranger than Fiction"

Supporting Actress:
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Emily Blunt, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Supporting Actor:
Ben Affleck, "Hollywoodland"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"
Brad Pitt, "Babel"
Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed"

Director:
Clint Eastwood, "Flags of Our Fathers"
Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima"
Steven Frears, "The Queen"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

Screenplay:
Guillermo Arriaga, "Babel"
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, "Little Children"
Patrick Marber, "Notes on a Scandal"
William Monahan, "The Departed"
Peter Morgan, "The Queen"

Foreign Language:
"Apocalypto," USA
"Letters from Iwo Jima," USA/Japan
"The Lives of Others," Germany
"Pan's Labyrinth," Mexico
"Volver" Spain

Animated Film:
"Cars"
"Happy Feet"
"Monster House"

Original Score:
Alexandre Desplat, "The Painted Veil"
Clint Mansell, "The Fountain"
Gustavo Santaolalla, "Babel"
Carlo Siliotto, "Nomad"
Hans Zimmer, "The Da Vinci Code"

Original Song:
"A Father's Way" from "The Pursuit of Happyness"
"Listen" from "Dreamgirls"
"Never Gonna Break My Faith" from "Bobby"
"The Song of the Heart" from "Happy Feet"
"Try Not to Remember" from "Home of the Brave"

San Francisco Critics Love 'Little Children'

Best Picture – Little Children
Best Director – Paul Greengrass, United 93
Best Actor – Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
Best Actress – Helen Mirren, The Queen
Best Supporting Actor – Jackie Earle Haley, Little Childen
Best Supporting Actress – Adriana Barraza, Babel
Best Screenplay – Little Children
Best Foreign Film – Pan’s Labyrinth

BFCA Noms

Almost everything nominated is in my top five or the FYC sections...I think I am on the right track here. Look for some prediction updates after the Globes announce their nominations.


BEST PICTURE:
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Queen
United 93

BEST ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Blood Diamond”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Departed”
Ryan Gosling – “Half Nelson”
Peter O’Toole – “Venus”
Will Smith – “The Pursuit of Happyness”
Forest Whitaker – “The Last King of Scotland”

BEST ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz – “Volver”
Judi Dench – “Notes on a Scandal”
Helen Mirren – “The Queen”
Meryl Streep – “The Devil Wears Prada”
Kate Winslet – “Little Children”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Ben Affleck – “Hollywoodland”
Alan Arkin – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Adam Beach – “Flags of Our Fathers”
Djimon Hounsou – “Blood Diamond”
Eddie Murphy – “Dreamgirls”
Jack Nicholson – “The Departed”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Adriana Barraza – “Babel”
Cate Blanchett – “Notes on a Scandal”
Jennifer Hudson – “Dreamgirls”
Rinko Kikuchi – “Babel”
Catherine O’Hara – “For Your Consideration”
Emma Thompson – “Stranger Than Fiction”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE:
Babel
Bobby
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
A Prairie Home Companion

BEST DIRECTOR:
Bill Condon – “Dreamgirls”
Clint Eastwood – “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Stephen Frears – “The Queen”
Paul Greengrass – “United 93”
Martin Scorsese – “The Departed”

BEST WRITER:
Michael Arndt – “Little Miss Sunshine”
Guillermo Arriaga – “Babel”
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta – “Little Children”
Zach Helm – “Stranger Than Fiction”
William Monahan – “The Departed”
Peter Morgan – “The Queen”