Chart Updates....

Full updates on the side bar. The year is looking to be extremely interesting. I will be breaking down the categories soon, when time opens up a little bit. Starting with Best Actress.

What do you guys think of the predicts?

Jon Stewart!!!!!

While I loved Ellen (who couldn't) I am thrilled with Jon Stewart taking the hosting duties this year. Especially given the politically charged movies this year. Can't wait.

Updates on predicts after Toronto.

P.S. Word on the street is that Reservation Road is freaking awesome. I have been predicting this since I heard about the cast, and even the awful poster and stupid trailer couldn't turn me off. Lovin' this!



Awful poster. Check out Awardsdaily.com for a full panning of this one sheet.

Updates and Questions

I will be updating the side bar and running some profiles and thoughts on the major contenders pretty soon.

Classes are starting here so things are hectic. But I promise I'll get around to it.

Thanks.

For now, what do you guys think about this season? Have any ideas about sleeper noms or clear frontrunner? Who is a shoe-in? Who needs some help?

P.S. I'm lovin' that "Atonement" got some raves from its first screening. More on that later.

Superbad

Well, I have found a group of comic actors with the stick together qualities of the Vince Vaughn-Owen Wilson-Will Ferrell clique that I don't actually hate. The Judd Apatow group is the new Ferrell group, and they didn't just replace, they freakin' out performed!

Superbad, the new Seth Rogen penned comedy featuring the ever hilarious Jonah Hill (Knocked Up) and Michael Cera (Arrested Development), is the funniest movie of the summer. A throwback to the Dazed and Confused movies where high school students act like the hedonistic characters they are, Superbad is SuperAwesome! Taking place in just one day, the story focuses on Seth and Evan's quest for alcohol, popularity, and of course, vagina.

Starting right off the bat with some of the most original (and let's admit it....hilarious) shock humor to grace the silver screen, the movie quickly becomes a fascinating exploration of a truly unique relationship. While initially Seth and Evan live in a world where nothing but women matter, the truth, as it usually does, reveals itself: the only people they really care about are each other. Unfortunately the scripts only weak point is the transition into said emotional area. It was break neck! Funny one second, dramatic whiplash the next. Fortunately the tangible chemistry between the two not only saves the impractical scene, but makes us care as well.

Rogen's cop and the formidable "Fogell" add some incredibly entertaining supporting characters, but that is their only real role: blatant humor ("I have a boner!") The acting across the board achieves what it is supposed to: a believable cast of high school students who actually act their age. And the script and director fortunately do their jobs as well: avoiding self-importance, and existing as if they don't at all.

The bottom line is, Superbad is hilarious, and fun. And if you can get past the randomly indulgent spat near the beginning of the third act, then the movie is damn near perfect. See it!

RATING: B+

The Lovely Bones

Alright, I know this is way premature, but I am loving the casting for the 2008 project The Lovely Bones, adapted from Alice Sebold nearly infamous book about a little girl who is raped and murdered, spending her time after death watching her family cope.

Let's run this down:

Peter Jackson is directing - Hopefully it stays under 3 hours

Rachel Weisz and Ryan Gosling are the grieving parents - LOVE both of these actors and with Half Nelson and The Constant Gardner giving them both Oscar attention in the last few years, they will be on the radar REAL fast.

Susan Sarandon as the grandmother - If she doesn't win for In The Valley Of Elah this year, then she very well might next year. This role is an amazingly baity role.

Saoirse Ronan as Susie, the victim - If the attention for Atonement isn't the perfect momentum going into this role, then I don't know what is. If her performance this year gets enough attention, little Ronan could be looking at back to back nods.

AND MY FAVORITE!!!

STANLEY TUCCI as George Harvey, the killer - SO HAPPY! After one of his best (and totally underrated) performances last year in The Devil Wears Prada, Tucci looked to breaking out of his job as the actor who's face you know but not his name. This is the best role in the movie, and he is already my front-runner for winning in 2008.

I know all of this is premature, but I'm lovin' it.

The Kite Runner

The fact of the matter is, really famous books have a history of not doing so well at the Oscars (Cold Mountain, Memoirs Of A Geisha), while little known ones do better.

I'm nervous about this one, but the trailer is hot like fire, and the setting is political and very current so who knows?

Reservation Road Trailer

Well apparently YouTube has taken down the trailer, so here is another link to check it out. Don't understand why Focus Features would take it down, but that's that I suppose.

Check it out here

Here We Go Again!

So as some of you know, I don't really believe in making predictions for the following year right after the awards show is over, so I usually end up holding off until festival season to get my first round of predictions up.

I will be doing a profile of each major category as I get to it, but I have a my first round of predics on the sidebar.

Next post should be focusing on the supporting categories.

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Final Predictions

Best Picture: The Departed

Best Director: Martin Scorsese

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker

Best Actress: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson

Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Departed

Best Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Animated Feature: Cars

Best Oringinal Score: The Queen

Best Documentary Feauture: An Inconvienant Truth

Best Foreign Film: Pan's Labyrinth

Best Editing: The Departed

Best Art Direction: Dreamgirls

Best Original Song: Listen, Dreamgirls

Best Sound Editing: POTC: Dead Man's Chest

Best Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls

Best Costume Design: Dreamgirls

Best Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth

Best Visual Effects: POTC: Dead Man's Chest

Best Cinematography: Children Of Men

Best Documentary Short: The Blood of Yingzhou District

Best Live Action Short Film: West Bank Story

Best Animated Short Film: The Little Match Girl

Time To Break The Silence...

So, its pretty boring right now, the race I mean. The acting categories are pretty tied up and the only major category that is truly open is Best Picture. I change my mind depending on what day it is. I don't want to do a piece drawing out and talking about each and every nominee in the major categories because really, if you are reading this, you have read it before.

So I'll do some quick breakdowns rather than a category by category analysis that ends up the same as everything else you have read.

Best Director: It's Marty, not even Clint can upset this year.

Best Actor: Nothing has the power Forest Whitaker portrayed, but watch out for a Peter O'Toole steal for simply being overdue. Would LOVE a Ryan Gosling shock, but it's not possible.

Best Actress: You know already. Mirren trounces all.

Best Supporting Actress: J-Hud wins it despite being the fourth or fifth best performance in the category. Rinko or Cate should win, but watch for an Abigail Breslin shocker.

Best Supporting Actor: More open than people think. Eddie Murphy wins it barely. Stealing it from the hands of Jackie Earle Haley and veteran Alan Arkin. All good stories though.

Best Picture: Babel v. The Departed v. LMS v. Letters v. The Queen. Column later. Too open to quick-ify.


So there it is ladies and gents. However, I have been writing an Oscar series for The Daily Texan which I will post here as well. This series seeks to bring some awareness to the GOOD categories that are not hyped enough. Tech categories are Oscars too people.

From The Daily Texan:

Seeing that it's Oscar week, papers should be littered with articles breaking down the regular races of Best Picture, Best Director and the major acting categories. In an effort to recognize the under-appreciated, this week the Daily Texan will break down some of the best categories that no one talks about. We start with Cinematography, the process of lighting scenes and making specific camera choices to create an overall look for a motion picture, as part one in our series.

And the nominees for Best Cinematography are...

"The Black Dahlia," Vilmos Zsigmond - Three-time nominee and 1977 winner for his work on "Close Encounters Of The Third Kind," Zsigmond should be recognized; he is nominated for his work on the less-than-critically-acclaimed "The Black Dahlia." Zsigmond's work, which seemed to be the only worthwhile aspect of the film in the eyes of critics, is a standout. His expertly crafted Hollywood filmnoir throwback is gorgeous and is worthy of nomination, but the film's poor reputation will keep it at just that: a nomination.

"The Prestige," Wally Pfister - With beautiful lighting and expertly conceived angles, this year's first foray into the realm of magic is a sight to see. For his second nomination - the first for last year's "Batman Begins" -Pfister frames a field of light bulbs, reveals the dark realms of a magician's back stage and executes a steady decline of light as the film gets progressively more morose in such a precise manner that audiences can't help but be caught up in the magic.

"The Illusionist," Dick Pope - First-time nominee Dick Pope is responsible for the cinematography of the second magical film of the year, and the film certainly is majestic. Where "The Prestige" focuses on the glitz and glamour of magic, "The Illusionist" is all about the environment. Pope creates a brilliant landscape by displaying forests in lonely glum shades and casting characters in a light that reflects their hope and despair.

"Pan's Labyrinth," Guillermo Navarro - Also a first-timer at the Academy Awards, Navarro is responsible for one of the most visually stunning movies of the year. "Pan's Labyrinth" poses an interesting problem: how does a film combine the real and the imaginative without separating them to
the point at which significance is lost? Navarro provides a perfect answer, a gloomy fantasy world that differs in no way from the violence of the real world portrayed in the film. And for such a perfect answer, Navarro has been rewarded.

"Children Of Men," Emmanuel Lubezki - Garnering his fourth nomination for his astonishing work on "Children Of Men," Lubezki should expect to take home the gold for the first time. Lubeski not only matches war-torn London's tone of sadness and chaos, he embraces it. Creating a mood that is powerful, disturbing, glum and, in the end, enlightening,Lubeski exceeds expectations. It is both bleak and brilliant.

Who will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, "Children of Men."

That is all.

Let The Fun Begin

The time has come for a category-by-category breakdown of how things should go come Oscar night. I will write by first one starting with the supporting categories tonight and continue to follow those up throughout the next week.

Expect a column about potential upsets in each category because, while we all like to be right in our predictions, it is more fun if we can get one of those Adrien Brody-like shocks. And this year is not nearly as locked down as people think it is. Trust Me.

Check back tonight for more.

Back To It

Been a little tied up here in TX, so updating was a bit of a last concern.

The updates on the side include the asterisks by who I think the winners are as of now, but I do think that will change quite a bit.

I will predict now, that I believe Judi Dench is going to put up quite a fight for that Oscar and could win ina similar fashion to Adrien Brody beating Daniel Day Lewis a few years back. After nominations were released, she was the only one that anybody could talk about on the morning shows. Very interesting.

Best Picture is wide open, and I will say Little Miss Sunshine for now, but honestly don't believe its possible. I think its The Queen, Letters From Iwo Jima, or The Departed.

Look for a column tomorrow.

Holy shit!
No Dreamgirls
No Bill Condon
No Jack Nicolson!

More later....


Holy shit.

Final Predictions

Tomorrow is the day we have been waiting for. Personally, I find this day more exciting than the actual ceremony, which usually is pretty predictable by the time it rolls around.

Final Predicitions...including technical categories (ugh)

Best Picture:
- Babel
- Dreamgirls
- The Departed
- The Queen
- Little Miss Sunshine

Best Director:
- Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
- Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Babel
- Stephen Frears, The Queen
- Martin Scorsese, The Departed
- Paul Greengrass, United 93

Best Actor:
- Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
- Peter O'Toole, Venus
- Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
- Will Smith, The Pursuit Of Happyness
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed

Best Actress:
- Helen Mirren, The Queen
- Judi Dench, Notes On A Scandal
- Kate Winslet, Little Children
- Penelope Cruz, Volver
- Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Best Supporting Actor:
- Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
- Jack Nicholson, The Departed
- Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
- Djimon Housou, Blood Diamond
- Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children

Best Supporting Actress:
- Abigail Bresling, Little Miss Sunshine
- Cate Blanchett, Notes On A Scandal
- Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
- Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
- Adriana Barraza, Babel

Best Original Screenplay:
- United 93
- Little Miss Sunshine
- The Queen
- Babel
- Volver

Best Adapted Screenplay:
- The Departed
- Little Children
- Notes On A Scandal
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Thank You For Smoking

Foreign Film:
- The Lives Of Others, Germany
- Water, Canada
- Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico
- Volver, Spain
- Days Of Glory, Algeria

Documentary:
- Jesus Camp
- An Inconvienant Truth
- Deliver Us From Evil
- Iraq In Fragments
- Shut Up & Sing

Animated Feature Film:
- Happy Feet
- Cars
- Monster House

Cinematography:
- Apocalypto
- Children Of Men
- Babel
- The Good Shepherd
- Pan's Labyrinth

Editing:
- United 93
- Dreamgirls
- The Queen
- Babel
- The Departed

Art Direction:
- Marie Antoinette
- Dreamgirls
- Children Of Men
- Curse Of the Golden Flower
- Pan's Labyrinth

Costume Design:
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Dreamgirls
- Marie Antoinette
- Curse Of the Golden Flower
- The Painted Veil

Best Original Score:
- Babel
- Notes On A Scandal
- The Painted Veil
- The Fountain
- The Good German

Best Original Song:
- Never Gonna Break My Faith, Bobby
- Listen, Dreamgirls
- The Song Of The Heart, Happy Feet
- I Need To Wake Up, An Inconvenient Truth
- A Father's Way, The Pursuit Of Happyness

Sound Mixing:
- Casino Royale
- Dreamgirls
- Babel
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Flags Of Our Fathers

Sound Editing:
- Cars
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Superman Returns
- Flags Of Our Fathers
- Poseidon

Best Visual Effects:
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Superman Returns
- X-Men: The Last Stand

Best Makeup:
- Apocalypto
- Pan's Labyrinth
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

PGA Reveals Wide Open Race

Sasha Stone at Oscarwatch is reporting that Little Miss Sunshine won today's PGA, beating out Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, and The Queen for the distinction. In previous year the PGA has been pretty accurate predicting the eventual winner, but the last two years it selected Brokeback Mountain and The Aviator for its top prize. And as we all know, The Aviator lost to Million Dollar Baby and Brokeback Mountain lost to Crap....cough....Crash.

The race is wide open, ladies and gentlemen. The Departed snagged Critics Choice, Babel and Dreamgirls roped in the Globes, PGA for Little Miss Sunshine, and probably the BAFTA for The Queen.

I could be bothered by the confusion of this race because I like to be right, but honestly, a little drama is desperately needed since the other categories have become increasingly predictable.

Final Predictions Tomorrow.

Top Ten Films Of 2006

10. United 93

Paul Greengrass' docudrama depicting the awful events of September 11th and the powerful events on flight United 93 is one of the years most astonishing efforts. Taking an unknown cast (some of them were playing themselves), and a seemingly camera-in-hand view point, Greengrass was able to create a disturbingly real account of the flight that fought back, giving us chills at almost every scene. The precision of direction, brilliant nuance and reality of the screenplay, and the prowess of the ensemble give this film a reason to be seen, despite the fears that keep many of us from seeing it.

9. Brick

Bringing an entire genre back to life is nearly impossible, and doing it well is unheard of. Rian Johnson's feature is one of the finest indie efforts of the year, as it brings the horror of high school to a whole new level. Brick brings back film noir with scary ease: placing the story in a modern high school, but still supplying the ever needed drug scandals, gang wars, a dame who has trouble written all over her, and of course, one hell of a mystery. Joseph Gordon Levitt is powerful as hell with his disturbingly emotional, yet detached portrayal that makes us forget about that little sitcom he used to be in. After last year's Mysterious Skin, and now this, I can't wait to see what he does next

8. Dreamgirls

This year's Oscar frontrunner deserves the acclaim. Dreamgirls has the power of Chicago without the cynicism. Jennifer Hudson steals the show as Effie White and proves that you can change that ever sticking prefix of "American Idoler"...to "Oscar Winner." Beyonce holds her own, and lets the glitz and glamour of the movie take power. With one of the most entertaining films of the year, Bill Condon has crafted campy fun that gets stuck in your head and just won't leave. Which is maybe why I have been listening to the Soundtrack as much as I have. The film has it all with its bitchy humor, angry drama, and of course, Beyonce saying "fuck." The only thing I don't like about this movie is the fact that Anika Noni Rose hasn't gotten more appraisal.

7. Superman Returns

When Bryan Singer left the X-Man series, many were confused. Especially when they heard he left it for Superman. But when X-3 released and disappointed, but Superman Returns released and thrilled, no one was surprised anymore. This year's Batman Begins, Superman Returns is the best popcorn flick of the year. Adding depth and intelligence to what was thought to be a dead series is never easy, but on the shoulders of new-comer Brandon Routh, it is a task all too easy for Superman. Routh portrays the humanity of Superman, never letting the giant "S" on his chest turn him into a caricature, and ultimately proves that audiences don't love superheroes just being superheroes, but rather...superheroes being human.

6. The Queen

Helen Mirren is having quite a royal year. Winning multiple awards for her dual performances as Queen Elizabeth I in the HBO miniseries, and Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen, she has cemented her role as Oscar Frontrunner. Carrying this film like Philip Seymour Hoffman carried Capote, Helen Mirren delivers the performance of a lifetime. Showing power in restraint like we have never seen before, Mirren deserves all the accolades she receives. But Mirren doesn't carry the entire film. A flawless screenplay that integrates real life footage with possibly fictional events, The Queen paints a picture we can't help but believe, and love. Delving into the themes of hope, despair, and ultimately responsibility, the multiple layers to The Queen are phenomenal.

5. Half Nelson

At the end of Sundance last year, there was no doubt that Little Miss Sunshine and Half Nelson had major Oscar potential. Ryan Gosling delivers a haunting performance as a crack addicted teacher who has his secret addiction discovered by one his students played by Shareeka Epps. Epps delivers the best acting of year by someone under the age of 15. Yes, even better than Abigail Breslin. Epps carries a silent power and judgement that commands the screen. This teacher-student drama flips the black and white expectations of this over-used genre by switching the roles of what is expected, thus giving viewers an unexpectedly realistic version of the real drama between an afflicted teacher and his pupils. Gosling delivers the performance of the year with subtlety and regret, creating an atmosphere of despair and tangled responsibility. Half Nelson is a beautiful effort with more complexity than one would expect.

4. Shortbus

The so-called "hardcore" film of the year, Shortbus is a beautiful gem of a film exploring the interlinking lives of the sexually frustrated in New York City. Delving into personal troubles felt worldwide, Shortbus can be admired by anyone who has ever felt anything for anybody. The film has been railed for being near pornographic, but a film that has a central theme of openness and acceptance of one's body and its sexually capabilities certainly wouldn't take the hypocritical stance of being prudish with the topic of sex now would it? It is a beautiful medley of strange, wonderful, lonely, and ultimately fulfillment.

3. The Departed

Martin Scorsese is back, ladies and gentleman. For the first time since Goodfellas, I actually liked Scorsese. This high-speed, high-tension film is so intense that it's almost too much to handle sometimes. If you find a way to relax during the last thirty minutes of the movie, you are not human. But The Departed is not just a high energy joy ride, it is the stuff of real life. With surprising moments of drama, tension, and pain, The Departed transcends the realm of crime thriller and becomes something by itself all together, without a category to exist in. Vera Farmiga delivers the most under appreciated performance of the year, and acts as the sole female to bring conscience to such a violent and heavy headed film. From its unexpected hilarity to its very expected violence, The Departed has it all, and is not afraid to show it.

2. Little Children

Little Children is proof that brilliant film making will be unrecognized if the campaign isn't right. This powerhouse satirical melodrama, mostly recognized for acting and its screenplay, is one of the defining films of 2006. In a time where more and more adults are acting foolishly, and thus regretting the decisions that make up their lives, Little Children seems much more important than other films. With a bone chilling performance, Jackie Earle Haley keeps this movie from being the adultery-filled will-he-leave-her-or-wont-he movie audiences have seen for years. Little Children tosses together a medley of characters with such a degree of self-involvement , that by the end of the movie the difference between the actual children who play on the playground and the adults is entirely clear, and it does so beautifully. Teaching us, with glorified satire, that life is responsibility, not entitlement.

1. Children Of Men

2006's best film is, without question, Children Of Men. Clive Owen stars in this sci-fi thinker set in 2027, 18 years after the last child was born on Earth. The world is in shambles, but the pregnancy of one young girl brings hope and power into the hands of the protagonists. At first, Children Of Men is simply intriguing, but soon becomes so much more. With the subtle inter-play of all-too-real war zones, we are forced to visualize a future where destruction and chaos is not only prevalent, it is the norm. Children Of Men, is the powerful political force that other films like V For Vendetta tried to be. It teaches us to be human and enjoy that humanity because our actions might one day, for the first time in history, bring an era where the future is not endless. By creating a world where disarray and misconduct are caused supernaturally, Children Of Men makes the War we wage today seem not only pointless, but ridiculous simply because it is a path that was chosen and taken knowingly.With a beautiful score, haunting screenplay, an creepy art direction/cinematography, Children Of Men is an aching achievement of film that never becomes preachy, but just strives to show the importance of life inside the microcosm of sterility. Brilliant.

Update...

Will have Top Ten tonight....

....finally

Sorry....

I know I had a pretty tight schedule for this week, but I couldn't really update because believe it or not...Austin, TX has been under an inch of ice for about two days. I just got internet back, so I will catch up as soon as possible.

I am ditching the Worst Films piece and the Readers Choice piece as well. The others will still be completed, but I need a little time.

Sorry for the inconvenience.

Globe Predictions

Keeping it short...

PICTURE DRAMA: The Departed
Alternate: Babel
PICTURE COMEDY/MUSICAL: Dreamgirls
Alternate: Borat
ACTRESS DRAMA: Helen Mirren
Alternate: Judi Dench
ACTRESS COMEDY: Meryl Streep
Alternate: Beyonce Knowles
ACTOR DRAMA: Forest Whitaker
Alternate: Peter O'Toole
ACTOR COMEDY: Sacha Baron Cohen
Alternate: Aaron Eckhart
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Hudson
Alternate: Rinko Kikuchi
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Eddie Murphy
Alternate: Brad Pitt
DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese
Alternate: Eastwood (Letters)
ANIMATED FEATURE: Happy Feet
Alternate: Cars
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Letters From Iwo Jima
Alternate: Pan's Labyrinth
SCREENPLAY: Babel
Alternate: The Queen
ORIGINAL SCORE: Babel
Alternate: The Fountain
ORIGINAL SONG: "Listen"
Alternate: "Never Gonna Break My Faith"

Top Ten Films Later Tonight...

The Guilds Have Spoken...

Well, things certainly took a turn after all of the Guilds released their nominations. Who would have thought that in one week, Clint Eastwood's films...both of them...would suddenly be shut out and thus severely hurt in the Oscar race?

Also, who would have thought that Babel would suddenly become a serious contender for a win in the Best Picture category, especially if it takes home the Globe like a lot of people are saying it will. A Globe shock over The Departed will make Babel a serious contender with Scorsese's film and the ever-waning Dreamgirls.

I will be adding Screenplay categories and will do a complete prediction (including techs) before the Oscars. The WGA tossed some confusion in the mix with its nomination of Borat in the Adapted category instead of the Original category. If the AMPAS ate this film up like many think it did, then we could see Borat nominated in the Adapted category, pushing out much more deserving films like Children of Men, Little Children, or Thank You For Smoking.

Things that would be surprises that I would like to see happen:

Best Picture for Children of Men
Best Director for Del Toro
Best Actor for Clive Owen
Best Actress WIN for Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor for Ben Affleck
Best Supporting Actress for either Emily Blunt or Toni Collette

With the nods in the Guild world being finished, it appears like these things won't happen, which is why they would be surprises.

Here is the schedule for the next week:

Monday: Top Ten Films of 2006
Tuesday: Worst Films of 2006
Wednesday: 1st Annual Opened Envelope Awards
Thursday: Reader's Choice Awards
Friday: Final Breakdown of Predictions

You might have realized that Thursday is the announcement for Reader's Choice. This means that you, as readers...need to choose. Please give a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for each of the major six categories...I would love if you guys included screenplay, but if it is too much then don't worry about it.

ROCK IT!