Question To The Readers

I am getting kind of tired of the Oscar pundits of the web telling me what public opinion is, so I thought I would ask you guys a question directly. It seems like a more direct way to gauge what is and isn't popular or what does or does not have public backing. If this is successful, I will probably keep this up every Tuesday, and as the race continues the questions will get more and more specific. Let me know.

Question:

What is the one film or performance that is truly underrated?

ISA Nods.

Could be one of many "In honor of..." nods Robert Altman could receive. Happy to see recognition for The Painted Veil and A Guide To Recognizing.... Helps Little Miss Sunshine and Half Nelson the most though. Go Shareeka!


SPECIAL DISTINCTION AWARD
David Lynch and Laura Dern

BEST FEATURE
American Gun
The Dead Girl
Half Nelson
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan’s Labyrinth

BEST DIRECTOR
Robert Altman - A Prairie Home Companion
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine
Ryan Fleck - Half Nelson
Karen Moncrieff - The Dead Girl
Steven Soderbergh - Bubble

BEST FIRST FEATURE

Day Night Day Night
Man Push Cart
The Motel
Sweet Land
Wristcutters: A Love Story

BEST SCREENPLAY

Neil Burger - The Illusionist
Nicole Holofcener - Friends with Money
Ron Nyswaner - The Painted Veil
Jason Reitman - Thank You For Smoking
Jeff Stanzler - Sorry, Haters

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

Michael Arndt - Little Miss Sunshine
Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck - Half Nelson
Goran Dukic - Wristcutters: A Love Story
Dito Montiel - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints
Gabrielle Zevin - Conversations with Other Women

BEST FEMALE LEAD

Shareeka Epps - Half Nelson
Catherine O’Hara - For Your Consideration
Elizabeth Reaser - Sweet Land
Michelle Williams - Land of Plenty
Robin Wright Penn - Sorry, Haters

BEST MALE LEAD

Aaron Eckhart - Thank You For Smoking
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Edward Norton - The Painted Veil
Ahmad Razvi - Man Push Cart
Forest Whitaker - American Gun

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Melonie Diaz - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints
Marcia Gay Harden - American Gun
Mary Beth Hurt - The Dead Girl
Frances McDormand - Friends with Money
Amber Tamblyn - Stephanie Daley

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Raymond J. Barry - Steel City
Daniel Craig - Infamous
Paul Dano - Little Miss Sunshine
Channing Tatum - A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arin Crumley - Four Eyed Monsters
Anthony Dod Mantle - Brothers of the Head
Guillermo Navarro - Pan’s Labyrinth
Aaron Platt - Wild Tigers I Have Known
Michael Simmonds - Man Push Cart

BEST DOCUMENTARY

A Lion in the House
My Country, My Country
The Road to Guantanamo
The Trials of Darryl Hunt
You’re Gonna Miss Me

BEST FOREIGN FILM

12:08 East of Bucharest (Romania)
The Blossoming of Maximo Oliveros (Philippines)
Chronicle of an Escape (Argentina)
Days of Glory (France/Morocco/Algeria/Belgium)
The Lives of Others (Germany)

Check out the full list here

Forgot To Mention...

Maggie Gyllenhaal as lead actress in Sherrybaby

and...

Ken Watanabe as lead actor in Letters From Iwo Jima


With Gyllenhaal's recent Stockholm win and the crazy buzz about Letters, consider these two very strong darkhorses for nominations and maybe more. But for now they remain in the FYC category.

Final Major Category Predicts

...At least until the precursors weigh in.

We have a little less than a month before the Globes announce their noms and I thought it would be nice to finish out the predicts of the top six categories (acting, director, picture) before the rush of awards come out. There will be people we don't expect, and people we do, but it should be interesting.

Picture

Dreamgirls - It's first official rave review came out. Hundreds to follow.
The Departed - Box office + Scorsese + Reviews = locked nom.
The Queen - It's this year's Capote but better. Nominate it.
Babel - I'm concerned about this one. Might be too "loved-it-or-hated-it" for a nom, but has strong buzz right now.
Little Miss Sunshine - The category is too depressing, we NEED this.

Director

Martin Scorsese - The Departed - See above + overdue = Winner.
Bill Condon - Dreamgirls - Film is too big not to give Condon the nod, but the win is another issue.
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Babel - Film may be divisive, but the directing is solid.
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima - NO for Flags, YES for Letters. Academy loves him.
Paul Greengrass - United 93 - Feels like he is still sort of buzzing, and might be the film's only chance.

Actor

Peter O'Toole - Venus - Due and raved. People love a comeback story.
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness - Everyone loves Smith, and the movie looks like feel good bait a la Finding Neverland
Forest Whitaker - The Last King Of Scotland - Buzz has faded, but it was strong enough to last him.
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson - Critic awards WILL love him, and is a MAJOR darkhorse to win if he has the right momentum with precursors.
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed - They better declare him lead soon, or Aaron Eckhardt and Matt Damon will take this spot.

Actress

Helen Mirren - The Queen - Yeah. There is no stopping her.
Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal - AMPAS loves her so much they would lick her shoes. Plus she plays creepy...and that works if done well.
Kate Winslet - Little Children - Buzz is gone, but will it come back when the film releases wider?
Penelope Cruz - Volver - Buzz has remained consistent and the only things holding her back are subtitles.
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada - Continues to reinvent herself, and AMPAS continues to reward her. She's in.

Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt - Babel - Big stars are rewarded when they actually act.
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls - Flashy role that no one else can offer in this race.
Michael Sheen - The Queen - Beautiful performance powerful enough not to get trampled by Mirren's talent. He kept up with her, which is impressive.
Jack Nicholson - The Departed - Umm...he was a lock after the first frame.
Ben Affleck - Hollywoodland - That's right. Write it down.

Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls - She filled the role's shoes according to early notices. This American Idolist is Not Going anywhere.
Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal - Previous winner with a high profile year and a performance in an acting-central film opposite Dench makes for a nomination.
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine - Let's hope HFPA doesn't screw things up by putting her in lead.
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel - Up and coming talent in a role so powerful she commands the film without a single word. A darkhorse to win.
Adriana Barraza - Babel - Represents the pure sentiment of the film. Powerful and painful. Brilliant.

There they are, and I would love to know what you think. COMMENT.

Supporting Updates

Supporting Acting noms are always a little bit tricky, and can be confusing as hell. You never know if Judi Dench can win for an eight-minute role, or if William Hurt will get even get nominated for an equally brief role. Damn the power of Judi Dench! This year is no different with Babel's multiple supporting possibilities and Dreamgirls's buzz for someone who has never acted in a major picture before. So here's the run-down, and excuse me for not being so elaborate as the leading categories. There are simply...too many actors. Excuse the Amadeus reference.

Supporting Actor:

Jack Nicholson The Departed
Eddie Murphy Dreamgirls
Alan Arkin Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley Little Children
Brad Pitt Babel

Here's the thing, the race is pretty open except for Mr. Nicholson. By switching to the supporting category, he almost locks himself into a nomination and possibly a trip to the podium.

Murphy's flashy character is exactly the kind supporting categories love to recognize, and AMPAS loves to nominate actors they once thought were going to be a phenomenal presence at the Kodak over and over again.

Alan Arkin stands the be the only man from Little Miss Sunshine to get nominated, despite equally brilliant performances from Carell and Kinnear. Never underestimate the power of a comeback story.

Jackie Earle Haley is my out-there-but-not-so-out-there-pick with his performance in Little Children. The role is baity as hell, and he is a child star coming into his talent all over again. Again, never underestimate a comeback.

Pitt is an interesting story. He is getting raves for a film that was once thought to be a critical darling, but stumbled out of the block. The question seems to be: will his performance overcome the unmet high expectations? I think so. He is present in the headlines, and that never hurts. Plus, he's pretty. Who doesn't want to see him gussied up come Oscar night?

Here are the little more far-fetched For Your Consideration-ers:

Michael Sheen The Queen
Ben Affleck Hollywoodland
James Cromwell The Queen (I am pulling for his beautiful performance over Sheen's)
Djimon Hounsou Blood Diamond
Stanley Tucci The Devil Wears Prada


Now for the ladies!!! Even more confusing. Ugh....

Abigail Breslin Little Miss Sunshine
Cate Blanchett Notes On A Scandal
Rinku Kinkuchi Babel
Vera Farmiga The Departed
Phyllis Sommerville Little Children

That's right. I am not predicting Jennifer Hudson! Until the movie is reviewed, or, you know, seen at all, I remain skeptical about the American Idol-er. But let's break it down now.

Abigail Breslin is the powerhouse backbone of the indie-hit Little Miss Sunshine and deserves to take home a statue just for having a powerful and commanding presence for a role that could have fallen flat as hell if anyone else played it. Yeah, even Dakota Fanning couldn't be that cute.

Blanchett has the fortune of starring opposite Oscar favorite Judi Dench, and the trailer is hot like fire too, which generates massive buzz. The role looks risky, conflicted and baity too. It doesn't hurt that she has an Oscar already, and the snubbed status for her nomination for Elizabeth (Stupid Gwen Paltrow).

Kinkuchi is storming onto the Oscar scene for her tragically beautiful portrayal of a deaf-mute in Babel. She's being called the stand out of the film, and in a movie with Pitt and Blanchett, that means a lot.

Farmiga probably won't get nominated, but she is the only female in what I believe is an Oscar Best Picture winner and she's so underrated. With a character that can be identified with, she delivers a performance that is easily the most human this year's race has seen. She is real, and reality should be recognized.

If Jackie Earle Haley is scary in Little Children then Phyllis Somerville is heartbreaking. After reading the book, she (not Winslet's character) is the one you feel for. The mother of a sex offender is a baity role to say the least, and if she doesn't get vast critic and guild precursor recognition, I will be shocked.

Rounding out the top ten:

Jennifer Hudson Dreamgirls (I had to cave a little bit)
Adriana Barraza Babel
Catherine O'Hara For Your Consideration
Carmen Maura Volver
Shareeka Epps Half Nelson

Changes in leading categories:

Actor stays the same pretty much, but I am putting Sacha Baron Cohen in for the hell of it.

For Actress, I hate to say that Benning has dropped from the race because critics panned the film like no other, and Judi Dench is simply too powerful to be ignored.

The Question of Dreamgirls, The Case for Borat

When trying to think of a topic for this week's column, I spent hours surfing the web for a semblance of importance concerning the Oscar race. The blogs all over the net are running dry, due to very slow couple of weeks. Until Borat roped in some 27 million in an under 1,000 theater count, and a staggering 96% RottenTomatoes rating (100% COTC), making it one of the best reviewed films of the year, falling in line with Oscar contenders The Queen, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine.

So does Oscar have anything to offer for Borat?

It seems to be the best screened film of the year, and the only internet buzzed movie that actually translated to the box office like Snakes On A Plane could not. Yet only David Poland of Movie City News was thinking that Sacha Baron Cohen could be considered for his acting.

The Academy has nominated before comedies, but usually only the high-brow type of comedy that Borat doesn't appear to be. You can bet this genre comedy will get ignored, despite its critical appraisal, satirical pointedness, and box office success.

But I find it interesting that a movie no one has seen, save 20 screened minutes to generate buzz, is seen as the far and away front-runner now that Flags Of Our Fathers stumbled. Dreamgirls has everything that Chicago had: social commentary, flashy numbers, fleshy characters, and an opportunity for stars in Hollywood to prove themselves.

The difference? Dreamgirls has it on paper. That's it. Certainly the case can be made that "clear frontrunners" in November tend to fail more than succeed. Shall we remember the intense Best Picture buzz for Memoirs Of A Geisha last year? Not to mention the fact that two "frontrunner" movies-from-Broadway have flopped in each of the last two years: The Producers and Phantom Of The Opera. Can't we wait until we see it, or hear anything from people who have seen it?

The flashy Tony-winner will start screening in the next few weeks, and we will begin to see the true colors of this film. It is my opinion that the success or failure of the film rides on Jennifer Hudson's shoulders. Effie steals the show, and if Hudson doesn't rock out, the film won't have the legs to carry it to a win, much less a nomination.

I'm not ready to put trust in a film that is relying on a sixth-place American Idoler to carry it. But I hope I'm wrong.

Another Leading Lady?

Last year, Ziyi Zhang could have been the first Asian to be nominated in the lead category for actresses for her role in Memoirs Of A Geisha but she fell short. This year, one of her co-stars, Gong Li, could snag a nod herself.

Sony Pictures Classic annouced that they are launching a campaign for Gong Li and director Zhang Yimou for their work on Curse Of The Golden Flower, paving the way for what could be major buzz for Gong Li, and the Academy's first Asian nomination in the category.

But with the likes of Mirren, Winslet, and Benning in the race, it will be an uphill battle for Gong Li to be honored in what is becoming a very close and competitive category.