The Question of Dreamgirls, The Case for Borat

When trying to think of a topic for this week's column, I spent hours surfing the web for a semblance of importance concerning the Oscar race. The blogs all over the net are running dry, due to very slow couple of weeks. Until Borat roped in some 27 million in an under 1,000 theater count, and a staggering 96% RottenTomatoes rating (100% COTC), making it one of the best reviewed films of the year, falling in line with Oscar contenders The Queen, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine.

So does Oscar have anything to offer for Borat?

It seems to be the best screened film of the year, and the only internet buzzed movie that actually translated to the box office like Snakes On A Plane could not. Yet only David Poland of Movie City News was thinking that Sacha Baron Cohen could be considered for his acting.

The Academy has nominated before comedies, but usually only the high-brow type of comedy that Borat doesn't appear to be. You can bet this genre comedy will get ignored, despite its critical appraisal, satirical pointedness, and box office success.

But I find it interesting that a movie no one has seen, save 20 screened minutes to generate buzz, is seen as the far and away front-runner now that Flags Of Our Fathers stumbled. Dreamgirls has everything that Chicago had: social commentary, flashy numbers, fleshy characters, and an opportunity for stars in Hollywood to prove themselves.

The difference? Dreamgirls has it on paper. That's it. Certainly the case can be made that "clear frontrunners" in November tend to fail more than succeed. Shall we remember the intense Best Picture buzz for Memoirs Of A Geisha last year? Not to mention the fact that two "frontrunner" movies-from-Broadway have flopped in each of the last two years: The Producers and Phantom Of The Opera. Can't we wait until we see it, or hear anything from people who have seen it?

The flashy Tony-winner will start screening in the next few weeks, and we will begin to see the true colors of this film. It is my opinion that the success or failure of the film rides on Jennifer Hudson's shoulders. Effie steals the show, and if Hudson doesn't rock out, the film won't have the legs to carry it to a win, much less a nomination.

I'm not ready to put trust in a film that is relying on a sixth-place American Idoler to carry it. But I hope I'm wrong.