Complete Acting Updates!

Bout time I overhauled these categories. With the SAGs, Globes, and BFCAs releasing their nominations, we have just about all the information we can get on the acting categories. The ballots for Oscar nominees will already be in when any of these awards are given out, so their is no real point in waiting.

Best Actor

Forest Whitaker The Last King Of Scotland
Will Smith The Pursuit of Happyness
Peter O'Toole Venus
Ryan Gosling Half Nelson
Leonardo Dicaprio The Departed

The Breakdown...

Whitaker is the obvious front runner with almost everyone critical precursor and the nods at the majors backing his performance as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Many are saying that this feels a lot like the runaway victory the Hoffman had last year, but don't underestimate the power of the older AMPAS voter. Will Smith could upset this race with a touchy-feely performance in The Pursuit of Happyness that Oscar voters just tend to melt over. Peter O'Toole is locked in for a nod here and could upset as well under the pretense of being overdue. He's been nominated 7 times and never won. Gosling got the SAG and BFCA nod he needed to stay in the race and his likelihood for a nomination can be described as being the weakest lock a lock can be. The only reason the Dicaprio is so low on this list is because of the deadly beasts of category confusion and split voting. SAG honored his lead performance in Blood Diamond and his performance The Departed...but in the supporting category. Many say his role in the much more popular The Departed will get the nod over his silly accented performance in Blood Diamond, but if voters split their decision over which film he should be nominated for then Leo could be shut out of the category completely.

Important: If Dicaprio gets shut out then look for a surprise nod to either Ken Watanabe, Aaron Eckhart, or Sacha Baron Cohen.


Best Actress

Helen Mirren The Queen
Judi Dench Notes On A Scandal
Meryl Streep The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet Little Children
Penelope Cruz Volver

The Breakdown...

Really nothing to talk about here in terms of nominations. The category is boring with little room for surprise. One can only hope that Toni Collete could get a nod here, but that is VERY VERY unlikely. These ladies are locked, but the win is not nearly as obvious as people think. Consider the case of Daniel Day Lewis and Adrien Brody a few years ago. People get tired of the same person winning over and over. I'm just saying.


Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson Dreamgirls
Cate Blanchett Notes On A Scandal
Rinko Kikuchi Babel
Adriana Barraza Babel
Abigail Breslin Little Miss Sunshine

The Breakdown...

Well the top three of this category are locked for nods. Hudson, Blanchett, and Kikuchi have shared the precursor love, but Hudson still looks to be the frontrunner for her show-stealing performance as Effie White in Dreamgirls. Blanchett is looking for her second Oscar in three years, but Kikuchi is breaking into the scene for a powerhouse performance as a deaf-mute in Babel. The complexity of her character is jarring and how an actress can steal focus away from Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett without saying a word is beyond me. Barraza has the heart of the movie though, and the Babel girls are looking to nominated as a pair like they have been for the BFCA, SAG, and Globe. Breslin really is an iffy prediction right now seeing as the consensus is that Catherine O'Hara will get the fifth spot. But I think Bresling benefits not only from her SAG nod, but also O'Hara's snub at both the Globes and SAGs. Breslin gets stronger with her SAG nod, but more importantly with the weakening of her competition.


Supporting Actor

Eddie Murphy Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley Little Children
Alan Arkin Little Miss Sunshine
Djimon Hounsou Blood Diamond


The Breakdown...

This is easily the hardest category to predict. Murphy is the only real lock here since he is the only one nominated at all three of the majors. Nicholson missed out on the SAG but some can argue that happened because Dicaprio pushed him out. Nicholson will get the nomination because AMPAS loves him more than the HFPA love Renee Zelwegger or Scarlett Johansson. They had him announce Best Picture last year for no reason other than they thought he would look cool...he's a lock too. After this...it gets pretty confusing. Jackie Earle Haley is the critical darling of the year and has six awards to back that up. The role is baity as hell, he has the SAG nod, and he is a great comeback story too. I think he's in. Alan Arkin fits the mold of this category exceedingly well. This is the category where voters feel alright giving the award away to someone who is "overdue." They awarded George Clooney when he didn't deserve to win, and the same goes for Morgan Freeman, and Tim Robbins of the previous years. His performance is not one of the best supporting performance of the year, or even that movie, but he will get the nomination. Finally, Djimon Hounsou will shock a lot of people come announcement time by grabbing the fifth spot away from Pitt, Affleck, Sheen, Beach, and Wahlberg. He won the NBR, got a BFCA nod, and a SAG as well. His performance is one of the only good things about that film, but it is great. He should be honored here like he was for In America a few years ago.



This is so freakin exciting, and barring any major shifts in buzz or category shifting, these should be near my final predictions for nominations. I might get nervous about Supporting Actor and change it up, but who knows?

Comments? Questions? Feel Free...