Predictions Update: Best Picture

This race is started to become exceedingly predictable, as are most categories around this time of year. Most pundits can accurately guess four nominees that are considered locked, and then comes the question of the coveted fifth spot. Since discussing the locked nature of The Departed, The Queen, Dreamgirls, and Letters From Iwo Jima is pretty much a boring affair, and would not make for an interesting entry, I thought a profile of the few films grasping for that fifth slot would be a little more interesting.

Babel

The HFPA certainly gave this film a huge boost when they released their Golden Globe nominations and Babel is trying to ride that wave all the way to the nomination ceremony. However, I don't think Oscar voters are stupid enough not to realize that the Hollywood Foreign Press is obviously going to love a Hollywood made movie that happens to be set in four different foreign countries. The film screams Golden Globe, but its divisive "love it hate it" nature will keep it from taking a slot in the top five. Ultimately the film will have the same kind of support that 21 Grams did: huge kudos for the acting, a definite screenplay nomination, along with a possible win with score.

Flags Of Our Fathers

Really even mentioning this film in the top five has become a laughable affair. At one time, Flags was the film that fight Dreamgirls for the top spot...and then it released. Mediocre critical response, awful box office generation, and no mention outside the Satellite nominations in precursors keep this film from entering the top five. I even pondered whether or not I should even mention this film in this entry because a nomination for Flags would signal the end in my Oscar predicting career in the form of a boycott.

Little Miss Sunshine

Now it comes to the serious contenders. Little Miss Sunshine feels like a mix of Munich and Capote of last year: a smaller film that looked stronger as the awards season continued yet is still in question because of a few fatal flaws in the film. While it is charming as all hell, the fact of the matter is that it is not the "comedy" that people think it is. It feels like The Royal Tenenbaums redux: a well-done, underachieving, dark, slightly comedic look into a family and their journey for fulfillment. However, Little Miss Sunshine has been running the most creative campaign the Oscar race has seen in years: a yellow VW has been driving around Santa Monica with "Little Best Picture" plastered on the side. As we saw with Terrence Howard last year, the best campaign wins when it comes to nominations.

United 93

But what about Paul Greengrass's extraordinary docu-depiction of the flight that fought back? United 93 would be considered the critical darling of the year if The Departed didn't exist. It has certainly put its footprint in the critics awards with winning New York, Utah, Dallas, etc, but the fact of the matter is that not many people saw the movie outside of those critics. It is the opinion of this writer that United 93 should be considered a contender for winning best picture, but unfortunately most of the consensus is that the movie is a better directed film than a film all together. I would not be surprised if Greengrass scored a nomination for Director, but the film missed as a whole.

Ultimately the question is: what is more important to Oscar voters, a well established campaign for a movie with a very strong fanbase, or better executed film that concentrates on a sensitive subject that has little following but stronger critical support?

In the end the best campaign wins, and Little Miss Sunshine will grab the nod.

Breakdown:

The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen