Best Actor

As always, this category is full of the best performances of the year despite gender or role size. It just so happens that great dynamic leading roles tend to be written for men. Not a good thing, but a true thing.

THE PLAYERS
1. JOHNNY DEPP - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street
2. DANIEL DAY LEWIS - There Will Be Blood
3. GEORGE CLOONEY - Michael Clayton
4. EMILE HIRSCH - Into The Wild
5. RYAN GOSLING - Lars And The Real Girl

THE CHASERS
1. Viggo Mortensen - Easern Promises
2. Denzel Washington - American Gangster
3. James McAvoy - Atonement
4. Tom Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War

Though Sweeney Todd might miss out on the Best Picture nod (if SAG tells us anything), Depp is a sure thing. He has incredible industry respect and tends to be nominated if he breathes the right way. It doesn't hurt that he surprises with a strong singing voice, is paired with an overdue director, and has never won before. I don't give the SAG snub any bearing...but that's only because it's Johnny Depp.

The only actor that will give Depp any competition is the veteran tour-de-force of Daniel Day Lewis. I would place him at the top of the list, but DDL has an Oscar already, while Depp does not. Nevertheless, Lewis has rave reviews, the most precursors, and nods from BFCA, GG, and SAG. A sure thing.

I don't necessarily understand the craze that is George Clooney in Michael Clayton. He will be nominated, but I don't feel like the performance is all that impressive, and that maybe he is getting notice for being himself in a decent and smart drama. His supporting and directing nods of a few years ago were more impressive, but Clooney is the NBR winner and a shoe-in with Depp and Lewis.

This is where things get a little more confusing. Hirsch got snubbed by the Globes, but supported by the BFCA and SAG in a big way. Considering that the HFPA tends to embrace the stars (to put it nicely), it is easily understood that Denzel would beat out performances like Hirsch's indie foray. Also, go ahead and factor in the massive support that Into The Wild had at the SAGs and BFCAs and what are we left with? Hirsch, as a "breakout performance" type nominee.

A few months ago, no one would give real notice to Gosling's weird-yet-impressive turn in Lars And The Real Girl. But now, with a GG, BFCA, and SAG nomination under his belt, the youngster who broke onto the scene last year with a knockout performance in Half Nelson is looking to be nominated for the second time in two years.

This category is so incredibly competitive this year, that The Chasers would make a great list on their own. Viggo Mortensen could, and probably will, upset Gosling for the fifth spot. He has recognition from all of the majors, but given his previous snubs and the low exposure of Eastern Promises, I just don't feel like he will ever get nominated until the year he is going to have enough to actually win. Washington never fails to disappoint these days, but his fate depends on the mood of AMPAS. Is it an indie Brokeback-Capote year or a Seabiscuit-Master And Commander year? If American Gangster is in, there is no telling what might happen. McAvoy has the exact same situation: if Atonement dominates, he will get in over someone more deserving. And finally, never underestimate Tom Hanks. He can do anything. The end.

I cannot express how impressing this list is. It's a great year for film, and AMPAS can't go wrong with five of these nine...even Tom Hanks.

Later Players.