Supporting Actress Updates

The race for supporting actress is a crowded one filled with baity roles like a desperate mother, an under-the-surface insecure power lawyer, a bitchy little sister, and even Bob Dylan. The choices certainly are fun this year, but the race has become exceedingly boring with three of the possibilities being from the same film, and really only one or two open spots.


THE PLAYERS
1. AMY RYAN - Gone Baby Gone
2. TILDA SWINTON - Michael Clayton
3. CATE BLANCHETT - I'm Not There
4. CATHERINE KEENER - Into The Wild
5. SAOIRSE RONAN - Atonement

THE CHASERS
1. Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
2. Ruby Dee - American Gangster
3. Julia Roberts - Charlie Wilson's War

The only women who are actually "locked" into this race (as locked as anyone can be at this point) are Ryan, Swinton, and Blanchett. Ryan has taken the precursors by a storm only a little less powerful than that of the Helen Mirren hurricane of last year. She has snagged wins from Los Angeles, New York, The National Board Review, and an oodle of regional wins on top of that. Not to mention being nominated at the Globes and SAG.

Which is really all Swinton and Blanchett have going for them. Each of them have stolen a few regional critics awards from Ryan, but not enough to usurp Ryan's critical reign. Blanchett is an Oscar golden child and can do no wrong (see: her possible best actress nod despite a critically panned film), so it is very likely that she will be on the short list. Swinton is a respected actress who has never quite gotten her due, but the Academy desperately wants to give it to her. C'mon she was in the running for Narnia a few years ago! Michael Clayton gives her the perfect venue to stand out, and she does exactly that as the dynamically intriguing "Karon Crowder." Both Blanchett and Swinton received kudos from the Globes and SAG.


Ronan and Keener round out the list in the typical "who is else is getting runner up or one-time nodded?" category. Keener receives the SAG nom while Ronan didn't, and it was the other way around for the Globes, which was strange since SAG typically goes younger before any other precursor. Knowing this, I think Ronan is the most likely to get bumped from the list and replaced by either one of her film counterparts (probably Redgrave) or Julia Roberts/Ruby Dee for Charlie Wilson's War and American Gangster, respectively. Dee needs American Gangster to get a BP nod for any hope, and Roberts just needs blind luck or a Golden Globe miracle. It feels like Keener is in though. I mean, she got the nod in 2005 for a less than outstanding performance in Capote, so who is to stop her this year?

The race has definitely thinned down, and would have been more interesting if Sweeney Todd's Helena Bonham Carter would have been campaigned supporting instead of lead, but it's whatever. I've moved on.

Later Players.