Supporting Actor is a race much like the Best Actress race of last year: a race with a clear top five, a clear winner, and a very slim chance for surprise. Fortunately, out of the top five performances, there isn't a single disappointing one, which is always nice. Let's break it down.
THE PLAYERS
1. JAVIER BARDEM - No Country For Old Men
2. TOM WILKINSON - Michael Clayton
3. CASEY AFFLECK - The Assassination Of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
4. PHILLIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - Charlie Wilson's War
5. HAL HOLBROOK - Into The Wild
THE CHASERS
John Travolta - Hairspray
Tommy Lee Jones - No Country For Old Men
Max von Sydow - The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
No one can stop Javier Bardem. Plain. And. Simple. He is a respected, foreign actor playing a truly baity psychotic role. And AMPAS loves to love scary done well (See: Kathy Bates). He has been destroying the regional critic awards and has a BFCA, GG, and SAG nod. He's in. It's just the way it is.
Tom Wilkinson and Casey Affleck started the season the same way: as a possible nomination threat despite a cloud of suspicion and uncertainly looming over their heads. But fortunately for both, good precursor showings have helped to calm the concern. Affleck is one of the break-out performers of the year when you combine this performance with his work in Gone Baby Gone. On the other hand, Wilkinson doesn't need to break out. He's good, and everyone knows it. He probably should have won for his stunning work in In The Bedroom, and some might say this nod would be an apology, but "some" would only say that if his performance as the manic-depressive born again power litigator wasn't so breathtaking. Each actor has BFCA, GG, and SAG nods.
Holbrook and Hoffman will get in with the help of industry respect. Holbrook has never been recognized and reviews have secluded him as stand-out. He's the feel good "it can happen to anyone" story of the year, much like Jackie Earle Haley last year. Hoffman, however, dominates on a completely different kind of respect. He's just a phenomenal character actor in a pretty good movie. He's the Blanchett of the male categories, and like Blanchett he can do no wrong. Holbrook has a BFCA and a SAG nod, and Hoffman has a BFCA nod to go with his GG nomination.
The top five are pretty much concrete, but Travolta or von Sydow could get in as a comeback/veteran vote, and Tommy Lee Jones received incredible help from the SAG nomination, but still remains unlikely to upset any of the top five.
Alright, that's that.
Later Players.
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