FYC Ad Of The Day

A Mighty Heart

Well, I just got back from a wonderful family wedding and I will not be posting again today other than what I have to say here, and an FYC ad.

I finally got around to watching A Mighty Heart and as a whole, it is seriously flawed. Fractured editing, poor camera angles, emotionless lighting, and an overall underwhelming directorial sentiment are just a few of the technical problems with the film. It has some incredible moments, and I will give it that, but it seemed to be trying so hard to become an investigative preachy morality tale of differences and misunderstanding that it ended up becoming a lesson in the art of alienating international struggles as a simple plot device.

That being said, Jolie is pretty much stellar in this film. I have not seen her dig into a character so much since Girl, Interrupted, for which she won a Supporting Actress award. She was strong yet vulnerable in the same way Julianne Moore was in Far From Heaven, while displaying complete devastation in the style of Naomi Watts in 21 Grams.

I believe she should be nominated for this performance, but it is very possible she could be snubbed. If she does not get a nod at least, it is the fault of the director for pointing the camera in the wrong direction. Too many shots were focused on the recipient of Jolie's lines instead of on her. I think a lot of desperation and drive were missed from her because of those botched moments.

One hell of an emotional breakdown at the end though.

For these reasons...I have decided to bump Amy Adams from the top five on the sidebar and give it to Jolie. I don't think AMPAS can ignore this performance. I mean, the Globes, SAG, and BFCA couldn't...

Film: C+
Jolie: A-

Later Players.

FYC Ad Of The Day

There Will Be Blood

Boxofficemojo is reporting an opening weekend performance of 186,000 for There Will Be Blood. Seems like it underperformed? Well considering that the movie showed in only two theaters with a per theater average of 93,000, it would seem like there is a level of anticipation that has not been seen since Brokeback Mountain averaged 109,000 in 5 theaters.

There Will Be Blood is building momentum in a big way, and feels like a darkhorse to win this year. I know that No Country For Old Men is on a war path to victory, but when one film wins that much, upsets tend to happen (Raging Bull, Brokeback Mountain, Saving Private Ryan, Goodfellas etc).

Watch out now.

P.S. I am at a family wedding right now, so I will most likely not be able to post until tomorrow, but who knows maybe I'll get around to something tonight.

Later Players.

Poll Results

Alright kids, most of you thought that Atonement would get the most nominations this year, followed up with Sweeney Todd.

Interesting, considering both films received no attention at the SAGs, and Into The Wild lead the BFCAs and the SAGs. However, I agree with most of you. It might just be a hunch, but I think AMPAS will not be able to resists a beautifully shot, British, sprawling epic and the new Joe Wright project will grab a bunch of nods.

My vote: Atonement.

Check the new poll!

"YOU'VE CHANGED THINGS. FOREVER. THERE'S NO GOING BACK. SEE, TO THEM YOU'RE JUST A FREAK. LIKE ME!"

::Chills::

FYC Ad Of The Day

Best Actor

As always, this category is full of the best performances of the year despite gender or role size. It just so happens that great dynamic leading roles tend to be written for men. Not a good thing, but a true thing.

THE PLAYERS
1. JOHNNY DEPP - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street
2. DANIEL DAY LEWIS - There Will Be Blood
3. GEORGE CLOONEY - Michael Clayton
4. EMILE HIRSCH - Into The Wild
5. RYAN GOSLING - Lars And The Real Girl

THE CHASERS
1. Viggo Mortensen - Easern Promises
2. Denzel Washington - American Gangster
3. James McAvoy - Atonement
4. Tom Hanks - Charlie Wilson's War

Though Sweeney Todd might miss out on the Best Picture nod (if SAG tells us anything), Depp is a sure thing. He has incredible industry respect and tends to be nominated if he breathes the right way. It doesn't hurt that he surprises with a strong singing voice, is paired with an overdue director, and has never won before. I don't give the SAG snub any bearing...but that's only because it's Johnny Depp.

The only actor that will give Depp any competition is the veteran tour-de-force of Daniel Day Lewis. I would place him at the top of the list, but DDL has an Oscar already, while Depp does not. Nevertheless, Lewis has rave reviews, the most precursors, and nods from BFCA, GG, and SAG. A sure thing.

I don't necessarily understand the craze that is George Clooney in Michael Clayton. He will be nominated, but I don't feel like the performance is all that impressive, and that maybe he is getting notice for being himself in a decent and smart drama. His supporting and directing nods of a few years ago were more impressive, but Clooney is the NBR winner and a shoe-in with Depp and Lewis.

This is where things get a little more confusing. Hirsch got snubbed by the Globes, but supported by the BFCA and SAG in a big way. Considering that the HFPA tends to embrace the stars (to put it nicely), it is easily understood that Denzel would beat out performances like Hirsch's indie foray. Also, go ahead and factor in the massive support that Into The Wild had at the SAGs and BFCAs and what are we left with? Hirsch, as a "breakout performance" type nominee.

A few months ago, no one would give real notice to Gosling's weird-yet-impressive turn in Lars And The Real Girl. But now, with a GG, BFCA, and SAG nomination under his belt, the youngster who broke onto the scene last year with a knockout performance in Half Nelson is looking to be nominated for the second time in two years.

This category is so incredibly competitive this year, that The Chasers would make a great list on their own. Viggo Mortensen could, and probably will, upset Gosling for the fifth spot. He has recognition from all of the majors, but given his previous snubs and the low exposure of Eastern Promises, I just don't feel like he will ever get nominated until the year he is going to have enough to actually win. Washington never fails to disappoint these days, but his fate depends on the mood of AMPAS. Is it an indie Brokeback-Capote year or a Seabiscuit-Master And Commander year? If American Gangster is in, there is no telling what might happen. McAvoy has the exact same situation: if Atonement dominates, he will get in over someone more deserving. And finally, never underestimate Tom Hanks. He can do anything. The end.

I cannot express how impressing this list is. It's a great year for film, and AMPAS can't go wrong with five of these nine...even Tom Hanks.

Later Players.

Trailer Time!

Here are a couple of trailers to the mindlessly entertaining movies that I am looking forward to. Think of this as an "I am sorry I didn't post Best Actor last night, it will go up today, but enjoy these until then"...post.

Ya.

FYC Ad Of The Day

So...I Didn't Post On Christmas...

I'm only human people. I probably will have Best Actor up tonight, but for now enjoy the next post.

Visually Stunning. Can't wait to see it.

Later Players

FYC Ad Of The Day

Best Actress

This year has served as one of the strongest displays of talented women in recent memory. We have come a long way from last year when only five women were deserving of the nomination. Competition is great for the advancement of quality, so I am very happy to say that there are about nine women fighting for this year's top spots. HOORAY! TALENT!



THE PLAYERS
1. JULIE CHRISTIE - Away From Her
2. MARION COTILLARD - La Vie en Rose
3. ELLEN PAGE - Juno
4. CATE BLANCHETT - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
5. AMY ADAMS - Enchanted

THE CHASERS
1. Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
2. Keira Knightley - Atonement
3. Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street
4. Jodie Foster - The Brave One

Julie Christie is blowin' it up right now and she is paving a very dominant path to Oscar gold. She is the NBR winner and a Globe, SAG, and BFCA nominee to boot. She is a comeback actress, a previous winner, and she has a role that screams Oscar. Christie will be there come Oscar night, but she is not a shoe-in for the win.


Ellen Page and Marion Cotillard have been gaining major ground on Christie when it looked like she was going to win everything she set her eyes on. Cotillard has a huge fan/critical support base and also has the biopic thing going for her. But La Vie en Rose is a foreign film and she could get Penelope Cruz-ed: all love, but no Oscar. She looks good for a nomination though. Page, however, fills the role as "Oscar new-comer." Last year, she broke out with her graphic and startling performance in Hard Candy, and this year she follows that acclaim up with a likable and quirky performance that has the stuff to be remembered for a long time. She could upset with a win, but her youth could hurt her against the other experienced veterans in the race. Page and Cotillard are both BFCA, GG, and SAG nominees.


Blanchett is in a strange place. The Academy loves her like with the unconditional love a parent gives a child, but the movie she could be nominated for, in this category at least, was pretty much critically panned. She could lose the nomination for that reason, but I doubt it.

Amy Adams was simply a revelation in Enchanted, and without her, the film would have induced theater-wide migraines of annoyance. Instead, she made Enchanted feel like an hour and a half of smiles. She could get snubbed, since she is the only actress who got shut out at the SAGs that I have in the top five. Perhaps voters won't support two comedic performances in the same year, and Page will beat Adams out of the short list.

If this happens, Jolie or Knightley will snag the spot. Jolie has been nominated for all of the majors (BFCA, GG, and SAG) and I would put her in the top five, but her film came out too early, and I think AMPAS might want to avoid being accused of embracing stars rather than performances. Her performance is good, but others are better. Knightley will get in if AMPAS goes crazy for Atonement, but if the SAG snub shows us anything it's that Atonement is not nearly as strong as we thought.

Carter and Foster both give stunning performances but just don't have the drive or support that other women have. They both need a Globe win to survive, but that does not seem likely in any way, shape, or form.

P.S. If you didn't get that the HOORAY! TALENT! was an allusion to HOORAY! BEER! Red Stripe ads, then I don't know what to do. Your loss? I guess...

Later Players.

First A+ Of The Year

You will notice in the sidebar "Review" section that I have given my first A+ of the year to Gone Baby Gone. This film is an intense morality play of a thriller that not only kept me guessing, but kept me caring enough to guess more. The brothers Affleck shine, and show that each of them will be making movies for a very long time. Ed Harris is one of the most underrated performers of the year, and Amy Ryan deserves all the attention she is getting.

I was simply blown away by this film. It's gritty, fun, and, most importantly, not easily digested. Truly haunting. Congrats Mr. Affleck on a stellar directorial debut.

FYC Ad Of The Day

Supporting Actor Update

Supporting Actor is a race much like the Best Actress race of last year: a race with a clear top five, a clear winner, and a very slim chance for surprise. Fortunately, out of the top five performances, there isn't a single disappointing one, which is always nice. Let's break it down.

THE PLAYERS
1. JAVIER BARDEM - No Country For Old Men
2. TOM WILKINSON - Michael Clayton
3. CASEY AFFLECK - The Assassination Of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
4. PHILLIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - Charlie Wilson's War
5. HAL HOLBROOK - Into The Wild

THE CHASERS
John Travolta - Hairspray
Tommy Lee Jones - No Country For Old Men
Max von Sydow - The Diving Bell and The Butterfly

No one can stop Javier Bardem. Plain. And. Simple. He is a respected, foreign actor playing a truly baity psychotic role. And AMPAS loves to love scary done well (See: Kathy Bates). He has been destroying the regional critic awards and has a BFCA, GG, and SAG nod. He's in. It's just the way it is.

Tom Wilkinson and Casey Affleck started the season the same way: as a possible nomination threat despite a cloud of suspicion and uncertainly looming over their heads. But fortunately for both, good precursor showings have helped to calm the concern. Affleck is one of the break-out performers of the year when you combine this performance with his work in Gone Baby Gone. On the other hand, Wilkinson doesn't need to break out. He's good, and everyone knows it. He probably should have won for his stunning work in In The Bedroom, and some might say this nod would be an apology, but "some" would only say that if his performance as the manic-depressive born again power litigator wasn't so breathtaking. Each actor has BFCA, GG, and SAG nods.


Holbrook and Hoffman will get in with the help of industry respect. Holbrook has never been recognized and reviews have secluded him as stand-out. He's the feel good "it can happen to anyone" story of the year, much like Jackie Earle Haley last year. Hoffman, however, dominates on a completely different kind of respect. He's just a phenomenal character actor in a pretty good movie. He's the Blanchett of the male categories, and like Blanchett he can do no wrong. Holbrook has a BFCA and a SAG nod, and Hoffman has a BFCA nod to go with his GG nomination.

The top five are pretty much concrete, but Travolta or von Sydow could get in as a comeback/veteran vote, and Tommy Lee Jones received incredible help from the SAG nomination, but still remains unlikely to upset any of the top five.

Alright, that's that.

Later Players.

The Dark Knight Trailer

FYC Ad Of The Day

Supporting Actress Updates

The race for supporting actress is a crowded one filled with baity roles like a desperate mother, an under-the-surface insecure power lawyer, a bitchy little sister, and even Bob Dylan. The choices certainly are fun this year, but the race has become exceedingly boring with three of the possibilities being from the same film, and really only one or two open spots.


THE PLAYERS
1. AMY RYAN - Gone Baby Gone
2. TILDA SWINTON - Michael Clayton
3. CATE BLANCHETT - I'm Not There
4. CATHERINE KEENER - Into The Wild
5. SAOIRSE RONAN - Atonement

THE CHASERS
1. Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
2. Ruby Dee - American Gangster
3. Julia Roberts - Charlie Wilson's War

The only women who are actually "locked" into this race (as locked as anyone can be at this point) are Ryan, Swinton, and Blanchett. Ryan has taken the precursors by a storm only a little less powerful than that of the Helen Mirren hurricane of last year. She has snagged wins from Los Angeles, New York, The National Board Review, and an oodle of regional wins on top of that. Not to mention being nominated at the Globes and SAG.

Which is really all Swinton and Blanchett have going for them. Each of them have stolen a few regional critics awards from Ryan, but not enough to usurp Ryan's critical reign. Blanchett is an Oscar golden child and can do no wrong (see: her possible best actress nod despite a critically panned film), so it is very likely that she will be on the short list. Swinton is a respected actress who has never quite gotten her due, but the Academy desperately wants to give it to her. C'mon she was in the running for Narnia a few years ago! Michael Clayton gives her the perfect venue to stand out, and she does exactly that as the dynamically intriguing "Karon Crowder." Both Blanchett and Swinton received kudos from the Globes and SAG.


Ronan and Keener round out the list in the typical "who is else is getting runner up or one-time nodded?" category. Keener receives the SAG nom while Ronan didn't, and it was the other way around for the Globes, which was strange since SAG typically goes younger before any other precursor. Knowing this, I think Ronan is the most likely to get bumped from the list and replaced by either one of her film counterparts (probably Redgrave) or Julia Roberts/Ruby Dee for Charlie Wilson's War and American Gangster, respectively. Dee needs American Gangster to get a BP nod for any hope, and Roberts just needs blind luck or a Golden Globe miracle. It feels like Keener is in though. I mean, she got the nod in 2005 for a less than outstanding performance in Capote, so who is to stop her this year?

The race has definitely thinned down, and would have been more interesting if Sweeney Todd's Helena Bonham Carter would have been campaigned supporting instead of lead, but it's whatever. I've moved on.

Later Players.

New Digs and Predicts!

Two Things:

1. You will notice that I have completely overhauled the blog. Now it doesn't look like a children's toy box, which really is quite wonderful. Hope you enjoy!

2. I have updated the sidebar with the Supporting Actress Nominees that I believe, as of now, will earn the coveted title "Oscar Nominee." I will be updating the sidebar as I go along and profile "The Players" of each race over the next few days. Right now I could go ahead with the write-up on these lovely supporting ladies, but it's four o'clock in the morning and I am going to pretend to sleep now. So instead, here is the early sidebar to sustain your Oscar-sized hunger.

Later Players.

Alright...Time To Do This Again

Life has recently taken a liking to forcefully slapping me with as many hardships as possible, so the blog has taken a liking to being completely ignored for the upkeep of my sanity.

But now I'm back!

Coming in the next few weeks before the nominations are released will be a breakdown of the categories that is much needed. The last time I updated them was in October methinks so the sidebar needs some revamping. Some things look like they have stayed the same (No Country, Atonement, etc etc) but some of my early year picks were just horrendous (Reservation Road....nuff said...I'm sorry!) and MUST be reevaluated.

That's first on the list along with some reviews. It looks like I might be helping realbuzz.com with some reviewing duties so I will be sure to link from here.

Alright. More soon.

Later Players

Chart Updates....

Full updates on the side bar. The year is looking to be extremely interesting. I will be breaking down the categories soon, when time opens up a little bit. Starting with Best Actress.

What do you guys think of the predicts?

Jon Stewart!!!!!

While I loved Ellen (who couldn't) I am thrilled with Jon Stewart taking the hosting duties this year. Especially given the politically charged movies this year. Can't wait.

Updates on predicts after Toronto.

P.S. Word on the street is that Reservation Road is freaking awesome. I have been predicting this since I heard about the cast, and even the awful poster and stupid trailer couldn't turn me off. Lovin' this!



Awful poster. Check out Awardsdaily.com for a full panning of this one sheet.

Updates and Questions

I will be updating the side bar and running some profiles and thoughts on the major contenders pretty soon.

Classes are starting here so things are hectic. But I promise I'll get around to it.

Thanks.

For now, what do you guys think about this season? Have any ideas about sleeper noms or clear frontrunner? Who is a shoe-in? Who needs some help?

P.S. I'm lovin' that "Atonement" got some raves from its first screening. More on that later.

Superbad

Well, I have found a group of comic actors with the stick together qualities of the Vince Vaughn-Owen Wilson-Will Ferrell clique that I don't actually hate. The Judd Apatow group is the new Ferrell group, and they didn't just replace, they freakin' out performed!

Superbad, the new Seth Rogen penned comedy featuring the ever hilarious Jonah Hill (Knocked Up) and Michael Cera (Arrested Development), is the funniest movie of the summer. A throwback to the Dazed and Confused movies where high school students act like the hedonistic characters they are, Superbad is SuperAwesome! Taking place in just one day, the story focuses on Seth and Evan's quest for alcohol, popularity, and of course, vagina.

Starting right off the bat with some of the most original (and let's admit it....hilarious) shock humor to grace the silver screen, the movie quickly becomes a fascinating exploration of a truly unique relationship. While initially Seth and Evan live in a world where nothing but women matter, the truth, as it usually does, reveals itself: the only people they really care about are each other. Unfortunately the scripts only weak point is the transition into said emotional area. It was break neck! Funny one second, dramatic whiplash the next. Fortunately the tangible chemistry between the two not only saves the impractical scene, but makes us care as well.

Rogen's cop and the formidable "Fogell" add some incredibly entertaining supporting characters, but that is their only real role: blatant humor ("I have a boner!") The acting across the board achieves what it is supposed to: a believable cast of high school students who actually act their age. And the script and director fortunately do their jobs as well: avoiding self-importance, and existing as if they don't at all.

The bottom line is, Superbad is hilarious, and fun. And if you can get past the randomly indulgent spat near the beginning of the third act, then the movie is damn near perfect. See it!

RATING: B+

The Lovely Bones

Alright, I know this is way premature, but I am loving the casting for the 2008 project The Lovely Bones, adapted from Alice Sebold nearly infamous book about a little girl who is raped and murdered, spending her time after death watching her family cope.

Let's run this down:

Peter Jackson is directing - Hopefully it stays under 3 hours

Rachel Weisz and Ryan Gosling are the grieving parents - LOVE both of these actors and with Half Nelson and The Constant Gardner giving them both Oscar attention in the last few years, they will be on the radar REAL fast.

Susan Sarandon as the grandmother - If she doesn't win for In The Valley Of Elah this year, then she very well might next year. This role is an amazingly baity role.

Saoirse Ronan as Susie, the victim - If the attention for Atonement isn't the perfect momentum going into this role, then I don't know what is. If her performance this year gets enough attention, little Ronan could be looking at back to back nods.

AND MY FAVORITE!!!

STANLEY TUCCI as George Harvey, the killer - SO HAPPY! After one of his best (and totally underrated) performances last year in The Devil Wears Prada, Tucci looked to breaking out of his job as the actor who's face you know but not his name. This is the best role in the movie, and he is already my front-runner for winning in 2008.

I know all of this is premature, but I'm lovin' it.

The Kite Runner

The fact of the matter is, really famous books have a history of not doing so well at the Oscars (Cold Mountain, Memoirs Of A Geisha), while little known ones do better.

I'm nervous about this one, but the trailer is hot like fire, and the setting is political and very current so who knows?

Reservation Road Trailer

Well apparently YouTube has taken down the trailer, so here is another link to check it out. Don't understand why Focus Features would take it down, but that's that I suppose.

Check it out here

Here We Go Again!

So as some of you know, I don't really believe in making predictions for the following year right after the awards show is over, so I usually end up holding off until festival season to get my first round of predictions up.

I will be doing a profile of each major category as I get to it, but I have a my first round of predics on the sidebar.

Next post should be focusing on the supporting categories.

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Final Predictions

Best Picture: The Departed

Best Director: Martin Scorsese

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker

Best Actress: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson

Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Departed

Best Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Animated Feature: Cars

Best Oringinal Score: The Queen

Best Documentary Feauture: An Inconvienant Truth

Best Foreign Film: Pan's Labyrinth

Best Editing: The Departed

Best Art Direction: Dreamgirls

Best Original Song: Listen, Dreamgirls

Best Sound Editing: POTC: Dead Man's Chest

Best Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls

Best Costume Design: Dreamgirls

Best Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth

Best Visual Effects: POTC: Dead Man's Chest

Best Cinematography: Children Of Men

Best Documentary Short: The Blood of Yingzhou District

Best Live Action Short Film: West Bank Story

Best Animated Short Film: The Little Match Girl

Time To Break The Silence...

So, its pretty boring right now, the race I mean. The acting categories are pretty tied up and the only major category that is truly open is Best Picture. I change my mind depending on what day it is. I don't want to do a piece drawing out and talking about each and every nominee in the major categories because really, if you are reading this, you have read it before.

So I'll do some quick breakdowns rather than a category by category analysis that ends up the same as everything else you have read.

Best Director: It's Marty, not even Clint can upset this year.

Best Actor: Nothing has the power Forest Whitaker portrayed, but watch out for a Peter O'Toole steal for simply being overdue. Would LOVE a Ryan Gosling shock, but it's not possible.

Best Actress: You know already. Mirren trounces all.

Best Supporting Actress: J-Hud wins it despite being the fourth or fifth best performance in the category. Rinko or Cate should win, but watch for an Abigail Breslin shocker.

Best Supporting Actor: More open than people think. Eddie Murphy wins it barely. Stealing it from the hands of Jackie Earle Haley and veteran Alan Arkin. All good stories though.

Best Picture: Babel v. The Departed v. LMS v. Letters v. The Queen. Column later. Too open to quick-ify.


So there it is ladies and gents. However, I have been writing an Oscar series for The Daily Texan which I will post here as well. This series seeks to bring some awareness to the GOOD categories that are not hyped enough. Tech categories are Oscars too people.

From The Daily Texan:

Seeing that it's Oscar week, papers should be littered with articles breaking down the regular races of Best Picture, Best Director and the major acting categories. In an effort to recognize the under-appreciated, this week the Daily Texan will break down some of the best categories that no one talks about. We start with Cinematography, the process of lighting scenes and making specific camera choices to create an overall look for a motion picture, as part one in our series.

And the nominees for Best Cinematography are...

"The Black Dahlia," Vilmos Zsigmond - Three-time nominee and 1977 winner for his work on "Close Encounters Of The Third Kind," Zsigmond should be recognized; he is nominated for his work on the less-than-critically-acclaimed "The Black Dahlia." Zsigmond's work, which seemed to be the only worthwhile aspect of the film in the eyes of critics, is a standout. His expertly crafted Hollywood filmnoir throwback is gorgeous and is worthy of nomination, but the film's poor reputation will keep it at just that: a nomination.

"The Prestige," Wally Pfister - With beautiful lighting and expertly conceived angles, this year's first foray into the realm of magic is a sight to see. For his second nomination - the first for last year's "Batman Begins" -Pfister frames a field of light bulbs, reveals the dark realms of a magician's back stage and executes a steady decline of light as the film gets progressively more morose in such a precise manner that audiences can't help but be caught up in the magic.

"The Illusionist," Dick Pope - First-time nominee Dick Pope is responsible for the cinematography of the second magical film of the year, and the film certainly is majestic. Where "The Prestige" focuses on the glitz and glamour of magic, "The Illusionist" is all about the environment. Pope creates a brilliant landscape by displaying forests in lonely glum shades and casting characters in a light that reflects their hope and despair.

"Pan's Labyrinth," Guillermo Navarro - Also a first-timer at the Academy Awards, Navarro is responsible for one of the most visually stunning movies of the year. "Pan's Labyrinth" poses an interesting problem: how does a film combine the real and the imaginative without separating them to
the point at which significance is lost? Navarro provides a perfect answer, a gloomy fantasy world that differs in no way from the violence of the real world portrayed in the film. And for such a perfect answer, Navarro has been rewarded.

"Children Of Men," Emmanuel Lubezki - Garnering his fourth nomination for his astonishing work on "Children Of Men," Lubezki should expect to take home the gold for the first time. Lubeski not only matches war-torn London's tone of sadness and chaos, he embraces it. Creating a mood that is powerful, disturbing, glum and, in the end, enlightening,Lubeski exceeds expectations. It is both bleak and brilliant.

Who will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, "Children of Men."

That is all.

Let The Fun Begin

The time has come for a category-by-category breakdown of how things should go come Oscar night. I will write by first one starting with the supporting categories tonight and continue to follow those up throughout the next week.

Expect a column about potential upsets in each category because, while we all like to be right in our predictions, it is more fun if we can get one of those Adrien Brody-like shocks. And this year is not nearly as locked down as people think it is. Trust Me.

Check back tonight for more.

Back To It

Been a little tied up here in TX, so updating was a bit of a last concern.

The updates on the side include the asterisks by who I think the winners are as of now, but I do think that will change quite a bit.

I will predict now, that I believe Judi Dench is going to put up quite a fight for that Oscar and could win ina similar fashion to Adrien Brody beating Daniel Day Lewis a few years back. After nominations were released, she was the only one that anybody could talk about on the morning shows. Very interesting.

Best Picture is wide open, and I will say Little Miss Sunshine for now, but honestly don't believe its possible. I think its The Queen, Letters From Iwo Jima, or The Departed.

Look for a column tomorrow.

Holy shit!
No Dreamgirls
No Bill Condon
No Jack Nicolson!

More later....


Holy shit.

Final Predictions

Tomorrow is the day we have been waiting for. Personally, I find this day more exciting than the actual ceremony, which usually is pretty predictable by the time it rolls around.

Final Predicitions...including technical categories (ugh)

Best Picture:
- Babel
- Dreamgirls
- The Departed
- The Queen
- Little Miss Sunshine

Best Director:
- Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
- Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Babel
- Stephen Frears, The Queen
- Martin Scorsese, The Departed
- Paul Greengrass, United 93

Best Actor:
- Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
- Peter O'Toole, Venus
- Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
- Will Smith, The Pursuit Of Happyness
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed

Best Actress:
- Helen Mirren, The Queen
- Judi Dench, Notes On A Scandal
- Kate Winslet, Little Children
- Penelope Cruz, Volver
- Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Best Supporting Actor:
- Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
- Jack Nicholson, The Departed
- Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
- Djimon Housou, Blood Diamond
- Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children

Best Supporting Actress:
- Abigail Bresling, Little Miss Sunshine
- Cate Blanchett, Notes On A Scandal
- Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
- Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
- Adriana Barraza, Babel

Best Original Screenplay:
- United 93
- Little Miss Sunshine
- The Queen
- Babel
- Volver

Best Adapted Screenplay:
- The Departed
- Little Children
- Notes On A Scandal
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Thank You For Smoking

Foreign Film:
- The Lives Of Others, Germany
- Water, Canada
- Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico
- Volver, Spain
- Days Of Glory, Algeria

Documentary:
- Jesus Camp
- An Inconvienant Truth
- Deliver Us From Evil
- Iraq In Fragments
- Shut Up & Sing

Animated Feature Film:
- Happy Feet
- Cars
- Monster House

Cinematography:
- Apocalypto
- Children Of Men
- Babel
- The Good Shepherd
- Pan's Labyrinth

Editing:
- United 93
- Dreamgirls
- The Queen
- Babel
- The Departed

Art Direction:
- Marie Antoinette
- Dreamgirls
- Children Of Men
- Curse Of the Golden Flower
- Pan's Labyrinth

Costume Design:
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Dreamgirls
- Marie Antoinette
- Curse Of the Golden Flower
- The Painted Veil

Best Original Score:
- Babel
- Notes On A Scandal
- The Painted Veil
- The Fountain
- The Good German

Best Original Song:
- Never Gonna Break My Faith, Bobby
- Listen, Dreamgirls
- The Song Of The Heart, Happy Feet
- I Need To Wake Up, An Inconvenient Truth
- A Father's Way, The Pursuit Of Happyness

Sound Mixing:
- Casino Royale
- Dreamgirls
- Babel
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Flags Of Our Fathers

Sound Editing:
- Cars
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Superman Returns
- Flags Of Our Fathers
- Poseidon

Best Visual Effects:
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Superman Returns
- X-Men: The Last Stand

Best Makeup:
- Apocalypto
- Pan's Labyrinth
- Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

PGA Reveals Wide Open Race

Sasha Stone at Oscarwatch is reporting that Little Miss Sunshine won today's PGA, beating out Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, and The Queen for the distinction. In previous year the PGA has been pretty accurate predicting the eventual winner, but the last two years it selected Brokeback Mountain and The Aviator for its top prize. And as we all know, The Aviator lost to Million Dollar Baby and Brokeback Mountain lost to Crap....cough....Crash.

The race is wide open, ladies and gentlemen. The Departed snagged Critics Choice, Babel and Dreamgirls roped in the Globes, PGA for Little Miss Sunshine, and probably the BAFTA for The Queen.

I could be bothered by the confusion of this race because I like to be right, but honestly, a little drama is desperately needed since the other categories have become increasingly predictable.

Final Predictions Tomorrow.

Top Ten Films Of 2006

10. United 93

Paul Greengrass' docudrama depicting the awful events of September 11th and the powerful events on flight United 93 is one of the years most astonishing efforts. Taking an unknown cast (some of them were playing themselves), and a seemingly camera-in-hand view point, Greengrass was able to create a disturbingly real account of the flight that fought back, giving us chills at almost every scene. The precision of direction, brilliant nuance and reality of the screenplay, and the prowess of the ensemble give this film a reason to be seen, despite the fears that keep many of us from seeing it.

9. Brick

Bringing an entire genre back to life is nearly impossible, and doing it well is unheard of. Rian Johnson's feature is one of the finest indie efforts of the year, as it brings the horror of high school to a whole new level. Brick brings back film noir with scary ease: placing the story in a modern high school, but still supplying the ever needed drug scandals, gang wars, a dame who has trouble written all over her, and of course, one hell of a mystery. Joseph Gordon Levitt is powerful as hell with his disturbingly emotional, yet detached portrayal that makes us forget about that little sitcom he used to be in. After last year's Mysterious Skin, and now this, I can't wait to see what he does next

8. Dreamgirls

This year's Oscar frontrunner deserves the acclaim. Dreamgirls has the power of Chicago without the cynicism. Jennifer Hudson steals the show as Effie White and proves that you can change that ever sticking prefix of "American Idoler"...to "Oscar Winner." Beyonce holds her own, and lets the glitz and glamour of the movie take power. With one of the most entertaining films of the year, Bill Condon has crafted campy fun that gets stuck in your head and just won't leave. Which is maybe why I have been listening to the Soundtrack as much as I have. The film has it all with its bitchy humor, angry drama, and of course, Beyonce saying "fuck." The only thing I don't like about this movie is the fact that Anika Noni Rose hasn't gotten more appraisal.

7. Superman Returns

When Bryan Singer left the X-Man series, many were confused. Especially when they heard he left it for Superman. But when X-3 released and disappointed, but Superman Returns released and thrilled, no one was surprised anymore. This year's Batman Begins, Superman Returns is the best popcorn flick of the year. Adding depth and intelligence to what was thought to be a dead series is never easy, but on the shoulders of new-comer Brandon Routh, it is a task all too easy for Superman. Routh portrays the humanity of Superman, never letting the giant "S" on his chest turn him into a caricature, and ultimately proves that audiences don't love superheroes just being superheroes, but rather...superheroes being human.

6. The Queen

Helen Mirren is having quite a royal year. Winning multiple awards for her dual performances as Queen Elizabeth I in the HBO miniseries, and Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen, she has cemented her role as Oscar Frontrunner. Carrying this film like Philip Seymour Hoffman carried Capote, Helen Mirren delivers the performance of a lifetime. Showing power in restraint like we have never seen before, Mirren deserves all the accolades she receives. But Mirren doesn't carry the entire film. A flawless screenplay that integrates real life footage with possibly fictional events, The Queen paints a picture we can't help but believe, and love. Delving into the themes of hope, despair, and ultimately responsibility, the multiple layers to The Queen are phenomenal.

5. Half Nelson

At the end of Sundance last year, there was no doubt that Little Miss Sunshine and Half Nelson had major Oscar potential. Ryan Gosling delivers a haunting performance as a crack addicted teacher who has his secret addiction discovered by one his students played by Shareeka Epps. Epps delivers the best acting of year by someone under the age of 15. Yes, even better than Abigail Breslin. Epps carries a silent power and judgement that commands the screen. This teacher-student drama flips the black and white expectations of this over-used genre by switching the roles of what is expected, thus giving viewers an unexpectedly realistic version of the real drama between an afflicted teacher and his pupils. Gosling delivers the performance of the year with subtlety and regret, creating an atmosphere of despair and tangled responsibility. Half Nelson is a beautiful effort with more complexity than one would expect.

4. Shortbus

The so-called "hardcore" film of the year, Shortbus is a beautiful gem of a film exploring the interlinking lives of the sexually frustrated in New York City. Delving into personal troubles felt worldwide, Shortbus can be admired by anyone who has ever felt anything for anybody. The film has been railed for being near pornographic, but a film that has a central theme of openness and acceptance of one's body and its sexually capabilities certainly wouldn't take the hypocritical stance of being prudish with the topic of sex now would it? It is a beautiful medley of strange, wonderful, lonely, and ultimately fulfillment.

3. The Departed

Martin Scorsese is back, ladies and gentleman. For the first time since Goodfellas, I actually liked Scorsese. This high-speed, high-tension film is so intense that it's almost too much to handle sometimes. If you find a way to relax during the last thirty minutes of the movie, you are not human. But The Departed is not just a high energy joy ride, it is the stuff of real life. With surprising moments of drama, tension, and pain, The Departed transcends the realm of crime thriller and becomes something by itself all together, without a category to exist in. Vera Farmiga delivers the most under appreciated performance of the year, and acts as the sole female to bring conscience to such a violent and heavy headed film. From its unexpected hilarity to its very expected violence, The Departed has it all, and is not afraid to show it.

2. Little Children

Little Children is proof that brilliant film making will be unrecognized if the campaign isn't right. This powerhouse satirical melodrama, mostly recognized for acting and its screenplay, is one of the defining films of 2006. In a time where more and more adults are acting foolishly, and thus regretting the decisions that make up their lives, Little Children seems much more important than other films. With a bone chilling performance, Jackie Earle Haley keeps this movie from being the adultery-filled will-he-leave-her-or-wont-he movie audiences have seen for years. Little Children tosses together a medley of characters with such a degree of self-involvement , that by the end of the movie the difference between the actual children who play on the playground and the adults is entirely clear, and it does so beautifully. Teaching us, with glorified satire, that life is responsibility, not entitlement.

1. Children Of Men

2006's best film is, without question, Children Of Men. Clive Owen stars in this sci-fi thinker set in 2027, 18 years after the last child was born on Earth. The world is in shambles, but the pregnancy of one young girl brings hope and power into the hands of the protagonists. At first, Children Of Men is simply intriguing, but soon becomes so much more. With the subtle inter-play of all-too-real war zones, we are forced to visualize a future where destruction and chaos is not only prevalent, it is the norm. Children Of Men, is the powerful political force that other films like V For Vendetta tried to be. It teaches us to be human and enjoy that humanity because our actions might one day, for the first time in history, bring an era where the future is not endless. By creating a world where disarray and misconduct are caused supernaturally, Children Of Men makes the War we wage today seem not only pointless, but ridiculous simply because it is a path that was chosen and taken knowingly.With a beautiful score, haunting screenplay, an creepy art direction/cinematography, Children Of Men is an aching achievement of film that never becomes preachy, but just strives to show the importance of life inside the microcosm of sterility. Brilliant.

Update...

Will have Top Ten tonight....

....finally

Sorry....

I know I had a pretty tight schedule for this week, but I couldn't really update because believe it or not...Austin, TX has been under an inch of ice for about two days. I just got internet back, so I will catch up as soon as possible.

I am ditching the Worst Films piece and the Readers Choice piece as well. The others will still be completed, but I need a little time.

Sorry for the inconvenience.

Globe Predictions

Keeping it short...

PICTURE DRAMA: The Departed
Alternate: Babel
PICTURE COMEDY/MUSICAL: Dreamgirls
Alternate: Borat
ACTRESS DRAMA: Helen Mirren
Alternate: Judi Dench
ACTRESS COMEDY: Meryl Streep
Alternate: Beyonce Knowles
ACTOR DRAMA: Forest Whitaker
Alternate: Peter O'Toole
ACTOR COMEDY: Sacha Baron Cohen
Alternate: Aaron Eckhart
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Hudson
Alternate: Rinko Kikuchi
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Eddie Murphy
Alternate: Brad Pitt
DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese
Alternate: Eastwood (Letters)
ANIMATED FEATURE: Happy Feet
Alternate: Cars
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Letters From Iwo Jima
Alternate: Pan's Labyrinth
SCREENPLAY: Babel
Alternate: The Queen
ORIGINAL SCORE: Babel
Alternate: The Fountain
ORIGINAL SONG: "Listen"
Alternate: "Never Gonna Break My Faith"

Top Ten Films Later Tonight...

The Guilds Have Spoken...

Well, things certainly took a turn after all of the Guilds released their nominations. Who would have thought that in one week, Clint Eastwood's films...both of them...would suddenly be shut out and thus severely hurt in the Oscar race?

Also, who would have thought that Babel would suddenly become a serious contender for a win in the Best Picture category, especially if it takes home the Globe like a lot of people are saying it will. A Globe shock over The Departed will make Babel a serious contender with Scorsese's film and the ever-waning Dreamgirls.

I will be adding Screenplay categories and will do a complete prediction (including techs) before the Oscars. The WGA tossed some confusion in the mix with its nomination of Borat in the Adapted category instead of the Original category. If the AMPAS ate this film up like many think it did, then we could see Borat nominated in the Adapted category, pushing out much more deserving films like Children of Men, Little Children, or Thank You For Smoking.

Things that would be surprises that I would like to see happen:

Best Picture for Children of Men
Best Director for Del Toro
Best Actor for Clive Owen
Best Actress WIN for Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor for Ben Affleck
Best Supporting Actress for either Emily Blunt or Toni Collette

With the nods in the Guild world being finished, it appears like these things won't happen, which is why they would be surprises.

Here is the schedule for the next week:

Monday: Top Ten Films of 2006
Tuesday: Worst Films of 2006
Wednesday: 1st Annual Opened Envelope Awards
Thursday: Reader's Choice Awards
Friday: Final Breakdown of Predictions

You might have realized that Thursday is the announcement for Reader's Choice. This means that you, as readers...need to choose. Please give a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for each of the major six categories...I would love if you guys included screenplay, but if it is too much then don't worry about it.

ROCK IT!

Complete Acting Updates!

Bout time I overhauled these categories. With the SAGs, Globes, and BFCAs releasing their nominations, we have just about all the information we can get on the acting categories. The ballots for Oscar nominees will already be in when any of these awards are given out, so their is no real point in waiting.

Best Actor

Forest Whitaker The Last King Of Scotland
Will Smith The Pursuit of Happyness
Peter O'Toole Venus
Ryan Gosling Half Nelson
Leonardo Dicaprio The Departed

The Breakdown...

Whitaker is the obvious front runner with almost everyone critical precursor and the nods at the majors backing his performance as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Many are saying that this feels a lot like the runaway victory the Hoffman had last year, but don't underestimate the power of the older AMPAS voter. Will Smith could upset this race with a touchy-feely performance in The Pursuit of Happyness that Oscar voters just tend to melt over. Peter O'Toole is locked in for a nod here and could upset as well under the pretense of being overdue. He's been nominated 7 times and never won. Gosling got the SAG and BFCA nod he needed to stay in the race and his likelihood for a nomination can be described as being the weakest lock a lock can be. The only reason the Dicaprio is so low on this list is because of the deadly beasts of category confusion and split voting. SAG honored his lead performance in Blood Diamond and his performance The Departed...but in the supporting category. Many say his role in the much more popular The Departed will get the nod over his silly accented performance in Blood Diamond, but if voters split their decision over which film he should be nominated for then Leo could be shut out of the category completely.

Important: If Dicaprio gets shut out then look for a surprise nod to either Ken Watanabe, Aaron Eckhart, or Sacha Baron Cohen.


Best Actress

Helen Mirren The Queen
Judi Dench Notes On A Scandal
Meryl Streep The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet Little Children
Penelope Cruz Volver

The Breakdown...

Really nothing to talk about here in terms of nominations. The category is boring with little room for surprise. One can only hope that Toni Collete could get a nod here, but that is VERY VERY unlikely. These ladies are locked, but the win is not nearly as obvious as people think. Consider the case of Daniel Day Lewis and Adrien Brody a few years ago. People get tired of the same person winning over and over. I'm just saying.


Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson Dreamgirls
Cate Blanchett Notes On A Scandal
Rinko Kikuchi Babel
Adriana Barraza Babel
Abigail Breslin Little Miss Sunshine

The Breakdown...

Well the top three of this category are locked for nods. Hudson, Blanchett, and Kikuchi have shared the precursor love, but Hudson still looks to be the frontrunner for her show-stealing performance as Effie White in Dreamgirls. Blanchett is looking for her second Oscar in three years, but Kikuchi is breaking into the scene for a powerhouse performance as a deaf-mute in Babel. The complexity of her character is jarring and how an actress can steal focus away from Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett without saying a word is beyond me. Barraza has the heart of the movie though, and the Babel girls are looking to nominated as a pair like they have been for the BFCA, SAG, and Globe. Breslin really is an iffy prediction right now seeing as the consensus is that Catherine O'Hara will get the fifth spot. But I think Bresling benefits not only from her SAG nod, but also O'Hara's snub at both the Globes and SAGs. Breslin gets stronger with her SAG nod, but more importantly with the weakening of her competition.


Supporting Actor

Eddie Murphy Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley Little Children
Alan Arkin Little Miss Sunshine
Djimon Hounsou Blood Diamond


The Breakdown...

This is easily the hardest category to predict. Murphy is the only real lock here since he is the only one nominated at all three of the majors. Nicholson missed out on the SAG but some can argue that happened because Dicaprio pushed him out. Nicholson will get the nomination because AMPAS loves him more than the HFPA love Renee Zelwegger or Scarlett Johansson. They had him announce Best Picture last year for no reason other than they thought he would look cool...he's a lock too. After this...it gets pretty confusing. Jackie Earle Haley is the critical darling of the year and has six awards to back that up. The role is baity as hell, he has the SAG nod, and he is a great comeback story too. I think he's in. Alan Arkin fits the mold of this category exceedingly well. This is the category where voters feel alright giving the award away to someone who is "overdue." They awarded George Clooney when he didn't deserve to win, and the same goes for Morgan Freeman, and Tim Robbins of the previous years. His performance is not one of the best supporting performance of the year, or even that movie, but he will get the nomination. Finally, Djimon Hounsou will shock a lot of people come announcement time by grabbing the fifth spot away from Pitt, Affleck, Sheen, Beach, and Wahlberg. He won the NBR, got a BFCA nod, and a SAG as well. His performance is one of the only good things about that film, but it is great. He should be honored here like he was for In America a few years ago.



This is so freakin exciting, and barring any major shifts in buzz or category shifting, these should be near my final predictions for nominations. I might get nervous about Supporting Actor and change it up, but who knows?

Comments? Questions? Feel Free...

Best Picture Gets A Shuffle...

With the announcements of the SAG and PGA nominations, Letters From Iwo Jima is not nearly as locked as people think it is. Having a lower profile Foreign Film Globe nod, no notice at the Producer's guild, and the complete shutout at the SAGs is not a very good sign for it's chances at the Kodak. Many pegged it as a front runner after its NBR win earlier this season, but the focus has shifted to Dreamgirls and The Departed instead. Babel gets a HUGE boost to with the leading number of Globe nominations, a SAG ensemble nod, and the PGA. Same goes for Little Miss Sunshine as well. Suddenly it appears like the lineup for Best Picture might exclude Clint Eastwood's counterpart to the mediocre Flags Of Our Fathers, but is Letters another Munich? Munich failed to reach a PGA or a Globe nod and appeared dead in the water, but still got the nod come Oscar time.

DGA and WGA announcements should give us some more perspective.

Predictions Update: Best Picture

This race is started to become exceedingly predictable, as are most categories around this time of year. Most pundits can accurately guess four nominees that are considered locked, and then comes the question of the coveted fifth spot. Since discussing the locked nature of The Departed, The Queen, Dreamgirls, and Letters From Iwo Jima is pretty much a boring affair, and would not make for an interesting entry, I thought a profile of the few films grasping for that fifth slot would be a little more interesting.

Babel

The HFPA certainly gave this film a huge boost when they released their Golden Globe nominations and Babel is trying to ride that wave all the way to the nomination ceremony. However, I don't think Oscar voters are stupid enough not to realize that the Hollywood Foreign Press is obviously going to love a Hollywood made movie that happens to be set in four different foreign countries. The film screams Golden Globe, but its divisive "love it hate it" nature will keep it from taking a slot in the top five. Ultimately the film will have the same kind of support that 21 Grams did: huge kudos for the acting, a definite screenplay nomination, along with a possible win with score.

Flags Of Our Fathers

Really even mentioning this film in the top five has become a laughable affair. At one time, Flags was the film that fight Dreamgirls for the top spot...and then it released. Mediocre critical response, awful box office generation, and no mention outside the Satellite nominations in precursors keep this film from entering the top five. I even pondered whether or not I should even mention this film in this entry because a nomination for Flags would signal the end in my Oscar predicting career in the form of a boycott.

Little Miss Sunshine

Now it comes to the serious contenders. Little Miss Sunshine feels like a mix of Munich and Capote of last year: a smaller film that looked stronger as the awards season continued yet is still in question because of a few fatal flaws in the film. While it is charming as all hell, the fact of the matter is that it is not the "comedy" that people think it is. It feels like The Royal Tenenbaums redux: a well-done, underachieving, dark, slightly comedic look into a family and their journey for fulfillment. However, Little Miss Sunshine has been running the most creative campaign the Oscar race has seen in years: a yellow VW has been driving around Santa Monica with "Little Best Picture" plastered on the side. As we saw with Terrence Howard last year, the best campaign wins when it comes to nominations.

United 93

But what about Paul Greengrass's extraordinary docu-depiction of the flight that fought back? United 93 would be considered the critical darling of the year if The Departed didn't exist. It has certainly put its footprint in the critics awards with winning New York, Utah, Dallas, etc, but the fact of the matter is that not many people saw the movie outside of those critics. It is the opinion of this writer that United 93 should be considered a contender for winning best picture, but unfortunately most of the consensus is that the movie is a better directed film than a film all together. I would not be surprised if Greengrass scored a nomination for Director, but the film missed as a whole.

Ultimately the question is: what is more important to Oscar voters, a well established campaign for a movie with a very strong fanbase, or better executed film that concentrates on a sensitive subject that has little following but stronger critical support?

In the end the best campaign wins, and Little Miss Sunshine will grab the nod.

Breakdown:

The Departed
Dreamgirls
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen